Week 1 NFL Picks: 5 Locks Guaranteed to Cover the Spread

Certainly there are money-starved gamblers out there this Thursday morning who are sulking after picking the New York Giants to cover the spread against the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL season opener on Wednesday night. 

To be perfectly honest, Giants-Cowboys was probably a game to avoid in the first place. 

However, there are games this weekend that look like sure bets. 

Here are five teams who look ready to cover their spreads this weekend. 

Note: All lines taken from Bovada.net, via ESPN. 

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions

Spread: Opened at Lions -9.0, currently Lions -6.5 

A nine-point spread to open the week might have been a little high, but is it so hard to believe the Lions will win their home-opener by at least a touchdown against a team coming off a two-win season? That's all Detroit currently needs to do with the line set at 6.5. 

The nuts and bolts of this argument lie in the Rams' pass defense; a unit that doesn't even have the start of an answer to Lions receiver Calvin Johnson. The All-Pro could go off against a mostly young, unproven secondary. 

On the other side of the ball, St. Louis may not have enough outside weapons to expose the Lions' biggest weakness in the secondary.

The Rams are 1-9 covering the spread in their last 10 road games.

Pick: Lions -6.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Opened at Ravens -7.0, currently Ravens -6.0

Consider me in the group that remains not sold on the Cincinnati Bengals. 

A 9-7 record was a fantastic achievement for this team a season ago, considering the circumstances, but who did they beat?

The Bengals overcame Cleveland twice, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Seattle, Tennessee, St. Louis and Arizona—not exactly a murderers' row of wins. Whenever Cincinnati had to face a playoff team, it fell on its face. 

That's why I'm going with the Ravens covering a six-point spread at home. Baltimore beat Cincinnati by more than two field goals in both matchups, and only once did the Bengals stick within a six-point radius of a playoff team in 2011. 

Pick: Ravens -6.0

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Opener at Patriots +7.0, currently Patriots +6.0

This is one of the more fascinating opening games, in my opinion. 

An older Tom Brady, leading a fireworks offense, faces off against a young Jake Locker as he makes his first ever NFL start. Add in a couple of rookie studs on the Patriots defense, and I think Brady finds a way to leave Tennessee with more than a six-point win. 

There is some risk here, especially with the Pats playing on the road with a still unproven pass defense.

However, doesn't this just have the feel of a 35-24 win for New England? Offense commands, defense survives. Patriots by more than six should be a good bet.

Pick: Patriots +6.0

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Spread: Opened at Jets -6.0, currently Jets -3.0

It's hard to believe Vegas opened this line with the Jets at minus-6.0. It's difficult now to even see them covering a three-point spread against a team that matches up very well with New York.

I won't hash into the Jets' scoring troubles this preseason, because it's a worn-out story that could mean zip. However, the Buffalo defensive line could very well have its way with what is a shaky offensive line in New York. If that happens, I can't see the Jets winning this football game. 

Receiver Stevie Johnson has also been successful against Darrelle Revis in the past, even if he is dealing with a hamstring issue. 

It's going out on a limb to call the Bills a lock to cover, but I have a hard time seeing them losing this game on Sunday.

Pick: Bills against Jets -3.0

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Opened at Eagles +6.5, currently Eagles +9.0

The nine-point spread for a road team will scare off most, and it's reason for a quick pause. 

However, in a purely football sense, the talent gap between these two teams is probably far more than nine points. 

The one factor that pushes the scales for me is the Eagles' defensive line against Browns rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden. Arguably the top front four in football—with backups that would start in most places—should continually collapse the pocket on Weeden, who looked a little skittish in the preseason when things started breaking down. 

If Weeden struggles—and I think he will—the Eagles win their opener in comfortable fashion. 

Pick: Eagles +9.0