Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

Seven of the last nine Dallas Cowboys-New York Giants games have played OVER on the totals.

The Pokes are in New Jersey Sunday to take on the surging Giants, who are trying to become the first team in NFL history to start a season 0-5 or worse and still make the playoffs.

Point spread: Giants opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 46.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 24.1-16.7 Cowboys

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Dallas had last week off, which should help DE DeMarcus Ware's quad, which has been bothering him half the season. The Cowboys are only 5-5, but they're also only a game out of first in the NFC East, and four of those losses basically came by one score or less.

With a little luck they could be 7-3. And Dallas looked pretty good in beating the Giants in the season opener 36-31, holding the G-Men to 50 yards rushing and picking off Eli Manning three times. They also tend to cover the spread following a bye week (7-1 ATS past eight seasons).

Why the Giants can cover the spread

Heads up—New York, after an 0-6 start, has won its last four games in a row, after topping Green Bay Sunday 27-13. Manning seems to be coming around, following a poor start and the defense ranks 11th overall and sixth vs. the run.

It has held foes to a total of 47 points over the last four games. Also, while Dallas won the first meeting between these teams this season, the Giants have won six of the last nine games in this series.

And in the lame NFC East, the Giants still have a chance. It would be history-making, as the 1992 San Diego Chargers are the only team to start 0-4 and make the playoffs, so an 0-6 start constitutes a real long shot.

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark NFL computer predicts the Cowboys will win outright in a game that stays UNDER its total. But New York, as we've come to discover over the past half-dozen seasons or so, is a streaky outfit. And right now, it's on a winning streak.

Also, the Giants have out-gained three of their last four opponents, while Dallas has been out-gained in each of its last three games. Take New York.

Trends:

• Cowboys are 7-1 ATS past eight seasons following a bye week
• Seven of past nine meetings played OVER the total
• Cowboys are 6-2 ATS past eight games as underdog

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.