Washington Redskins vs. Minnesota Vikings: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Washington Redskins beat San Diego in overtime Sunday and are now 6-1 against the spread in their last six November games.

This week, Washington, 3-5 but just a game-and-a-half behind first-place Dallas in the NFC East, heads to Minneapolis to take on the 1-7 Vikings Thursday night.

Point spread: Redskins opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 48.5 (line updates and matchup report).

OddsShark.com computer says: 20.1-18.2 Redskins

Why the Redskins can cover the spread

After an 0-3 start, Washington has won three of its last five games. The Redskins rank fifth in total offense and sixth in rushing and are holding the ball for an average of over 31 minutes per game. In the NFL, teams that win the time-of-possession battle cover the spread nearly 70 percent of the time.

Finally, Washington just beat Minnesota one year ago 38-26, piling up 183 yards on the ground. Washington is 5-1 against the Vikings since 1980, according to the OddsShark.com NFL database.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikes have only won one game this season, but they've had chances, including last week, when they led the Cowboys in Arlington late before allowing a touchdown with 30 seconds to go in a 27-23 defeat. Minnesota outrushed Dallas 169-36 and got a decent outing from Christian Ponder, who's back in as the starter at quarterback.

Smart Pick

The OddsShark NFL predictor computer is calling for Washington to win this game but for the cover to be close and for the UNDER to come in. These two defenses rank right near the bottom in several categories, but the Redskins, with RG III, have the edge on offense. And Minnesota ranks 31st in time of possession.

Washington has a little life after last week's victory, while the Vikes are dead in the water. Take the 'Skins.

Trends

- Redskins are 5-1 straight up at Minnesota since 1980.

- Redskins are 5-1 ATS past six November games.

- Vikings have lost eight of past 10 November games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.