Identifying the Most Valuable Fantasy Football Player in 2012

Rob Gronkowski was the most valuable fantasy player in 2011.

Hey, wait a second—didn't Aaron Rodgers finish with the most points in standard-scoring leagues last season?

He sure did.

So how does Gronk earn the MVFP?

Overall points scored is the most obvious indicator of value for fantasy players, but there are other ways to determine a player's ultimate worth. Consider that Gronkowski was far and away the best tight end last year, with 46 more fantasy points than the second-best tight end (Jimmy Graham) and 106 more points than the third-best tight end (Aaron Hernandez).

There wasn't another player at any position that came close to possessing that much more value over their positional counterparts.

Plus, Gronkowski came on the cheap at fantasy drafts last year. Along with Cam Newton and Victor Cruz, he was easily one of the steals of the 2011 season.

Oh, and he still finished with the 15th-most points in fantasy, better than all but four running backs and one wide receiver.

So that's how I determine value: overall points scored, positional value and draft-day value. Let's predict a few winners for each category and then name an overall MVFP for 2012.

Most Points Scored: Aaron Rodgers

Like last year, I believe Aaron Rodgers will once again earn this distinction. There's nothing to suggest we will see a regression from his epic 2011.

Sure, is it natural to think Rodgers might taper off slightly after setting personal bests in passing yards (4,643), touchdowns (45) and interceptions (6) last season? 

I suppose so, but when you consider that he's in his prime, is surrounded by fantastic weapons and will probably need to put up big numbers just to win since the defense isn't very good, he might actually be better this season. 

Plus, he's rushed for 16 touchdowns in the past four years, which always helps his value. So if total points are the ultimate determining factor, then Aaron Rodgers will be the most valuable fantasy player in 2012. Again.

Value Over Others at Same Position: Calvin Johnson

I think Brees, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford will all have huge seasons, so I don't think we'll see a major discrepancy between points at the top. Though running back is a mess, Ray Rice and Arian Foster should still finish close in points, with LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson and a healthy (for once) Darren McFadden on their heels.

And Rob Gronkowski will be great again, but Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez and Antonio Gates will even the playing field. 

Which leaves Calvin Johnson. If there is a player who put up monstrous numbers at receiver last season and is not only capable of repeating them but probably should, it's Johnson.

He had 44 more points than the second-best fantasy receiver a season ago, Wes Welker. And while it's safe to suggest he'll finish with less than the whopping 1,681 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns he compiled last season, it's totally possible he could best those marks, Madden curse and all.

There is one truly elite wide receiver in fantasy football, and Johnson will prove in 2012 that it isn't close.

Ultimate Bang for the Buck: Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans

I considered a slew of good values for this list, including Doug Martin (ADP 68.7), Jay Cutler (99.7), Brandon Lloyd (52.1), Michael Vick (37.8) and Eric Decker (63.8), among others.

But with an ADP of 137.5 in ESPN snake drafts, Locker was simply too intriguing to pass up here.

Yes, he's a long-shot to achieve fantasy relevance this season. But tell me, did you see Newton, Cruz or Gronkowski coming a year ago? 

Here's the caveat—I highly doubt Locker will achieve that level of success. But I do think he has the talent and athleticism to pass and run his way into the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks by the end of the season. And if you get a starting quarterback in the 14th round, you'll take it.

Don't sleep on Locker. He's my pick to come out of left field and surprise folks this season

2012 Most Valuable Fantasy Player: Calvin Johnson

He'll probably finish top-11 in fantasy points like he did last season. He'll be heads-and-shoulders above any other player at his position. He isn't amazing bang for the buck—he'll take a first-round pick to acquire—but he's worth that high a selection.

Megatron will be the MVFP in 2012.

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