Handicapping Every Major MLB Award Race with 50 Games to Go

With roughly 50 games to go across Major League Baseball before the regular season wraps up, there is still a lot of baseball to be played. But the races for MLB awards have already begun to take shape.

What follows are my rankings of the top 10 candidates for each major award as things stand right now. I've also included what I feel are the odds of each candidate winning the award when all is said and done.

As a result, the candidates are not ranked by who has the best odds, but instead by where their stock stands as of today. I've taken a look at the Comeback Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues.

NL Comeback Player of the Year

Rank	Name	Stats	Odds
1	SS Troy Tulowitzki	.312/.380/.574, 20 HR, 62 RBI, 51 R	3:1
2	SP Francisco Liriano	16 GS, 12-4, 2.02 ERA, 106 K. 102.2 IP	3:1
3	RP Mark Melancon	55 G, 2-1, 7-of-8 SV, 0.83 ERA, 8.6 K/9	6:1
4	RF Marlon Byrd	.276/.325/.496, 17 HR, 60 RBI, 53 R	5:1
5	SP Jorge De La Rosa	23 GS, 10-6, 3.31 ERA, 89 K, 130.1 IP	10:1
6	LF Carl Crawford	.295/.344/.425, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 11 SB	8:1
7	RP Kevin Gregg	43 G, 2-3, 23-of-27 SV, 2.91 ERA, 7.9 K/9	12:1
8	C Wilson Ramos	.275/.312/.481, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 13 R	20:1
9	SP Kevin Slowey	20 G, 14 GS, 3-6, 4.11 ERA, 76 K, 92 IP	30:1
10	OF Kyle Blanks	.256/.318/.425, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 26 R	25:1

After playing just 47 games last season while battling a nagging groin injury, Troy Tulowitzki has again returned to the top of the pack at the shortstop position. He's missed some time this year as well, but he once again earns the title of top all-around shortstop in the game.

Francisco Liriano signed a one-year, $1 million deal after going 6-12 with a 5.34 ERA last season, and he's pitched like an ace for the Pirates so far this season. The same goes for Mark Melancon in the Pirates bullpen, where he has bounced back from posting a 6.20 ERA in 41 games for the Red Sox last season.

Marlon Byrd, Kevin Gregg and Kevin Slowey all signed minor league deals in the offseason and have bounced back strong, while Kyle Blanks played just four big league games last season and is finally starting to live up to his potential.

Carl Crawford (elbow) and Wilson Ramos (knee) both played in fewer than 40 games last season before suffering season-ending injuries, while Jorge De La Rosa (Tommy John surgery) returned at the end of the season to make just three September starts.

AL Comeback Player of the Year

Rank	Name	Stats	Odds
1	RP Mariano Rivera	45 G, 2-2, 35-of-38 SV, 1.70 ERA, 8.7 K/9	5:2
2	CF Jacoby Ellsbury	.300/.361/.433, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 40 SB	4:1
3	SP John Lackey	20 GS, 7-9, 3.21 ERA, 118 K, 126 IP	8:1
4	1B James Loney	.307/.355/.449, 10 HR, 51 RBI, 42 R	8:1
5	DH Victor Martinez	.277/.333/.399, 9 HR, 64 RBI, 50 R	7:1
6	SP Ervin Santana	22 GS, 8-6, 2.97 ERA, 120 K, 151.1 IP	10:1
7	1B Adam Lind	.281/.349/.479, 14 HR, 41 RBI, 48 R	15:1
8	RP Neal Cotts	34 G, 4-1, 0.75 ERA, 40 K, 36 IP	25:1
9	CF Brett Gardner	.270/.338/.404, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 19 SB	18:1
10	SP Scott Kazmir	20 GS, 7-4, 3.89 ERA, 100 K, 111 IP	20:1

You can make a case for a handful of other guys deserving the award, but there is little doubt that Mariano Rivera will walk away with AL Comeback Player of the Year honors this season. He tore his ACL early last season, and after announcing he'd retire at the end of the year, he's returned to elite form for one last hurrah this year.

Jacoby Ellsbury has not quite returned to his MVP-caliber form of 2011, but he's set himself up for a nice payday nonetheless and has been a key member of the Red Sox's resurgence. The same can be said for John Lackey, who has returned from Tommy John surgery to give the Red Sox quality depth in the rotation.

