MLB Draft 2013: Predicting When Top Prospects Will Make Big League Debuts

Several teams in the 2013 MLB draft will be looking to draft prospects that can contribute on a big league roster as quickly as possible. Others are in a position where they can afford to wait three or four years for a prospect to fully develop.

Most prospects who will have their names called in the first round of the draft Thursday night shouldn’t take more than four years before making their major league debuts. Some have the potential to get the call in one or two years, but they’d have to play extremely well early on.

For example, Kevin Gausman—a pitcher from LSU—went fourth overall to the Baltimore Orioles just a year ago and he’s already pitched for them this season. But there are still dozens of top prospects from last year's draft class that are in Single-A and Double-A.

It’s hard to predict how quick or slow prospects will make it to the big leagues, but that’s what we’re going to try to do here. In addition to their major league ETAs, we’ll analyze where each top prospect might go in the draft and how the organization may have an impact of their debut.

Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, San Diego

Draft Projection: No. 5, Cleveland Indians

This slugger from San Diego has insane power. He’s shown that throughout his entire junior season, slugging .820 with 31 home runs and 62 RBI through 62 games. There’s not another college prospect in nation that’s averaging a home run every other game.

Bryant recently struggled at the College World Series Regionals, going just 2-for-13 with a pair of infield singles. San Diego was eliminated after going 2-2 in the Regional round. I doubt that his poor performance will affect his draft stock much, but it is worth noting that he was going up against some of Division I’s top talent.

If Bryant can’t hit the best college pitching there is, how is he going to hit minor league or major league pitching? That might be what scouts and big league executives are talking about now, but they still know that Bryant can hit and that he can drive the ball very far.

The Indians should have the chance to select Bryant, and that’s where he fits best. Cleveland has Michael Bourn roaming center for the next couple of years with guys like Michael Brantley, Tyler Naquin and Luigi Rodriguez expected to be in the mix too. If Bryant’s power follows him through the minors, he’ll be up in no time.

Projected ETA: Late-2015

 

Braden Shipley, RHP, Nevada

Draft Projection: No. 8, Kansas City Royals

Nevada’s top pitcher hasn’t gotten the hype that prospects such as Jonathan Gray or Mark Appel have, but Braden Shipley is also one of the best arms in the draft class. He won’t likely get drafted until after the top five, though, and is probably a fringe top-10 pick.

Shipley went 7-3 for Nevada this year with a 2.77 ERA. He averaged nearly a strikeout per inning across 107.1 innings while walking just 34 batters. He did a great job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing just four home runs all year long. He has good command and a great arsenal of pitches that he uses in a variety of counts.

Shipley could end up being a No. 2 starter in the big leagues if he continues to master a couple of his pitches. That’s most likely his ceiling, though. It’s unlikely that he turns into a Justin Verlander-, Stephen Strasburg- or David Price-type starting pitcher in the majors—meaning an ace.

Like I said, Shipley will probably go in the top 10, and the Royals are the team I think will end up landing him. Kansas City has a couple of good pitching prospects throughout its system, but could certainly use another one. Shipley might need the average amount of time to get to the Royals, but will be solid once he does.

Projected ETA: Mid-2016

 

Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville HS (Ga.)

Draft Projection: No. 7, Boston Red Sox

Clint Frazier is easily the top high school position player in this year’s draft class. While he’s comparable some of the other young bats, his production this past year has really set him apart from the rest of the pack. He hit .485 with 17 home runs and 45 RBI this season, according to a press release, per the Wall Street Journal.

Oh, and Frazier was recently named the Gatorade National Baseball Player of the Year, according to the release. Baseball America's Jim Callis said that Frazier is the best high school prospect in the country, he’s had a great year and is deserving of the honor, per the release.

Frazier will be drafted within the first 10 picks of the draft, but where exactly has yet to be determined. He’s a great hitter and a lot of teams are looking for prospects that have solid bats. The Red Sox are one team that I think would take him, if he got to them at No. 7.

The future of Jacoby Ellsbury in Boston is still up in the air, but the Red Sox will most certainly have Jackie Bradley, Jr. in the mix. Boston also has Bryce Brentz waiting in the wings. Aside from those two prospects, there’s no clear-cut third outfielder. Frazier may have the opportunity to be that guy.

Projected ETA: Early-2016