College Football's 10 Best Bets for Week 12

Week 12 is a confusing one to handicap—the hangover to last week's exciting slate of games. Few things jump off the page as either "must-see" or "must-bet" affairs.

Still, with a little bit of digging, smart handicappers should be able to uncover hidden specks of value among the the list of not-so-standout games.

You might have to leave your comfort zone—abandoning the familiarity of BCS conferences and high-profile teams—but there are a few lines out there that seem slightly out of whack.

Think carefully before making any plays, but don't be afraid to let it ride.

Spreads courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton (via Vegas Insider).

10. Ohio State at Illinois (+32)

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The Pick: Illinois

I'm aware that this is technically a "best bets" column, but don't feel the need to rush toward your nearest sports book and wager on this game.

In a week devoid of deep value, I am going with a hunch for my No. 10 bet, hoping for two things: (1) That Ohio State is due for a mini-letdown, on the road, after huge blowouts over Penn State and Purdue, and (2) that Illinois might be able to sneak in for a back-door cover.

Oregon's loss at Stanford opened up a slight crack for OSU with regard to its national title hopes. They're still on the outside looking in, but the Buckeyes might not be as desperate for style points as they were a couple of weeks ago.

Even if I'm wrong, though, I think Illinois does enough things well on offense to sneak back in and cover this line late. I just wouldn't bet the farm on it.

9. Oregon State (+13) at Arizona State

The Pick: Arizona State

I trusted the advanced stats last week, believing that Stanford was a better team than Oregon and listing it as one of the best bets to cover as big underdogs.

This week, I'm riding with another darling of the Football Outsiders F/+ rankings: The Arizona State Sun Devils.

According to those numbers, ASU has been the sixth best team in America, better even than Oregon for the year. It is in elite company—joined by just Alabama, Florida State and Baylor—among teams that rank top-12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Oregon State, meanwhile, ranks way down at No. 42. Neither its offense nor its defense is a top-30 unit, and the latter ranks outside the top-50 at No. 54.

If USC—another advanced-stats favorite—could beat the Beavers by 17 points in Corvallis, the Sun Devils should at least be able to match that in Tempe. My money says they exceed it.

8. Georgia Tech (+10.5) at Clemson

The Pick: Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech is the second-best team Clemson has played since the start of September, and the first-best team, Florida State, wiped the floor with it by 37 points in Memorial Stadium.

Granted, the Seminoles are a whole lot better than the Yellow Jackets (and pretty much any other team in the country), this line still still feels a shade too high.

Clemson ranks 23rd in the Football Outsiders F/+ rankings, only slightly ahead of Georgia Tech at No. 27. The Jackets actually have a higher-ranked offense than the Tigers and hold a significant advantage on special teams.

I think Georgia Tech can control the clock with its triple-option attack and at least keep this game within single digits, if not have a chance to win outright at the end.

7. Memphis at South Florida (+1.5)

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The Pick: Memphis

South Florida is slowly—repeat: slowly—starting to play at a low-FBS level instead of a modest FCS one, which I guess helps explain why the Bulls are only giving 1.5 points.

But don't let that trick you. This is still a very bad team that Willie Taggart is coaching in Tampa, Fla., and Memphis has been deceptively competitive.

Both teams are currently 2-6, but the Tigers rank 60th—above teams like undefeated Northern Illinois, Penn State and West Virginia—in Football Outsiders' F/+ rankings. Its defense ranks 27th, higher than undefeated Ohio State.

USF ranks 99th with the No. 118 offense in America. I'm not sure how the Bulls plan on scoring, and I don't think their home-field provides much of an advantage.

Memphis wins by a touchdown.

6. Oklahoma State at Texas (-3)

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The Pick: Oklahoma State

I like-don't-love Oklahoma State as a road team this year, but I hate-don't-like the Longhorns' once-powerful advantage at home.

Texas is 6-0 in conference play and has a realistic shot at winning the conference. After the way this team started the season, a trip to a BCS bowl would count as among the most shocking developments from a major program in quite some time.

That scares me a bit, since Texas fans are football literate and understand the importance of this game. They will get up and get a bit rowdy.