Victor Martinez and Brett Gardner both missed significant time with injuries last season, while James Loney and Ervin Santana have benefited from a change of scenery. Adam Lind has bounced back from a 2012 in which he was demoted to the minors at one point.

The real stories here are Scott Kazmir and Neal Cotts. Kazmir was pitching in the Independent League last season, and Cotts hadn't pitched in the majors since 2009 until this year. Special mention to Jeremy Bonderman and Miguel Tejada as well, who have also made a comeback after sitting out at least a year.

NL Rookie of the Year

Rank	Name	Stats	Odds
1	SP Jose Fernandez	22 GS, 8-5, 2.58 ERA, 143 K, 132.2 IP	5:2
2	RF Yasiel Puig	.377/.437/.600, 11 HR, 25 RBI, 43 R	7:2
3	SP Shelby Miller	22 GS, 11-7, 2.89 ERA, 132 K, 121.1 IP	6:1
4	SP Julio Teheran	22 GS, 9-5, 2.96 ERA, 121 K, 137.0 IP	11:2
5	SP Hyun-Jin Ryu	22 GS, 11-3, 2.99 ERA, 118 K, 141.1 IP	9:1
6	RP Trevor Rosenthal	51 G, 1-2, 2.19 ERA, 76 K, 53.1 IP	12:1
7	C/OF Evan Gattis	.246/.299/.491, 15 HR, 46 RBI, 31 R	12:1
8	SP Tony Cingrani	18 G, 5-1, 3.05 ERA, 97 K, 82.2 IP	15:1
9	SS Didi Gregorius	.264/.332/.383, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 37 R	25:1
10	RP Paco Rodriguez	56 G, 2-2, 2.14 ERA, 45 K, 42.0 IP	25:1

It's been a long season for the Marlins, and they look like a safe bet to finish the season with the worst record in the National League. However, 21-year-old Jose Fernandez has made the team worth watching every five games, and he should receive some Cy Young consideration on top of Rookie of the Year honors.

Yasiel Puig has a real chance at the award as well. The Dodgers have gone 40-18 since he was called up on June 3, and he has been a constant source of excitement and energy while putting up stellar numbers.

Rookie starters Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Tony Cingrani are all playing key roles in the rotation of contenders, while relievers Trevor Rosenthal and Paco Rodriguez are playing key parts in contenders' bullpens as well.

Evan Gattis was an early favorite for the award, and while he should finish with solid numbers, he's slowed considerably since his hot start.

Rounding out the list is Diamondbacks shortstop Didi Gregorius, whose offensive game has exceeded expectations while he has continued to play stellar defense.

AL Rookie of the Year

Rank	Name	Stats	Odds
1	SP Chris Archer	13 GS, 6-4, 2.71 ERA, 52 K, 76.1 IP	5:1
2	RF Wil Myers	.335/.386/.532, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 24 R	3:1
3	SP Daniel Straily	18 GS, 6-6, 4.41 ERA, 80 K, 100.0 IP	10:1
4	RP Alex Torres	22 G, 4-0, 0.98 ERA, 46 K, 36.2 IP	12:1
5	SS Jose Iglesias	.318/.361/.403, 2 HR, 22 RBI, 28 R	20:1
6	RP Cody Allen	49 G, 5-1, 2.47 ERA, 60 K, 47.1 IP	18:1
7	SS Nick Franklin	.247/.315/.445, 10 HR, 33 RBI, 24 R	18:1
8	OF David Lough	.299/.314/.439, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 27 R	15:1
9	SP Martin Perez	10 GS, 4-3, 3.81 ERA, 39 K, 59.0 IP	12:1
10	SP Nick Tepesch	16 GS, 4-6, 4.85 ERA, 70 K, 85.1 IP	20:1

The Rays have no shortage of impact rookies this season, and the duo of Wil Myers and Chris Archer look like the front-runners to capture the award at this point. Archer has the better case as of now, but Myers has been red-hot of late and should only boost his stock moving forward.

Daniel Straily has not been as impressive as he was in a brief showing last season, but he's been a solid contributor to the Oakland starting rotation. Likewise, Nick Tepesch played a big role in keeping the Rangers rotation afloat in the early going, and Martin Perez looks like he'll play a big role in that same staff down the stretch.

The Rays also have a solid middle reliever in Alex Torres, who has allowed just 13 hits and four earned runs in 36.2 innings of work. Indians reliever Cody Allen has put up fantastic numbers in the late innings as well and looks like he could be a future closer.

