New York Jets vs. Baltimore Ravens: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Baltimore Ravens have won 28 of their last 30 games when they've been lined as favorites at home.

Baltimore is a short home favorite for its game Sunday against former Ravens assistant Rex Ryan and the New York Jets, who have struggled in this matchup dating back two decades.

Point Spread: Ravens opened as three-point favorites; the total was 40.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 19.8-12.3 Ravens

Why the Jets Can Cover the Spread

New York just got bombed in Buffalo but, at 5-5, still clings to the sixth seed in the AFC. The Jets rank eighth in the league in rushing, seventh in total defense and first vs. the run, allowing just 73 yards per game on the ground. In the NFL, teams that out-rush their opponents cover the spread about 65 percent of the time.

Why the Ravens Can Cover the Spread

Baltimore just lost another tough game, this one in overtime on a windy day in Chicago. So while the Ravens are 4-6, five of their losses have come by fewer than seven points. Offensively, Baltimore is still struggling, ranking 27th in rushing at just 83 yards per game. But the defense ranks 13th overall and has kept the team in the game every time out but one.

Their domination as home favorites and 8-1 ATS run against the Jets since 1994 give some comfort to Ravens backers here.

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark computer is predicting that Baltimore will win in a game that plays UNDER its total. However, the Jets have alternated wins and losses each week this season, and they lost last week at Buffalo. So they're due. Take New York to win this game outright.

Trends

• Jets are 1-8 ATS vs Baltimore since 1994
• Ravens 6-1 SU at home to Jets since 1989
• Ravens 28-2 SU past 30 games as home chalk

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.