Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

There are seemingly plenty of reasons to bet on the Buffalo Bills as they host the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 6 action. History is on Buffalo’s side and an emotional letdown looms for the Bengals, who have only been in this situation as a big road favorite eight times since 1980.

Point spread: Bengals opened as three-point favorites but were bet all the way to nine points at one book monitored by OddsShark.com; the total was 45. Line updates and matchup report.

Computer Prediction: 20.9-16.2 Bengals

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Cincy's defense just shut down the previously unbeaten New England Patriots, putting a halt to Tom Brady's touchdown streak. The Bengals' stop unit ranks eighth overall and has allowed just 17 points per game. And now they'll go up against a Buffalo quarterback making his second career NFL start.

Also, Cincy is 3-1 ATS the last four times it has been favored on the road. But can they avoid a letdown spot after a big win? In those eight games since 1980 where they were road chalk of seven points or more, they are just 1-5-2 ATS, according to the OddsShark.com NFL odds database.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

With the injury to EJ Manuel, Buffalo has promoted former Duke Blue Devil Thaddeus Lewis to start this game. But while he lacks experience, with just one career NFL start, he does bring a couple of things to the table, including mobility (unlike the pocket-passing Brady) and a good arm.

Of course, Lewis' best friend would be a potent running game, and the Bills rank third in rushing at 153 YPG. Buffalo has also dominated the Bengals over the years, beating them 10 of 11 times and covering the spread nine times.

Smart Pick

Going with Lewis in place of Manuel probably doesn't change the game plan too much for the Bills; they'll still try to run the ball against the Bengals. Also, Cincy has done the roller-coaster thing the last three weeks, and after upsetting New England might be due for a drop.

The Bills are 6-2 ATS in eight recent games as a home dog, take them and the points.

Trends

Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six games when playing on the road against Buffalo (0-6 SU).

Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Cincinnati (10-1 SU).

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.