Shortstop Jose Iglesias, who was dealt from the Red Sox to the Tigers, has slowed offensively since the All-Star break, but his overall numbers are impressive nonetheless. Fellow rookie hitters Nick Franklin and David Lough have made a solid impact for their teams as well and look to have a bright future.

Note: Leonys Martin lost his rookie status by spending more than 45 days in the major leagues in the 2011 and 2012 seasons combined.

NL Cy Young

Rank	Name	Stats	Odds
1	SP Clayton Kershaw	24 GS, 10-7, 1.91 ERA, 166 K, 174.1 IP	3:1
2	SP Matt Harvey	23 GS, 9-3, 2.09 ERA, 178 K, 159.2 IP	5:1
3	SP Patrick Corbin	22 GS, 12-3, 2.33 ERA, 129 K, 150.1 IP	9:1
4	SP Adam Wainwright	24 GS, 13-7, 2.66 ERA, 156 K, 175.2 IP	8:1
5	SP Jose Fernandez	22 GS, 8-5, 2.58 ERA, 143 K, 132.2 IP	15:1
6	RP Craig Kimbrel	46 G, 36-of-39 SV, 1.19 ERA, 14.3 K/9	18:1
7	SP Francisco Liriano	16 GS, 12-4, 2.02 ERA, 106 K. 102.2 IP	12:1
8	SP Madison Bumgarner	23 GS, 11-7, 2.75 ERA, 150 K, 154.0 IP	22:1
9	SP Mike Minor	23 GS, 11-5, 2.76 ERA, 137 K, 150.0 IP	20:1
10	SP Jordan Zimmermann	23 GS, 13-6, 3.10 ERA, 114 K, 151.0 IP	22:1

With all due respect to the season that Matt Harvey is having, which featured another highlight Wednesday night when he threw his first complete-game shutout, the Cy Young favorite right now has to be Clayton Kershaw.

Harvey may wind up having his innings limited down the stretch, but as of now it's a tight race between the two. Patrick Corbin and Adam Wainwright are also having terrific seasons and have an outside chance at taking home the honors.

Rookie Jose Fernandez has gotten better and better as the season has progressed, while young starters Mike Minor, Madison Bumgarner and Jordan Zimmermann continue to climb the ranks of the game's elite. Overpowering closer Craig Kimbrel looks like he has a solid chance of cracking the top 10 in voting for the third straight season as well.

The dark horse of the voting may be Pirates left-hander Francisco Liriano, who has not made enough starts to qualify for the ERA title but has been nothing short of phenomenal in his 16 starts. He should play a major role down the stretch.

AL Cy Young

Rank	Name	Stats	Odds
1	SP Max Scherzer	23 GS, 17-1, 2.84 ERA, 175 K, 158.1 IP	4:1
2	SP Felix Hernandez	24 GS, 11-5, 2.39 ERA, 169 K, 165.2 IP	4:1
3	SP Yu Darvish	22 GS, 11-5, 2.72 ERA, 192 K, 145.2 IP	10:1
4	SP Hiroki Kuroda	23 GS, 10-7, 2.45 ERA, 103 K, 146.2 IP	12:1
5	SP Bartolo Colon	23 GS, 14-4, 2.75 ERA, 80 K, 150.1 IP	12:1
6	SP Chris Sale	21 GS, 7-11, 2.77 ERA, 161 K, 149.1 IP	15:1
7	RP Mariano Rivera	45 G, 35-of-38 SV, 1.70 ERA, 8.7 K/9	20:1
8	SP Justin Masterson	24 GS, 13-8, 3.46 ERA, 166 K, 163.2 IP	15:1
9	SP Matt Moore	21 GS, 14-3, 3.41 ERA, 115 K, 121.1 IP	15:1
10	SP Hisashi Iwakuma	24 GS, 10-5, 2.75 ERA, 135 K, 157.1 IP	20:1

At this point, the AL Cy Young competition looks like a two-horse race between Max Scherzer and Felix Hernandez. While Hernandez may end the year with the better peripheral numbers, my guess is the award goes to Scherzer, much like R.A. Dickey getting the nod over Clayton Kershaw last season.

The second tier of candidates is fronted by Yu Darvish, who has emerged as a legitimate ace in Texas this season and has a good chance of leading all of baseball in strikeouts. Just behind him, the veteran duo of Hiroki Kuroda (38) and Bartolo Colon (40) have both found the fountain of youth this season.

