Week 13 Fantasy Football Projections: Predicting Top Performers at Each Position

Week 12 was defined by Bill Belichick "taking the wind," the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings "kissing their sister" and the San Diego Chargers shockingly winning late against the Kansas City Chiefs.

For fantasy owners, Week 12 was all about Josh Gordon and Knowshon Moreno exceeding 200 yards receiving and rushing, respectively, a Philip Rivers blitzkrieg against a normally sound Kansas City defense and Jimmy Graham continuing to be one of the NFL's most dangerous weapons.

So what can we look forward to in Week 13? Who will be the top performers in fantasy leagues? 

Let's find out.

Notes: All point totals for standard-scoring leagues. Points against stats via ESPN.

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Matt Stafford	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	26
2	Tony Romo	Dallas Cowboys	Oakland Raiders	25
3	Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	22
4	Robert Griffin III	Washington	New York Giants	20
5	Tom Brady	New England Patriots	Houston Texans	19

Breaking Down Matt Stafford

With few surprises in the top five—well, unless you think Peyton Manning against the Chiefs and Drew Brees against the Seattle Seahawks, both on the road, should be top-five quarterbacks—we'll focus on the man who I think will lead all quarterbacks this week, Matt Stafford.

The Detroit Lions' gunslinger hasn't scored less than 14 fantasy points this season, a remarkable stretch of consistency, and he faces a Green Bay Packers defense that has given up 19 or more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks five times.

Worse, you just know they don't have an answer for Calvin Johnson. And while Stafford was held to his season-low 14-point performance against the Packers in Week 14, that was at Lambeau Field. In Detroit, Stafford is averaging 20.4 fantasy points per game. 

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Adrian Peterson	Minnesota Vikings	Chicago Bears	24
2	Matt Forte	Chicago Bears	Minnesota Vikings	22
3	Frank Gore	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	20
4	Eddie Lacy	Green Bay Packers	Detroit Lions	19
5	Marshawn Lynch	Seattle Seahawks	New Orleans Saints	17

 

Breaking Down Eddie Lacy

Again, there aren't many surprises in the top five at running back, so we'll take a closer look at Eddie Lacy, the rookie who has made himself an elite option for fantasy owners.

Since Green Bay's Week 4 bye, Lacy's scored eight or more points in every week, reaching double-digit production six times. Even with Aaron Rodgers out and teams able to focus more intently on the running game, he's produced 60 points over the past four weeks.

And he'll likely be without Rodgers on Thanksgiving, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN:

Now, he faces a Detroit Lions team that allowed him to rush for 99 yards on 23 carries in Week 5. With the Packers needing a healthy running game to keep pace with a dangerous Detroit offense, expect Lacy to carry the load and rack up fantasy points in the process.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	23
2	Josh Gordon	Cleveland Browns	Jacksonville Jaguars	20
3	A.J. Green	Cincinnati Bengals	San Diego Chargers	19
4	Brandon Marshall	Chicago Bears	Minnesota Vikings	18
5	Dez Bryant	Dallas Cowboys	Oakland Raiders	16

Breaking Down Josh Gordon

Likely the only thing I really need to write here is that Gordon faces the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team 18th in passing yards allowed per game and one that has allowed 20 or more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers seven times this season.

I suppose I could also mention that Gordon is coming off of a huge performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers, finishing with 14 receptions for 237 yards and a touchdown off of 17 targets. Or that he's now scored double-digit fantasy points in consecutive weeks and six times this season.

And hey, if you still aren't convinced, I could throw it out there that he's just one of two compelling offensive weapons the Browns have—Jordan Cameron is pretty darn good, too—and getting him the ball will remain a priority. 

It all adds up to one of fantasy's elite wide receivers. If you were savvy enough to draft him this season, enjoy the ride.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Rob Gronkowski	New England Patriots	Houston Texans	20
2	Jimmy Graham	New Orleans Saints	Seattle Seahawks	17
3	Jason Witten	Dallas Cowboys	Oakland Raiders	15
4	Vernon Davis	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	14
5	Julius Thomas*	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	12

 

Breaking Down Jason Witten

Surprisingly, the normally consistent tight end has been a bit hot and cold this year. In Week 1, he went off for 19 points. The next three weeks combined he scored just 11.

In Week 5 he exploded again for 18 points. The next three weeks, he had seven. 

In Week 9 he had 16 points. In Week 10 he had just two, then went on a bye before blowing up to the tune of 15 points last week. So shouldn't the trends suggest he'll be a flop again next week?

Well, yes, but a matchup against the Oakland Raiders says otherwise, as they've given up seven or more fantasy points to opposing tight ends six times this season and have allowed 17 or more points to tight ends in two of the past three weeks. 

Tony Romo will almost assuredly pick on the 25th-ranked pass defense, which should mean plenty of targets and yards for his trusty tight end on Thanksgiving. 

Defense/Special Teams

Rank	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Carolina Panthers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20
2	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	16
3	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	15
4	Dallas Cowboys	Oakland Raiders	14
5	New England Patriots	Houston Texans	13

Breaking Down the Miami Dolphins

If the New York Jets were smart, they would focus heavily on the running game this week. They have the league's 31st-ranked pass offense, and rookie quarterback Geno Smith has thrown 18 interceptions.

Meanwhile, they face a Miami Dolphins team that is ranked 14th in pass defense and 11th in sacks with 32. The Dolphins generate excellent pressure from the defensive line and should be able to force Smith into mistakes when he is facing obvious passing downs.

The Jets have been very good to opposing defenses, giving up double-digit points seven times this season. If Miami is available in your league and you don't like your primary defense's matchup, snag the Dolphins this week. 

Kickers

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots	Houston Texans	15
2	Dan Bailey	Dallas Cowboys	Oakland Raiders	14
3	Matt Prater	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	12
4	Mason Crosby	Green Bay Packers	Detroit Lions	12
5	Adam Vinatieri	Indianapolis Colts	Tennessee Titans	12

Breaking Down Matt Prater

While Prater's early-season dominance among NFL kickers has slowed considerably, he's still managed seven or more fantasy points nine times this season, a pretty impressive level of consistency.

Sure, you might be worried about a matchup with the Chiefs, but push those concerns to the side—Prater scored 10 points against them in Week 11. As a kicker for the Denver Broncos and their excellent offense, he's essentially matchup proof.

Keep rolling him out with confidence. 

Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy lineup questions, tweet random fantasy musings and propose theories for how Antonio Brown overcame Joe Haden's fantasy kryptonite.