Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Atlanta Falcons have won eight of the last 10 games in their NFC South rivalry series with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but Atlanta is also 0-5-1 ATS in its last six divisional road games.

The 2-7 Falcons are in Tampa this Sunday to take on the 1-8 Bucs.

Point spread: Falcons opened as 2.5-point favorites, but it was bet back to even odds at one shop monitored by Odds Shark; the total was 43.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer says: 13.6-12.7 Falcons

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Does embarrassment play a factor? Atlanta is going through one of those “lost” seasons that every team experiences from time to time, but there are enough veterans on hand to muster enough team pride to salvage something from this campaign.

QB Matt Ryan can still wing it, and WR Harry Douglas and RB Jacquizz Rodgers are serviceable weapons. Let's not talk about the defense, but focus on Tampa’s lame 3-11 SU run in divisional games.

Why the Bucs can cover the spread

Tampa got their first win on Monday night with a 22-19 victory over Miami. Maybe now that they've broken through, after so many close losses, the Bucs can get rolling. Tampa ranks a respectable 14th in rushing, and the defense ranks fifth vs the run, after holding the Dolphins to two yards rushing. Also, rookie QB Mike Glennon has thrown just one interception in the last four games.

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark computer is predicting an Atlanta victory, but a Tampa cover, in a game that will play UNDER its total. Atlanta has been pretty terrible as of late, losing its last three games by an average of 24 points per.

Meanwhile, the Bucs just played one of their best games of the year. All of which sets up a good “reversal” bet. Take the Falcons.

Trends:

Falcons 0-5-1 ATS past six divisional road games

Bucs 3-11 SU past 14 divisional games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.