Updated World Series 'Contender or Pretender' Entering 2013's Final Quarter

If we've learned anything from recent baseball history, it's that counting teams out of the playoff race too early can come back to haunt you.

Just ask those who counted out the St. Louis Cardinals back in 2011, when the team found itself 10 games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central and 10.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL wild-card race entering play on August 25.

The Cardinals went 23-9 over their last 32 games, clinching the wild-card berth and going on to win the World Series.

That comebacks like that are possible is one of the many reasons why baseball is such a fantastic game to follow, but they are few and far between.

With more than half of the 30 MLB teams still considering themselves contenders at this point in the season, we'll use that 10.5 game deficit as the cutoff point for inclusion on this list. Teams facing a bigger deficit, either in the divisional race or wild-card race, have been excluded from the discussion.

Don't worry. That still leaves plenty of teams in the hunt for one of the 10 available postseason spots.

Which teams have the best chances of remaining in the conversation as we head into the season's final quarter?

Let's take a look.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Pretenders

2013 Record: 62-57

Standing in Division: Second place, 7.5 games behind Los Angeles

Standing in NL Wild Card: Third place, 5.5 games out

While Arizona has gotten hot of late—winning six of its last eight games, including a three-game sweep of Baltimore—I'm just not buying the D-Backs as contenders this year.

Since the beginning of June, Arizona has played .500 baseball, going 33-33. That's not good, especially when you consider the production the team has gotten from Aaron Hill, Paul Goldschmidt and Martin Prado since the beginning of July.

	BA	OPS	XBH (HR)	RBI	R
Hill	.311	.873	18 (5)	23	20
Goldschmidt	.271	.937	17 (10)	26	24
Prado	.331	.909	18 (4)	26	17

Playing .500 ball just isn't going to get it done this year, not with the Dodgers on a historic run and the teams ahead of them in the wild-card race—Cincinnati and St. Louis—not showing any signs of slowing down.

Arizona kicks off a crucial 10-game road trip on Friday night that takes the team to Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Philadelphia.

The Diamondbacks need to win at least six of those games—especially during their four-game stay at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati—to have a real shot at making the postseason.

Atlanta Braves: Contenders

2013 Record: 74-47

Standing in Division: First place, 14.5 game lead over Washington

Standing in NL Wild Card: N/A

The best team in the National League, Atlanta continues to roll along despite having to re-tool its rotation after losing Tim Hudson for the season and being without Paul Maholm since mid-July.

Brandon Beachy has pitched to a 2.21 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over his last three outings, effectively replacing Hudson and solidifying the team's rotation, which was already one of the best in baseball.

Something finally clicked for two-thirds of the team's superstar outfield when July hit, as Jason Heyward and Justin Upton have been on fire for more than a month.

Since July 1	BA	OPS	XBH (HR)	RBI	R
Heyward	.298	.884	13 (5)	17	27
Upton	.322	.941	20 (7)	24	28

Freddie Freeman and Chris Johnson continue to put up excellent numbers from the corners of the infield, with Freeman's 80 RBI leading the team (fourth-most in the NL) and Johnson leading the NL in batting with a .337 average.

Baltimore Orioles: Contenders

2013 Record: 65-55

Standing in Division: Third place, 5.5 games behind Boston

Standing in AL Wild Card: Third place, 3.0 games out

Remember the scene in Ferris Bueller's Day Off when Ed Rooney is explaining to Mrs. Bueller that her son has been absent from school nine times?

They might as well have been talking about Baltimore closer Jim Johnson, who has blown an MLB-worst nine saves this season. With Francisco Rodriguez more than capable of taking over in the ninth inning, manager Buck Showalter may need to make a change sooner rather than later.

Despite Johnson's issues and the team's lack of a bona fide front-of-the-rotation starter, Baltimore remains in contention thanks to a potent offense led by Chris Davis, who leads baseball with 44 home runs and ranks near the top of the leaderboard in multiple offensive categories.

The Orioles start a tough 15-game stretch on Monday when Tampa Bay comes to town that could ultimately dictate whether they make the playoffs. Oakland follows the Rays to Camden Yards before the Orioles hit the road for three-game sets in Boston, New York and Cleveland.

Boston Red Sox: Contenders

2013 Record: 72-51

Standing in Division: First place, two games ahead of Tampa Bay

Standing in AL Wild Card: N/A

A team going from worst to first doesn't happen often, but that's exactly what we're witnessing in Boston this season.

David Ortiz continues to pace the offense, leading the team in nearly every statistical category while continuing to flirt with an OPS above 1.000, and the recently recalled Will Middlebrooks is swinging the bat as well as he ever has, adding another weapon to an already stacked lineup.

While the starting rotation could really use a healthy Clay Buchholz back in the fold, newly acquired Jake Peavy has been solid, and Jon Lester continues to show signs of life, pitching to a 3.65 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over his last nine starts, dating back to July 3. 

Cincinnati Reds: Contenders

2013 Record: 69-52

Standing in Division: Third place, 2.5 games behind Pittsburgh

Standing in NL Wild Card: Second wild-card berth, six games ahead of Arizona

With a 10-3 record over their last 13 games, the Reds are surging despite having only two members of the starting lineup, Devin Mesoraco and Joey Votto, producing at the plate in August.

Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips remain two of the better run-producers in the game, and the return of Ryan Ludwick will only make an already dangerous lineup more potent once the 35-year-old outfielder shakes off the rust that has built up since his shoulder surgery in early April.

Few teams have as solid a rotation as the Reds do, and if Johnny Cueto can ever get healthy and back on the mound, both the rotation and bullpen will grow stronger. Rookie sensation Tony Cingrani would likely head back to a relief role, giving Cincinnati three big-time strikeout artists (Cingrani, Aroldis Chapman and Manny Parra) to call upon late in games.

Cleveland Indians: Contenders

2013 Record: 65-56

Standing in Division: Second place, 6.5 games behind Detroit

Standing in AL Wild Card: Fourth place, 3.5 games out

With only 12 of the team's last 41 games coming against teams with a winning record, Cleveland has a great shot to play itself into the playoffs for the first time since 2007.

While I'm not a believer in Ubaldo Jimenez or Scott Kazmir, the duo has been terrific for Cleveland since the beginning of June, erasing some of the doubts many had about the team's starting rotation.

It's hard to see the Indians catching Detroit in the division, but staking claim to one of the two wild-card spots is entirely possible given the team's relatively easy schedule.

Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes, Ryan Raburn and Michael Bradley continue to produce at the plate, but the rest of the lineup has been stuck in an August funk they desperately need to get out of.

Since August 1	BA	OPS	XBH (HR)	RBI	BB/K
Michael Bourn	.190	.424	1 (0)	4	2/15
Asrubal Cabrera	.130	.446	5 (1)	4	2/11
Lonnie Chisenhall	.100	.256	0 (0)	1	2/10
Carlos Santana	.163	.553	4 (2)	3	2/10
Nick Swisher	.167	.534	4 (1)	4	5/11

Even with a favorable schedule, if that group continues to put up such mediocre numbers for much longer, the Indians will find themselves out of contention before the month comes to an end.

Detroit Tigers: Contenders

2013 Record: 71-49

Standing in Division: First place, 3.5 games ahead of Cleveland

Standing in AL Wild Card: N/A

Do we really need to go in depth about why the Tigers are contenders?

No team in baseball can hang with the Tigers lineup, which is led by Miguel Cabrera, the best hitter on the planet.

The team's rotation is phenomenal, and Justin Verlander, who has struggled for much of the season, seems to finally be turning a corner, pitching to a 2.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts with 22 strikeouts over 21 innings of work.

Not having an "established closer" has worked out just fine for the Tigers, with Joaquin Benoit (16-for-16 in save opportunities) getting the job done and Drew Smyly (1.93 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) and recently acquired Jose Veras (2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) doing a great job in setup roles.

Kansas City Royals: Contenders

2013 Record: 62-57

Standing in Division: Third place, 8.5 games behind Detroit

Standing in AL Wild Card: Third place, 5.5 games out

Kansas City has a much tougher road to travel to reach the playoffs than Cleveland does, with 10 games remaining on the schedule against Detroit, who beat the Royals last night to start a five-game series between the pair of division rivals.

Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas have awoken from their slumbers, joining Eric Hosmer as productive members of the lineup, all hitting above .290 with a combined 28 extra-base hits and 41 RBI over the season's second half.

The team's playoff hopes likely rest on how it fares over a brutal 15-game stretch in early September that sees the Royals take on Detroit and Cleveland 12 times, with a three-game series against Texas thrown in for good measure.

The Royals will need their pitching staff, which has posted a 2.55 ERA and 1.21 WHIP since the All-Star break, to continue that level of performance through mid-September if they are really going to make a serious run at ending their 27-year playoff drought.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Contenders

2013 Record: 70-50

Standing in Division: First place, 7.5 games ahead of Arizona

Standing in NL Wild Card: N/A

No team in baseball has been hotter than the Dodgers, who have gone a ridiculous 32-7 since the beginning of July.

Since the All-Star break, only the Detroit Tigers have put more runs on the board than the Dodgers, who are getting production out of nearly every spot in the lineup, as evidenced by the team's combined .294/.354/.426 slash line over that time.

Did I mention they've done that without their most prolific bat in the lineup? Matt Kemp will be back at some point this season, and when he does finally return, the Dodgers will be that much harder to take down.

Clayton Kershaw remains the best pitcher on the planet, while Kenley Jansen has been nearly untouchable in the ninth inning, allowing only 12 batters to reach base and three earned runs since the beginning of July, striking out 28 over 19.2 innings of work.

New York Yankees: Pretenders

2013 Record: 62-58

Standing in Division: Fourth place, 8.5 games behind Boston

Standing in AL Wild Card: Sixth place, six games out

The Yankees have done a remarkable job of staying within shouting distance of a playoff spot despite missing most of their expected Opening Day lineup for much of the season due to injury—but shouting distance isn't close enough.

While Alfonso Soriano went off against the Angels—going 10-for-17 with a double, four home runs and 14 RBI—he's not going to maintain that torrid pace for the rest of the season. Even with a healthy Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson back in action, the lineup is still mediocre at best.

