Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

How bad are the Jaguars that the 2-8 Texans are still double-digit favorites here in Week 12? Houston is on a 6-1 run when hosting Jacksonville, but are also on a 1-6 ATS slide when laying points.

The over has been a cash cow when the Jags are catching points on the road, coming in six of the last seven times.

Point spread: Texans opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 43. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 13.5-3.7 Texans

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Though they're just 1-9 on the year, this is a team that is playing with confidence and only needs to play like it did against Tennessee two weeks ago for its first victory, and that is for all 60 minutes. The Jags scored quickly on Arizona last week, before being shut down. They need to spread the execution over four quarters.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

It's time to unleash punishment and frustration. And if there is one team to do so against, they'll feel it is Jacksonville. The Texans have lost a franchise-record eight straight games after Sunday's 28-23 loss to the Raiders and being familiar with the Jaguars is going to help get this win and cover.

The Jaguars continue to depress fans and bettors alike.

Smart Pick

There is a lot of tension in Houston, which was evident when seeing Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub yelling at one another after Houston's final offensive play. That's fire, not anger. And the Texans are in dire straits for a cohesive, blowout win. The Texans are the smart play in this game, even laying this much chalk.

Trends:

• Texans 6-1 SU past seven at hone to Jaguars
• Jags snapped 10-game losing streak two weeks ago
• OVER is 6-1 past seven games where Jags are double-digit road dogs
• Texans 1-6 ATS past seven games as favorites

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.