Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections: Flex Plays Facing Favorable Matchups

When looking at a sea of bench players on a fantasy football roster, it is often difficult to choose which running back, wide receiver or tight end to put in a flex spot.

The starting spaces are generally easy to fill, but later-round picks inspire far less confidence in their fantasy owners. But whether you are eyeing a TE, RB or WR for you flex position, the key to making the right decision lies in the matchup your player is facing.

Even some of the NFL’s best defenses have weaknesses that can be exploited, and a big tight end or a speedy scatback can find holes for impressive performances against seemingly difficult opponents.

Here are the players who should not be kept on the bench in Week 1.

Note: all points against statistics courtesy of NFL.com and based on standard scoring.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers

All signs point to Williams having an excellent game to open up the season.

The Panthers are facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were atrocious against the run last season. The Bucs allowed more yards and touchdowns—and thus fantasy points—to running backs than any other team in the NFL.

Williams has always frustrated fantasy owners because he splits carries with Jonathan Stewart. However, Stewart is still not practicing due to an ankle injury, as reported by the Associated Press’ Steve Reed (via The State), and he may not play at all in the opening game.

Cam Newton will still rack up yards on the ground, and Mike Tolbert could factor into the running game as well, but Williams will get more carries than usual against an awful run defense, and this makes him an excellent flex play.

Nate Washington, Tennessee, Wide Receiver

Washington is another player who will benefit due to a favorable matchup and the absence of a player ahead of him on the depth chart.

Kenny Britt looked like a fantasy stud early last year, but he will miss the Titans' Week 1 game against the New England Patriots due to suspension. This leaves Washington as the main target for new Tennessee starter Jake Locker.

Among NFL teams, New England allowed the most yards, receptions and fantasy points to wide receivers. The team will improve on defense this year after revamping its front seven in the draft, but there are still gaping holes in the secondary.

Locker will appreciate this favorable matchup for his first season opener, and Washington will reap the benefits.

Coby Fleener, Tight End, Indianapolis Colts

Playing two tight ends in your starting lineup is generally not an advisable decision, but if you are forced into this situation, Fleener is the player ranked outside of most people’s top 12 who will have the best week. 

The rookie out of Stanford already has excellent chemistry with his quarterback—fellow Cardinal first-year Andrew Luck. Young passers often rely on their tight ends as outlets, making this a potentially productive combination for Fleener’s fantasy owners. 

The Colts are matching up against the Chicago Bears, who allowed the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends last year. Brian Urlacher will likely be struggling to play through a knee injury, and a youthful, athletic tight end like Fleener will give him problems.

The Colts’ rookies appear ready for a surprising performance against Chicago, and those with Fleener on their bench and an open flex spot will not regret giving him a chance.

Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit Lions

Smith is a safe bet to be the Lions’ top running back to start the season. Down the road, Jahvid Best and Mikel Leshoure could cut into his carries. But for now, Best is on the physically unable to perform list and Leshoure is suspended for the first two games of the season.

Smith dealt with an injury scare, but Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported on Monday that the RB is practicing. This is excellent news for his fantasy owners, as they will not want him missing a tasty matchup with the St. Louis Rams. 

The Rams gave up the fifth most fantasy points to running backs last season. The team allowed the third most yards and touchdowns.

While the Lions are a throwing team, they will use Smith to keep the St. Louis defense honest. Given the Rams' porous run defense, he will be productive with his chances.