The same can be said for the starting rotation, which has been a disaster. 

CC Sabathia looks nothing like the perennial Cy Young Award contender he's been for nearly a decade. Andy Pettitte looks every bit like a 40-year-old pitcher, and Phil Hughes just stinks.

The team simply doesn't have the firepower on offense or the horses in the rotation to get past the four teams it trails in the division or the five teams it needs to climb over in the wild-card race.

For only the second time since 1995, the Yankees are not going to be playing meaningful baseball in October.

Oakland Athletics: Contenders

2013 Record: 68-52

Standing in Division: Second place, 1.5 games behind Texas

Standing in AL Wild Card: Second wild-card berth, three-game lead over Baltimore

Oakland continues to mix and match pieces in the lineup and rotation, and the results remain the same—victory for the A's.

Since replacing Tommy Milone in the starting rotation on August 10, Sonny Gray has pitched to a 1.29 ERA, averaging a strikeout per inning while holding the opposition to a .157/.218/.235 slash line. 

A 12-game stretch that begins Aug. 23 on the road in Baltimore will ultimately decide Oakland's fate in the race for the AL West. After a three-game series against the Orioles, the A's travel to Detroit for four games before returning home for three games each against Tampa Bay and Texas.

Oakland owns a combined 7-16 record against those four teams and has been outscored 120-76 in those 23 games. Even if the team should falter during that stretch, Oakland will remain in terrific shape to head back to the playoffs for the second consecutive season.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Contenders

2013 Record: 71-49

Standing in Division: First place, two games ahead of St. Louis

Standing in NL Wild Card: N/A

Despite just dropping two of three to the Cardinals, the Pirates control their playoff destiny—with six games left against both Cincinnati and the Cardinals, the two teams that just won't go away in the race for the NL Central. 

The team's real strength lies in its pitching staff. Mark Melancon has done a solid job of replacing the injured Jason Grilli in the ninth inning, and Gerrit Cole has effectively replaced Wandy Rodriguez in the rotation, with the veteran sidelined since the beginning of June with tightness in his left forearm.

With only 18 of its remaining 42 games coming against teams with a winning record and both Grilli and Rodriguez expected back in action in September, the Pirates are in fantastic shape to end the team's 20-year streak of sub-.500 baseball and return to the postseason for the first time since 1992.

St. Louis Cardinals: Contenders

2013 Record: 69-51

Standing in Division: Second place, two games behind Pittsburgh

Standing in NL Wild Card: First wild card berth, six games ahead of Arizona

St. Louis just knows how to win.

The Cardinals have only one glaring weakness in their lineup—shortstop Pete Kozma. The rest of the team's position players all swing a solid bat, with Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter, Allen Craig, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday all hitting .290 or better with an OPS above .800.

In the rotation, only Jake Westbrook has struggled since the All-Star break, pitching to a 7.09 ERA and allowing four or more runs in three of his last five starts. Closer Edward Mujica has yet to allow an earned run in the second half of the season.

Tampa Bay Rays: Contenders

2013 Record: 68-51

Standing in Division: Second place, two games behind Boston

Standing in AL Wild Card: First wild-card berth, three games ahead of Cleveland

After losing six of its first eight games in August, Tampa Bay has rattled off two wins in a row and looks to be turning a corner.

Evan Longoria, who had an absolutely horrific July—hitting .194 with a .635 OPS and 37 strikeouts in only 25 games—has finally awoken from his slumber, hitting .270 with a .909 OPS over his last nine games.

Rookie sensation Wil Myers continues to pace the offense, with a .377 batting average, 1.126 OPS, 11 extra-base hits and 22 RBI over his last 21 games.

On the mound, David Price (1.96 ERA) hasn't slowed down since his historic performance in July. Alex Cobb, who was knocked out of action by a line drive that struck him in the head back in June, looked none the worse for wear in his first start back, tossing five innings of three-hit, one-run ball against Seattle, walking two and fanning six.

Tampa Bay's pitching depth—coupled with Myers taking some of the pressure to carry the offense off of Longoria's shoulders and Joe Maddon's ability to get more out of his players than most other managers—will result in the Rays getting back to the playoffs after a one-year absence.

Texas Rangers: Contenders

2013 Record: 70-51

Standing in Division: First place, 1.5 games ahead of Oakland

Standing in NL Wild Card: N/A

Losing an All-Star-caliber bat like Nelson Cruz's would be enough to derail the playoff aspirations of any team—except the Rangers, who promptly replaced their suspended slugger with another All-Star-caliber bat in Alex Rios.

Rios solidifies an already potent lineup, one that has seen Mitch Moreland (.300 BA, .989 OPS) and Elvis Andrus (.273 BA, .722 OPS) begin to round back into form after extended stretches of futility in the middle of the summer.

Matt Garza gives the Rangers three formidable starters atop the rotation with Yu Darvish and Derek Holland, while the bullpen has been phenomenal with three relievers—Neal Cotts (0.93), Joe Nathan (1.48) and Tanner Scheppers (1.67) all pitching to sub-2.00 ERAs.