Rogers Cup 2013: Previewing Rafael Nadal vs. Milos Raonic Men's Final

Nobody in the world is playing better tennis than Rafael Nadal as he heads into the 2013 Rogers Cup final against Milos Raonic.

Raonic, a Canadian, enters the contest as the first of his countrymen to reach the final of the nation’s biggest tournament since Robert Bedard won the title in 1958. While it’s already been a monumental drought for the country’s competitors on their own soil, it doesn’t look like their fortunes will change on Sunday.

Raonic is a fierce competitor and he'll have the crowd on his side, but will it be enough to overcome one of the best to ever play the game when he's competing at his best?

Let’s take a look at what to expect and predict the eventual winner of Sunday’s finale.

Match Info

When: Sunday, Aug. 11, at 3 p.m. ET (8 p.m. GMT)

Where: Uniprix Stadium, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Watch: ESPN 2

How They Got There

Nadal bested tournament favorite and defending champion Novak Djokovic 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (2) on Saturday. He scored the win, his second recent victory over Djokovic, in a thrilling third-set tiebreaker to reach the final round. Prior to another epic finish against Djoker, Rafa didn't drop a set in his previous three tournament wins.

Raonic hasn’t had such an easy route to the final round. He narrowly slipped past Frenchman Jeremy Chardy in the opening round and fought off Ernests Gulbis—who shocked Andy Murray—and fellow Canadian Vasek Pospisil in the last two rounds.

Head-to-Head

These two top competitors haven’t had much experience against one another in ATP competition. In just three previous meetings between them dating back to 2010, Nadal hasn’t lost a set.

Most recently, Rafa easily dispatched his foe 6-4, 6-0, in the semifinals at Barcelona this year. That was on clay. Their two previous contests on hard surfaces were much closer, although the result was the same: straight-set wins for the world’s No. 4 player.

Prediction

There’s no denying it: Nadal is back in top form, carrying an ATP World Tour-best 47-3 season record into this match. Not only that, he is also 23-4 all time against players ranked outside of the top 10 when meeting them in a final, according to Greg Sharko of ATPWorldTour.com.

Although he does have a commanding record of 24 ATP titles, Nadal has won just six of his 12 finals matches on hard courts. On the other hand, his 22-year-old opponent is appearing in just his first Masters 1000 final.

Raonic is a heavy serve specialist who will command respect in that regard. Rafa’s ability to return that serve and Raonic’s ability to handle the pressure of facing one of the world’s best in front of his national audience will be the keys to the match. If he can minimize unforced errors, the Canadian could make things closer than many might expect.

But while Raonic is certainly a rising player to watch on the world stage and Rafa has struggled on hard courts at times, Sunday’s result should pan out as expected: Another title will be added to the Spaniard’s ever-growing collection.

He’s just too efficient, skilled and determined right now to think that an upset could be brewing.

Nadal in Two Sets