Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts: Who Wins the AFC South in 2013?

The Houston Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts for the AFC South title in 2012 by a mere one game. The Texans won 12 games and the Colts won 11.  

But that one-game margin was a lot bigger than it looked. 

With a point differential that ranked 21st of the 32 teams in the league, and an expected record of approximately 7 wins and 9 losses, the Colts were a mediocre team that masqueraded itself as a good team.

The Texans, meanwhile, ranked eighth in point differential despite playing a much more difficult schedule than the Colts (per ESPN), and possessed superior talent on both sides of the ball. They stood three games ahead of the Colts heading into Week 16 before losing their last two games, while the Colts won their last two. 

In 2013, the Colts look to provide a better challenge to the Texans, talent-wise. The Colts were very active in free agency and made some schematic changes that should help the offense flourish. 

Let's look at how the two teams match up at all the major position groups, as well as coaching.  

Position depth will be taken into account, as will the talent at the starting position(s).

Note: All stats are from Pro-Football-Reference, unless otherwise indicated.

Quarterbacks

The Texans have Matt Schaub starting here. The 32-year-old Schaub isn't a star, but he still possesses the tools to lead an elite team. 

Second-year quarterback Andrew Luck, meanwhile, leads the Colts. Although the basic passing stats won't support it, Luck is a better quarterback than Schaub.

The new QBR rating formula gave Luck (65) the edge over Schaub (62.6) in 2012. Keep in mind, this formula takes into account the ability to perform in the clutch, as well as running ability. 

Heading forward, Luck will also be in an offense that maximizes his abilities better with his college offensive coordinator, Pep Hamilton. Hamilton's "No Coast" offense utilizes shorter passes than what Bruce Arians used with the Colts last year. 

The Texans have T.J. Yates as the backup, and the Colts have Matt Hasselbeck.

Luck is better than Schaub, and Hasselbeck is better than Yates. 

Advantage: Colts

Running Backs/Fullbacks

Three-time Pro Bowler Arian Foster is one of the top five running backs in the game. His combination of amazing vision and balance is what helps him run over defenses.

The Colts haven't officially announced their No. 1 running back, but former New York Giant Ahmad Bradshaw and the incumbent, Vick Ballard, will be the two main candidates. Bradshaw is a tough runner and pass protector while Ballard is a bowling-ball downhill runner. 

Ben Tate is the Texans' backup at running back, and he looks to bounce back to his status of one of the top backups in the league after an injury-plagued 2012 season. 

The Colts will have Donald Brown and Delone Carter battling for the No. 3 running back slot in training camp. 

The Texans acquired Greg Jones from the Jaguars. Jones is one of the premier fullbacks in the NFL while the Colts have Stanley Havili. Havili is an up-and-coming player who is not at Jones' level yet.

Advantage: Texans

Wide Receivers

The Texans have the best receiver of the two teams, Andre Johnson. Johnson was No. 2 in the NFL in receiving yards (1598), and received 58.1 percent of Schaub's targets to receivers, according to CBS Sports.

Opposite Johnson, the Texans' first-round pick, DeAndre Hopkins, will look to become a reliable No. 2 receiver. Hopkins is not a great athlete, but he runs routes well and has solid hands. 

After those two, there is very little proven NFL talent. Lestar Jean, Keshawn Martin and Devier Posey are young and inexperienced.

Reggie Wayne, however, is the Colts' star. The old warhorse has some of the best of the hands in the game, and still runs pristine routes. 

T.Y. Hilton was a revelation in his rookie year, catching 50 passes for 861 yards and 7 touchdowns for the Colts.

Speedster Darrius Heyward-Bey will be the third receiver, and he has the potential to explode with a reliable quarterback throwing him the ball. His career high is 975 yards receiving. 

After those three, LaVon Brazill and Nathan Palmer lead the pack.

Advantage: Colts

Tight Ends

The Texans are solid at the tight end position, with 30-year-old veteran Owen Daniels leading the way. Daniels has decent hands and runs good routes. Unfortunately, Daniels can't block at all. 

Garrett Graham is a versatile backup who is limited athletically but blocks well and catches some passes with soft hands.

The Colts possess an up-and-coming tight end duo of sophomores Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. Allen was fantastic as a rookie in 2012, while Fleener struggled a bit but flashed great potential. 

Allen makes his living with his crushing blocks, while Fleener is a freak athlete receiving the ball. 

In 2013, Fleener should benefit from having his college offensive coordinator, Pep Hamilton, calling the plays for the Colts. 

Advantage: Colts

Offensive Line

The Texans have a decisive edge over the Colts on the offensive line, despite the Colts' attempts to upgrade their line this offseason.

Duane Brown and Chris Myers, the Texans' starting left tackle and center, respectively, are two of the best at their position. The remaining three starters, Wade Smith, Ben Jones and Derek Newton are nothing to write home about.

Meanwhile, the Colts possess no elite talent on the line. Former first-round pick Anthony Castonzo improved last season, but still struggles protecting the passer. 

