Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The winless Jacksonville Jaguars are just 1-20 SU in their last 21 games lined as dogs on the road, but they're also 4-1 ATS in their last five games against division-rival Tennessee.

The Jags are double-digit dogs against a mediocre Titans team in Nashville on Sunday, shedding yet more light on just how bad the Jags are playing.

Point spread: Titans opened as 12-point favorites; the total was 41. (Line updates and Matchup report)

OddsShark.com computer says: 20.6-3.0 Titans

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

By the numbers, Jacksonville is a mess. And now, the Jags are without WR Justin Blackmon, who's been suspended for the rest of the season. But the Jags have managed to split the season series with Tennessee each of the last four seasons, and the only spread they covered this season also came on the road, when they gave a good effort at Denver.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

Tennessee just halted a three-game losing streak with a victory in St. Louis, and at 4-4, the Titans are within a half-game of the second AFC Wild Card spot. They also just got QB Jake Locker back. With just enough winnable games remaining on the schedule, Tennessee has a chance to stay in the playoff hunt.

The Titans are very seldom a double-digit home favorite, but they are 7-2 ATS the past nine times it has happened, according to the OddsShark.com NFL database.

Smart Pick

OddsShark's computer is predicting a Tennessee victory and cover in a low-scoring game that plays UNDER its total. Getting Locker back helps, but the Titans are still not a team that blows other teams out. So, 13 points just looks like a bit much in this spot.

Plus, Jacksonville had last week off. It's not easy going with a team that's 0-8, but take the Jags, plus the points.

Trends:

Jaguars are 1-20 SU past 21 games as road dogs

Titans have been double-digit home faves nine times since 1993 (7-2 ATS)

Tennessee is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark — follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.