Great Expectations: The New F1 Season

We're almost there now; it's just four weeks until the first F1 weekend of 2009.

It is a time of hope and renewal, when we can harbour great expectations of the season ahead. Is there one thing we all want to see?

Surely we all want a great contest.

We want our hero to win the race, but only after a desperate struggle culminating in a thrilling overtake on the last lap. That is certainly what I am looking for every F1 season, but it almost never happens.

If there is one sport that consistently delivers great contests, it has to be tennis. I'm no expert on the game, but my wife is a really big fan, so it is frequently on our TV.

Tennis matches are sometimes one-sided walkovers, true. Very often though, they are epic battles in which players come within an inch of victory, but are overthrown by an opponent who recovers from the very cusp of defeat.

Dramatic tension exists as a natural consequence of the scoring system and the mismatches between the power and skills of the players, so it can be a most compelling sport to watch.

I have given tennis as an example of a sport where all the elements are human elements, the equipment means nothing.

There is a special problem inherent to motor sports, it is the inevitable dominance of the mechanical elements. The engine cannot summon up superhuman reserves of strength and endurance as a great athlete can, the suspension and aero parts cannot do more than a cold-hearted computer designed them to do.

All too often, then, the outcome of an F1 race is effectively pre-determined before a wheel has turned.

If on a particular circuit car X laps 0.3 seconds faster than car Y, then car X is likely to be three seconds ahead after 10 laps. Time and again, that is precisely what we have seen happen in F1. Unless a driver forgets to turn into a corner, or his pit crew commit some grievous blunder, the track becomes a highway of monotony.

That's when you turn the volume down and finish your drink, it's snoozing time again. Maybe you'll wake up in time for the last lap, only to groan when the top 10 are ordered precisely as they were 57 laps ago.

The people who run F1 are not stupid.

You can let fly at them with a magnum load of adjectives; I'm right behind you. Venal, greedy, arrogant, corrupt, dishonest, self-absorbed—you can call them what you like, but they are not stupid.

To fund the yachts and the girls and the whole champagne lifestyle requires that F1 maintains a high public profile and massive numbers of TV viewers. Realising that bored viewers can swiftly become ex-viewers, the F1 bosses have taken action.

So this year we are seeing major changes to the formula of F1, most of them designed in the interests of providing a great contest. Engine development remains frozen, to stop the top teams pulling further away.

Slick tyres are back, and aero effects have been reduced, to allegedly provide better overtaking opportunities. The points system remains the same, however, so a lazy cruise to second or third place in race after race can still richly reward a driver.

Still, I've started every F1 season with my great expectations, and maybe this year will be the golden one. I want to see the recognised top drivers have to fight as never before for podium places.

I want to see the lower teams such as Torro Rosso and Red Bull regularly take points and podiums.

I want to see BMW-Sauber reach parity with McLaren and Ferrari.

I want to see Renault back on the pace.

I want to see the back-markers of the past few seasons prove that their engineers and drivers have some idea of what they're doing.

I want to see every race decided on the track, none of them in the pit lane or the stewards' box.

Just four weeks then, until the lights signal the start of F1 2009. Engines will scream, wheels will spin, and this fan will lean forward in his seat, eager for some momentous high-speed contests.

Will I be disappointed?