But that won't help their teams' run defense, which I still—despite the coordinator change since getting torched at home by BYU—don't trust a lick against OSU's much-improved rushing attack.

5. Houston (+16.5) at Louisville

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The Pick: Louisville

Houston gave UCF its best shot last Saturday but came up short at the goal line on what would have been the game-winning drive, eventually losing 19-14.

I don't know how much the Cougars have left in the tank, and they won't have any time to refuel before heading to play a pissed off Louisville team on the road.

The Cardinals, still peeved about losing to those very same UCF Knights, will want to make a statement by blowing out Houston—a team Blake Bortles & Co. had to struggle with.

The Cardinals still rank 10th in Football Outsiders' F/+ rankings and are one of just six teams—along with Alabama, Florida State, Arizona State, Wisconsin and South Carolina—to rank top-16 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Teddy Bridgewater is going to explode.

4. Michigan (+2.5) at Northwestern

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The Pick: Northwestern

Northwestern has seen a lot of early action on this game, swinging the line all the way from Michigan minus-1 to Northwestern minus-2.5, according to VegasInsider.

There's a reason for that. Both teams are in a tailspin right now, but the Wildcats are at least playing well and losing close while the Wolverines are an abject mess.

Both teams have played Nebraska in the past two weeks, and while the Huskers needed a last-second Hail Mary to beat Northwestern in Lincoln, they handled Michigan 17-13 in Ann Arbor.

The Wildcats need this win to retain their faint hope of becoming bowl eligible. Coming off of a bye, I trust coach Pat Fitzgerald to wake them up.

3. Ball State (+7) at Northern Illinois

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The Pick: Ball State

Ball State isn't just the best team that Northern Illinois has played this season—it's the best team in the MAC overall, including the Huskies themselves.

That theory is aided by the Football Outsiders F/+ rankings, which have the Cardinals at No. 51 in the country and NIU all the way down at No. 65.

These numbers cannot be taken at gospel, but they do allude to a troubling pattern from Jordan Lynch and the Huskies. Despite the 9-0 record, this team is not as good as it was last year, having beating FCS Eastern Illinois by just four points and Akron by just seven points at home.

Ball State, meanwhile, is comfortable playing on the road, where its beaten an ACC team (Virginia) by 21 points and blown out a couple of MAC opponents, including that very same Akron team by a score of 42-24.

Keith Wenning. Horactio Banks. Willie Snead. Ball State wins straight up, I think, but definitely stays within one score.

2. San Diego State at Hawaii (+4.5)

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Pick: Hawaii

San Diego State is 5-4, fighting to become bowl eligible from the Mountain West with wins over San Jose State and Nevada and close losses to Fresno State (in overtime) and Oregon State.

Hawaii, meanwhile, is 0-9 and fighting to avoid the public shame of a winless season.

I like the Rainbow Warriors to win outright.

Independent of the records, everything I have seen this year suggests that Hawaii is a better team than San Diego State, including the first-half scare it gave to USC all the way back in Week 1. The advanced numbers agree, too, as Football Outsiders' F/+ ranks the Warriors two spots higher than the Aztecs.

Vegas knows that the value here is on Hawaii, which is why the line looks so out of sync. The books are hoping to entice the public into betting San Diego State, confusing them by posting such a short line between a team with a winning record and a team with zero wins.

That, my friends, is what we call a "sucker bet." Take the other side.

1. Maryland (+14) at Virginia Tech

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The Pick: Virginia Tech

I'm unfazed by losses to Duke and Boston College—both of which are at least halfway decent teams—and continue to be a strong backer of Virginia Tech, which I believe to be far-and-away the biggest threat to Florida State's undefeated season, assuming it wins the ACC Coastal.

The advanced numbers agree with me, too. Virginia Tech checks in at No. 11 in the Football Outsiders F/+ rankings, bolstered by what those stats determine to be the best defense in college football.

Think about that. You can get the best defense in college football, at home, against a depleted Maryland team that scored three points against Syracuse at home last week, and only give 14 points.

It matters not what you think of Logan Thomas. The Hokies will need just 17 points—20, maximum—to cover this line. Maryland has lost its two ACC road games by a combined score of 97-10, including a 24-point loss at Wake Forest.

Lay the 14 with confidence.