NFL MVP Predictions: 6 Preseason Picks Through Week 4

Just before the season, ESPN.com released a compilation of preseason predictions from 12 of their writers.  In the conversation for MVP, six players were ultimately named in this list including Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Arian Foster, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Eli Manning.

In a year where there has been enough excitement and controversy in the first four weeks to fill an entire season, some of these players have faltered while others have thrived. 

1. Aaron Rodgers

Replacement officials had arguably the greatest impact on the Green Bay Packers more than on any one team, but that has only masked the inefficiencies of the Packer offense through the first three games. 

At a glance, Aaron Rodgers has not appeared as infallible, having already been sacked 18 times on the season.  While this may be the fault of the offensive line, the result is that Rodgers has thrown for just seven touchdowns in contrast to three interceptions.

In addition, the reigning MVP has produced a below average QBR of 60.9 and a 2-2 team struggling to regain control of the NFC North.

2. Eli Manning

It would be impossible to criticize Aaron Rodgers and still herald Eli Manning the way many have after his comeback against the Buccaneers in Week 4 and his dominance of Carolina in Week 3.  Regardless, New York is still only 2-2 on the year after falling to division rivals Dallas and Philadelphia. 

Manning’s postseason success is undeniable and he looks poised to translate that level of play into the regular season, but to this point has failed to do so.  Only in New York’s win over Carolina has Manning’s QBR exceeded 60.0 and that production spells another average performance for the Giants and Manning.

3. Tom Brady

Tom Brady’s New England Patriots are another team that has lost two close games, debatably as a result of poor calls from replacement officials.  Nonetheless, these controversial loses late in games have more directly resulted from poor offensive production elsewhere in each game. 

By the numbers, however, Brady has appeared productive.  The two-time MVP allowed only one interception in New England’s Week 2 loss to Arizona, where Brady posted a 30.6 QBR while being held without a touchdown through the first three quarters. 

Perhaps the biggest flaw with Brady is the level of inconsistency that the entire New England offense has demonstrated.  While they dominated in the first quarter of the Week 3 loss to Baltimore, they failed to pick up crucial first downs that could have put the game out of reach.

Similarly, although New England put up 45 second-half points against Buffalo, they managed only seven in the first half.  Such inconsistencies will have to be eliminated if Brady is going to win his third MVP title.

4. Drew Brees

Statistically, Drew Brees could have earned the MVP award a year ago, having eclipsed Dan Marino for passing yards in a single season.  Brees reached another milestone on Sunday, tying Johnny Unitas’s record of 47 consecutive games with a touchdown completion.  Yet, despite all of this success in recent years, turmoil in the Saints organization has left the team winless through their first four games. 

Even with over 1,000 yards passing and three games having thrown for three touchdowns, Brees has failed to complete more than 65 percent of his passes in any game this season.  Given his conflicting statistics in this regard, it seems appropriate to look to his QBR for clarification, but even that is a paltry 53.8. 

More than anything it seems New Orleans’s record would keep him from being a legitimate contender at this point in the year, but a drastic turn around could change both the MVP conversation as well as the Saints’ season.

5. Arian Foster

While the last five MVPs have been exclusively quarterbacks, few players are more dangerous than a healthy Arian Foster.  However, Foster’s greatest value comes from the foundation he provides for the Houston Texans.  The resurgence of Matt Schaub returning from a foot injury last season, as well as deep threat Andre Johnson, limits Foster’s touches a bit more, but still he has managed four touchdowns in as many weeks, as well as two games with over 100 yards rushing.  If he stays healthy, it is not a long shot that Foster will remain in this conversation come December.

6. Matt Ryan

Despite a slow start to the 2011 campaign, Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons have come out of the gate hot in 2012.  Now, the Falcons look more and more like the 13-3 Atlanta team that clinched home field throughout the playoffs in 2010.  Though they have lost their first playoff appearance in each of the last two years, Ryan and company have not lost their edge. 

While Ryan has appeared flawless in his first three games of the season, perhaps his most impressive game was on Sunday against Carolina, when he remained poised after three touchdowns and two interceptions before bringing Atlanta back within field goal range twice to win.

Should it continue, composure such as Ryan has exemplified in these first four weeks could manifest itself in a Falcons post season run and as well as an MVP for the seasoned quarterback.