Free-agency acquisitions Donald Thomas and Gosder Cherilus are slated as starters at left guard and right tackle, respectively, but neither are stars. 

Samson Satele is a decent center, and right guard Mike McGlynn will look to redeem himself after a horrid 2012 season. 

According to Pro Football Focus, the Colts had the No. 31 offensive line in the NFL in 2012. The Texans were No. 10.

The Colts will be better, but nowhere near good enough to rival the Texans on the offensive line.

Advantage: Texans

Defensive Line

The Texans have J.J. Watt here—next.

But really, J.J. Watt turned in one of the best defensive seasons in NFL history last year, and he did it from the position of 3-4 defensive end. 

At a position usually designated for occupying blockers and freeing up linebackers to make plays, Watt totaled 81 tackles and 20.5 sacks. He was the obvious choice for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. 

To see all of his sacks, watch these highlights from NFL.com.

Starting at nose tackle and left end are Earl Mitchell and Antonio Smith. Mitchell is a first-year starter and Smith is solid, but J.J. Watt single-handedly makes this a fearsome defensive line.

The Colts' line is much less talented than the Texans' line. The Colts are probably deeper, but no players stand out like Watt, much less Antonio Smith. The best starter is arguably Cory Redding, the left end.

Advantage: Texans

Linebackers

The Texans have the most talented player on either linebacking corps, inside linebacker Brian Cushing. Cushing. Cushing tore his ACL last October, but he has fully recovered and will return for training camp. 

The rest of the starting 'backers are young, but talented, especially outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus. 

Mercilus registered six sacks despite only starting in three games in 2012.

The Colts are solid here as well, with inside linebackers Pat Angerer and and Jerrell Freeman leading the way. Angerer was angered by an injury-plagued 2012 season, while Freeman finished fifth in the NFL in tackles in his first year with the Colts after playing in the Canadian Football League.

Veteran Robert Mathis is a solid presence at the right outside linebacker slot, even if it isn't his natural position of defensive end. 

The depth is also good here for the Colts.

Advantage: Even

Secondary

In 2012, the Texans finished tops in the league in opponent passing completion percentage (53.0 percent, according to ESPN).

With the addition of Ed Reed, the secondary should only get better in 2013. 

Reed joins Kareem Jackson, Danieal Manning and Johnathan Joseph in what should be one of the top units in the NFL. 

The Colts are decent here, with no glaring weaknesses at the starting positions, but no real strengths either. 

They did sign LaRon Landry from the New York Jets, who will start at strong safety for the Colts. Landry is a beast in run support and as a tackler, but he won't do anything to help the Colts improve a mediocre pass defense (No. 21 in opponent's passing yards).

Advantage: Texans

Special Teams

The Texans struggled greatly here in 2012. They didn't return any punts or kicks for touchdowns, while they gave up a total of three to their opponents.

In fact, Football Outsiders actually ranked the Texans' special teams as the worst in the NFL. 

To help fix their special teams, Houston signed veteran star punter Shane Lechler, who might have the most powerful punting leg in the NFL. His accuracy isn't always the best, but his power makes up for it. 

The Colts, meanwhile, were ranked No. 12 in special teams in the NFL. Punter Pat McAfee punts with good power and accuracy, and the return and coverage units have improved significantly in the past couple of years.

Adam Vinatieri is no longer near one of the best kickers in the game, but the Colts still have enough to beat the Texans here.

Advantage: Colts

Intangibles

In this area, we look at the impact of coaching, as well as the schedules.

Gary Kubiak is one of the better coaches in the NFL. He has brought a winning mentality to the Texans and is a good on-field decision maker for the most part. Wade Phillips is an elite defensive coordinator. 

The Colts are solid in terms of coaching, with second-year head coach Chuck Pagano coming back to coach the team for (hopefully) a full season this time around. New offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton should mesh well with Andrew Luck and Coby Fleener, two of his former players at Stanford, where he was the offensive coordinator.

In terms of schedule, this is where the Colts pull ahead of the Texans, if only slightly. The Colts have the third-easiest schedule in 2013, per NFL.com, while the Texans are at sixth-easiest. 

The Texans have a very tough three-game stretch near the beginning of the season which includes the following games: at the Baltimore Ravens, home against the Seattle Seahawks and away against the San Francisco 49ers.

Advantage: Colts

Bottom Line: Who Wins the Division?

The Colts hold a slight advantage over the Texans in the previous categories, with five wins, four losses and one tie.

With all apologies to Colts fans, however, I have to give the Texans the overall edge in 2013. 

Some of the positions where the Colts are the weakest (offensive line, defensive line) coincide with elite Texan units. Meanwhile, many of the Colts' advantages (tight ends, special teams, intangibles) are very close. 

In 2013, look for the Texans to win 12 games and finish two wins ahead of the 10-win Colts. 

The Colts will be an improved team, and should grab a wild-card spot, but they won't finish ahead of the Texans in the AFC South.

The pick: Houston Texans