Predicting Which NHL Stars Will Be Letdowns in the 2013-14 Season

Two major developments, one being realignment and the other a restoration of normalcy after the lockout-shortened, later-ending campaign, will create a league-wide contrast between the 2012-13 and 2013-14 NHL seasons.

Some of the most visible faces of that contrast will be the players exhibiting adverse effects from one or both of those elements. Those most prone to a letdown of that nature are longtime stars in their late 30s who are coming off of a 48-game sprint, and possibly playoff action, followed by an unusually short summer and now have a regular 82-game schedule ahead.

Elsewhere, there is the usual assortment of transactions that bring a player into a more challenging environment than the one he thrived in last year. Then there are the venues subject to glum forecasts that could hinder the performance of a player who is ordinarily solid.

Among the top-class NHL players who were particularly effective in their positions in 2012-13, there are four who stand out as those whose fans need not get their hopes up for an identical follow-up in 2013-14.

Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics for this slideshow were found via NHL.com

Zdeno Chara

With 649 minutes and 38 seconds (a nightly average of 29:31), the 36-year-old Zdeno Chara saw more action in the 2013 playoffs than any other NHL skater.

That tournament ended on June 24, tied for the latest end date of any NHL season. Training camp for 2013-14 commences on Sept. 11, and Chara’s Boston Bruins begin their regular season on Oct. 3.

This means that one of the league’s older and more shagged out players will have had no more than 79 days between formal team activity and 101 days to recover and recharge.

Yes, the same applies to the rest of the reigning finalist Bruins and the reigning champion Chicago Blackhawks. But they all have a comparative advantage of either being younger or playing a less taxing role on their team.

In turn, those disadvantages will work against Chara as he attempts to reignite his exemplary leadership on the Boston blue line. Opposing forecheckers can exploit that the same way the Blackhawks and other adversaries did at key points late last season.

The result will not exactly be a throwback to his forgettable 2006-07 introduction to Boston (minus-21), but Chara will not be as effective as he has been during the Bruins' most prosperous recent years.

Sergei Gonchar

Granted, the Dallas Stars’ acquisition of Sergei Gonchar makes a certain degree of sense, and it is easy to understand the rationale behind management’s plans for him.

In an offseason player report for the Dallas Morning News, Mike Heika stressed the intangible qualities the 39-year-old can bring, which will be helpful for a still burgeoning group of defensemen. Heika also implied that general manager Jim Nill, ex of the Detroit Red Wings, is banking on Gonchar being another Nicklas Lidstrom in terms of staying power.

One caveat for that, though, is the fact that Lidstrom spent his entire career with Detroit when that franchise went through a rigorous annual regimen in the Western Conference. Conversely, Gonchar is going to be taking on a Western-heavy itinerary for the first time in his career, having previously played for Washington, Boston, Pittsburgh and Ottawa.

The added mileage will make it harder for the aging Gonchar to remain an effective top-tier blueliner. He will not be utterly useless at either end, particularly on the power play, but he will not be as remarkably stingy as he was before.

Fortunately for all parties concerned, Heika concludes his evaluation by writing, “Right now, Gonchar is the Stars’ No. 1 defenseman, but the organization hopes that will change in the next two seasons.”

In other words, expect his best influences on Dallas to be mostly secondhand and long term.

Martin St. Louis

Unlike the Tampa Bay Lightning, Martin St. Louis is not getting younger.

He turned 38 within six weeks of finishing a shorter-than-usual season at the top of the league’s scoring chart with 60 points. Less than two weeks later, the Bolts drafted Jonathan Drouin third overall.

With the additions of Drouin and Valtteri Filppula to an explosive strike force already spearheaded by Steven Stamkos, the output figures to spread in somewhat greater quantities. That will hold especially true on the power play.

By no means will St. Louis fade into oblivion within a single season, but he simply will not repeat as Tampa’s top producer, let alone the league’s. His 2013 Art Ross campaign is very likely the last time he retains a season-long average of a point per night or higher.

Thomas Vanek

Earlier this week, in an interview with Paul Hamilton of WGR 550 SportsRadio, Thomas Vanek stated that he never requested a trade out of Buffalo. At the same time, he indicated that he is open to going elsewhere at some point.

With one season left before he hits unrestricted free agency, the 29-year-old, eight-season veteran is returning to a Buffalo Sabres squad that is not giving its fanbase much cause for immediate excitement.

As Vanek himself told Hamilton in his interview, regarding an implicit youth movement in the organization, “Obviously you need your older guys there too and we only have a few of us so the few of us need to be good and good leaders…We’re a young team, we’re rebuilding and those are my words, so I’m keeping my options open.”

Regarding the leadership aspect, there is hardly any reason to call Vanek’s heart into question. However, his online scouting report from The Hockey News raises a red flag when it states that he “Takes a lot of abuse in front of the net, so he can wear down.”

If he is assuming the task of helping a raw group get through the dog days of winter, which looks all the more probable now that Jason Pominville is not around to help shoulder the load, that drawback is likely to come up.

In turn, the safest wager for Vanek’s 2013-14 season is expecting him to noticeably suffer, performance-wise, between the halfway mark and the trade deadline.