NFL Week 6 Picks: Best Bets on the Board

Week 6 of the 2013 NFL season is shaping up to be a great one for gamblers. There’s a ton of games on tap and plenty of good teams getting points that you should definitely considering backing.

Let’s check out the updated lines for each contest on the slate, see my predictions for the winner of each one and then take a closer look at the best bets of the week.

St. Louis Rams (+7.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS

The Rams earned a much-needed victory in Week 5, ousting the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars to move to 2-3. The team has a golden opportunity to move to .500 and remain very much alive in the NFC West hunt—and Wild Card race—with another win over the Texans.

It’s almost guaranteed that the Rams are going to get spotted six points by Texans starting quarterback Matt Schaub, who has thrown a pick-six in each of his last four games—a new lowlight in the annals of NFL history.

Houston head coach Gary Kubiak gave a vote of confidence to his signal-caller on Wednesday, installing him as the starter for this Week 6 matchup.

That will likely be a fatal mistake, as the Rams defense has been feasting on poor decisions by rattled quarterbacks. The unit picked off Blaine Gabbert twice, with one of those for an 82-yard score in the first quarter of a 34-20 victory.

The Rams are now standing at plus-two in turnover ratio, a stark contrast to the Texans’ negative-eight differential.

As long as St. Louis can make a few stops and intercept Schaub at a key moment, it will be in position to outright win this one on the road. Getting over seven points makes the play even smarter, so make sure hammer this one now before it moves the other way.

 

BUFFALO BILLS (+7.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Despite the fact that rookie sensation EJ Manuel is out of the picture for a few weeks, it’s still not time to fade the Bills in 2013.

This team has been a model of consistency at home, and that is not just at the quarterback position, but also all over the field. It has covered the spread in each of their three games at Ralph Wilson Stadium, including outright winning against the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens.

While things certainly change with Thad Lewis under center, he’s a decent backup that actually performed well in his one start of 2012—when the former Cleveland Brown completing 22-of-32 passes for 204 yards and a score, with just one interception against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Head coach Doug Marrone is going to task Lewis with managing the game and will utilize Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller to pound the rock against the Bengals front line.

Cincy is giving up just 95.6 yards per game on the ground, but that stat has been boosted immensely by facing a handful of teams—New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns—that simply can’t move the football by running it.

Johnathan Franklin of the Green Bay Packers lit the Bengals up for 103 yards and a score on 13 carries and you should expect similar results from the Bills backfield.

Don’t be surprised to see Buffalo keep this one closer than expected and handily cover the large spread.