Chris Sale may not have the most impressive record playing for the struggling White Sox, but his secondary numbers show he's one of the best in the business. Matt Moore and Hisashi Iwakuma have both built off of solid rookie seasons last year, while Justin Masterson has finally put it all together as the ace of the surging Indians.

The wild card here is Mariano Rivera, and while guys like Joe Nathan, Greg Holland and Grant Balfour are just as deserving for consideration as he is, the fact that this is his final season will no doubt boost his stock in the eyes of voters.

NL MVP

Rank	Name	Stats	Odds
1	CF Andrew McCutchen	.313/.386/.512, 16 HR, 65 RBI, 24 SB	4:1
2	C Yadier Molina	.330/.374/.479, 8 HR, 54 RBI, 46 R	5:1
3	LF Carlos Gonzalez	.302/.367/.591, 26 HR, 70 RBI, 21 SB	8:1
4	1B Joey Votto	.324/.438/.511, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 77 R	6:1
5	SP Clayton Kershaw	24 GS, 10-7, 1.91 ERA, 166 K, 174.1 IP	12:1
6	1B Paul Goldschmidt	.299/.390/.545, 26 HR, 90 RBI, 11 SB	10:1
7	3B David Wright	.309/.391/.512, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 17 SB	18:1
8	1B Freddie Freeman	.311/.389/.474, 13 HR, 76 RBI, 62 R	20:1
9	CF Carlos Gomez	.288/.339/.526, 18 HR, 54 RBI, 29 SB	25:1
10	1B Allen Craig	.318/.366/.464, 11 HR, 86 RBI, 62 R	15:1

At this point, the two front-runners for NL MVP both reside in the NL Central, and they'll likely play a huge role in who walks away with the division title. Andrew McCutchen has surged into the NL MVP picture with a 1.090 OPS over the past month, while Yadier Molina has fallen back a bit after landing on the DL with a sprained knee.

Carlos Gonzalez is close behind. He has the numbers to make a case for the award, but the Rockies' drop-off bumps him to the second tier. If Clayton Kershaw can keep his ERA under 2.00, he'll likely get some serious consideration as well, though a pitcher winning the MVP doesn't happen very often.

Joey Votto continues to put up phenomenal on-base numbers, while Paul Goldschmidt still has an impressive stat line despite a second-half slump in which he's hitting just .227/.366/.485. 

Allen Craig leads all of baseball with a .468 average with runners in scoring position, Freddie Freeman has been the most consistent player on a very good Braves team, and David Wright and Carlos Gomez have performed like superstars despite the struggles of their respective teams.

AL MVP

Rank	Name	Stats	Odds
1	3B Miguel Cabrera	.359/.454/.666, 33 HR, 105 RBI, 81 R	3:1
2	CF Mike Trout	.333/.424/.580, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 24 SB	3:1
3	1B Chris Davis	.302/.375/.676, 41 HR, 106 RBI, 80 R	4:1
4	DH David Ortiz	.332/.412/.587, 21 HR, 73 RBI, 56 R	8:1
5	1B Edwin Encarnacion	.283/.375/.553, 30 HR, 89 RBI, 71 R	12:1
6	SP Max Scherzer	23 GS, 17-1, 2.84 ERA, 175 K, 158.1 IP	15:1
7	3B Evan Longoria	.267/.342/.493, 22 HR, 62 RBI, 66 R	12:1
8	2B Robinson Cano	.287/.371/.492, 22 HR, 71 RBI, 58 R	20:1
9	3B Adrian Beltre	.319/.364/.535, 25 HR, 70 RBI, 65 R	18:1
10	2B Jason Kipnis	.294/.371/.490, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 21 SB	18:1

A year after the debate between Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout for AL MVP seemingly split the baseball world down the middle, it looks as though those two will be battling it out for the award once again this season.

The numbers Chris Davis has put up can't be ignored either, but he's hit just .235/.289/.471 since the All-Star break, and he's fallen behind the aforementioned duo for front-runner status.

Sluggers David Ortiz, Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre and Robinson Cano have all led their respective teams' offenses and kept them in the playoff race. Edwin Encarnacion may wind up putting up better numbers than all of them but will do it while playing for the disappointing Blue Jays.

The wild cards look to be Tigers starter Max Scherzer and Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis. If Scherzer piles up something like 23 or 24 victories, he'll get serious consideration. Kipnis is one of the breakout superstars of 2013 and will see his stock boosted if the Indians can capture a playoff spot.