Can Masahiro Tanaka Command a Yu Darvish-Type Contract in MLB?

Don't look now, but there may be another Yu Darvish on the way to MLB.

Masahiro Tanaka is a 24-year old right-handed pitcher who plays for the Rakuten Golden Eagles in the Japan Pacific League.

He's gone 20-0 this year with a 1.24 ERA and 155 strikeouts. While his strikeouts don't compare to Darvish's, his wins and ERA certainly do.

That poses the question, can Tanaka command a Yu Darvish-type contract in MLB? Keep in mind, the Rangers posted $51.7 million just for the right to negotiate a contract with Darvish, and then signed him to a six-year, $56 million deal.

So, is Tanaka worth more than $107 million in combined salary and posting fee?

The Scout Reporting

According to Baseball America's Ben Badler, Tanaka has cemented himself as the best pitcher in Japan.

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At 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, Tanaka throws a low-90s fastball that can touch 96 mph. Even though Tanaka can reach the mid-90s, his fastball is the pitch that gives some scouts pause because it comes in on a flat plane, making it more hittable than the velocity might suggest. Tanaka has two secondary pitches that have earned grades of 60 or better on the 20-80 scouting scale, including a 70 splitter with late downward action to keep hitters off his fastball. His low- to mid-80s slider is another plus weapon, while he’ll mix in a curveball as well.

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The biggest key there is that his fastball is on a flat plane. He may be able to get away with it in Japan, but MLB hitters will blast it all over the place.

His secondary pitches seem to be good, but the fastball could be the pitch that holds teams back from offering him Darvish-like money.

The Stats

The easiest way to compare two players is to put their stats up next to each other. Darvish played in Japan for seven years, while Tanaka is currently in his seventh year, so the timeframe fits perfectly.

* Note: Both players started at the age of 18.

Besides the fact that Tanaka had more wins twice than Darvish did in any one season, Darvish has the slight edge. His WHIP was above 1.000 once after turning 20, while Tanaka has only had two seasons below 1.000.

Strikeouts are another big factor as you see no consistency for Tanaka's numbers. He's reached as high as 241 strikeouts, but also has been as low as 119 (although he only had 20 starts that year).

In the end, the WHIP is the biggest difference for me. Every pitcher goes through stretches where they struggle to strike hitters out. What I want to see is if they're able to get outs without the help of the strikeout.

Pitchers who aren't able to do this generally have more walks and hits allowed. Some people toss that stat aside, but it is a telling stat on a pitcher's control.

Verdict

I don't see Tanaka commanding the same type of money that Darvish did. Of course, he could hire Scott Boras as his agent, which would likely change things.

But the numbers show that Darvish was better in Japan. And if his contract is the standard, then Tanaka could receive a little below that.

I could see him getting a four-year, $36 million deal like Yoenis Cespedes received from the Athletics. With teams also having to pay a posting fee, that deal would be more than fair for a player who still has things to work on.

Of course, all of that could change depending on what teams get in on the bidding. A team could be so desperate for pitching that it'll open up the checkbook as wide as possible to ensure it gets him.

Now, we just wait and see.

Like what I have to say or think I'm full of it? Respond in the comments or hit me up on Twitter @chris_stephens6.