Week 4 NFL Picks: Home Teams That Will Struggle

While home teams usually have an advantage, there are a number of home teams that will struggle in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Whether it's a bad matchup, a first real test for an upstart team, or a team that's struggling to find its identity, there are three home teams in particular that will struggle.

Read on to find out who those teams are.  

Houston Texans

The Baltimore Ravens obliterated Houston last week, as the Texans lost by a score of 30-9. Matt Schaub had a particularly rough day, throwing for just 194 yards, as well as throwing an inexplicable pick-six.

It's been a rough season for Schaub in general, and his coach Gary Kubiak is concerned, telling SI.com:

"

Well, I’m concerned about a lot of things. We turned the ball over, obviously, and that’s something that we’re not doing very well right now, or we’re doing a poor job of protecting the ball, and we’re not getting turnovers either. Those two go hand-in-hand. As a football team, we’re losing that battle, which we were very good at last year, and we’re off to a very slow start this year. That has to change. But it’s not just the quarterback. Everybody’s involved in what we’re doing, and we can do a better job up front, a better job running routes. [Schaub's] got to make good reads, all of those things. Those things go together.

"

It's not going to get much easier against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks defense is ferocious. It is the top-ranked pass defense, giving up just 146.7 yards per game. It has given up a paltry nine points per game and is tied for second in most turnovers forced.

Quite simply, it's been tough for opposing quarterbacks. The Seahawks held Cam Newton to just 125 yards passing and 38 yards running, and forced Colin Kaepernick into three interceptions.

Matt Schaub isn't as good as Newton and Kaepernick. It's going to be a long day for Schaub, and the team as a whole is going to struggle to score.

The Seahawks are going to win this one handily, by a score of 21-3, and the Texans will have to think long and hard about Schaub's future in Houston. 

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons host the undefeated Patriots on Sunday night, and it's probably the last team Atlanta wanted to face.

The Falcons are struggling this year, beating only the 1-3 St. Louis Rams. To be sure, injuries have hit them hard. Steven Jackson is out, so the running game has not gotten going. Roddy White is banged up, as is Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez has been a non-factor.

Even worse, the secondary, which the Falcons spent two high-round draft picks hoping to fix, is still pitiful. It allows 296 passing yards per game, which is 25th in the league.

That's good news for Tom Brady. While the Patriots pass offense has struggled, it did look like it was turning a corner last week.

Brady threw for 225 yards, including two touchdowns to Kenbrell Thompkins. He spread the ball efficiently, hitting guys like Aaron Dobson, Brandon Bolden and Julian Edelman multiple times each. 

Brady is starting to create chemistry with his receivers, especially Dobson, whom Brady targeted 10 times last week for seven catches. 

Plus, the Patriots secondary has been really good this year, giving up only 188.3 yards per game, which is sixth-best in the league. Jones and White should play, but they won't be able to penetrate the secondary, especially when they are banged up. 

It's been a fall from grace for the Falcons, who were a game away from reaching the Super Bowl. Now, they're in real danger of going 1-3.

The Patriots are going to win this one 28-13, and the Falcons are going to have to do a lot of soul-searching for answers.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints are off to a great start this season. At 3-0, the Saints are showing their trademark offensive flair, but the most surprising, and important, part of their season so far is their defense. Long a dreadful unit, the hiring of Rob Ryan as defensive coordinator has done wonders. They give up just under 13 points per game, and they only allow 184.3 yards in the air per game, which is fourth-best in the league. 

Of course, that makes predicting them to lose a little tricky. But they are facing a really good Miami Dolphins team. The Dolphins are also 3-0 and have signature victories over the Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts. Ryan Tannehill is quickly blossoming into a franchise quarterback. He's thrown for 827 yards and four touchdowns, and has an impressive 66.4 completion percentage.

He's found chemistry with Brian Hartline and Charles Clay, and Mike Wallace is always a threat to have a big game. The tandem running game of Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas has been efficient, and it seems like they are on the verge of a breakout.

Their defense is just average, to be sure, so it's probable that this game will go into a shootout. Even though the Saints defense has been great, it has only faced one quality team in the Atlanta Falcons, and the Falcons are 1-2.

This is a terrific Monday night matchup, and it's going to be a close game. I think that the Saints defense is a bit of a mirage. It hasn't yet faced a great team, and the Dolphins are for real. Look for the Fins to win this one 28-24.