Fantasy Football 2012 Cheatsheet: Overvalued Players to Avoid in Your Draft

Good players are drafted like great players. Guys who suddenly had breakout seasons are drafted as high as players who have consistently performed over the years. Heck, even rookies get romanticized.

When it comes to fantasy football, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. And very often, a whole lot of beholders overvalue players in fantasy drafts.

So who are the players this year who will cost far too much to be worth drafting? Which guys might help your team but not enough to justify the rounds they are being drafted in?

Using ESPN's Average Draft Position, let's take a look at a few players who should be too pricey for your tastes.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

ADP: 14.7 

Why He's Going So High

He had the best season a tight end has ever had, setting records for receiving yards (1,327) and touchdowns (18) while catching 90 passes. Remarkably, only one receiver (Calvin Johnson) finished with more fantasy points than Gronk.  

Why You Should Stay Away

Are you really going to draft a tight end with a second-round pick? And more importantly, are you really going to bank on the fact that Gronk will repeat his legendary season?

Both answers should be no, by the way. You shouldn't be bothering with tight ends before the fourth round at the very highest, and keep in mind that the Patriots still have Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker and now Brandon Lloyd. In other words, the ball will be spread around.

Gronk should still put up big numbers, but drafting him and expecting he'll replicate his 2011 season is a mistake.

Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints

ADP: 21.9

Why He's Going So High

Only Gronk was more dangerous than Graham at the tight-end position last year. His 99 receptions for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns was shocking and a revelation for the Saints offense.  

Why You Should Stay Away

While I think Graham will remain a primary option for Drew Brees, I think it's too pricey to select him in the third round. Like Gronk, banking on another epic season is dangerous, as well.

Without question, he should be the second tight end off the board. But for heaven's sake, don't draft him in the third round.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks

ADP: 19.2 

Why He's Going So High

Because there are a ton of question marks at the running-back position, for one.

But Lynch was an absolute beast down the stretch last season, as well, finishing with double-digit fantasy points in eight of the last nine weeks and running for over 100 yards in six of the last nine weeks. He finished as the fifth-best fantasy back in 2011. 

Why You Should Stay Away

Anybody know where Lynch was in 2009 or 2010? 

I didn't think so.

While Lynch is attractive in the fact that he's the clear starter in Seattle, he's risky given the up-and-down nature his career has taken. If you're convinced he'll be the player he was down the stretch last season, by all means, use a second-round pick on him.

If not, wait until the fourth or fifth round, and hope he's there. I think he's good for about 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns this season.

But I'm not drafting that production in the second round, that's for sure.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 21.7 

Why He's Going So High

Over five games in a six-week run last season, Murray was brilliant. He blew up in a big way against the St. Louis Rams in Week 7, rushing for 253 yards and a touchdown. Despite starting just seven games last year, Murray finished with 897 rushing yards and 183 receiving yards. 

Why You Should Stay Away

Well for one, he has just seven career starts and two career touchdowns. So there's that.

But he also has a history of injuries, including the broken ankle that ended his season in Week 14 last year. And to get him, you're probably going to need to go into the late second or early third round to make it happen. 

He could be worth it, of course. He has a lot of talent and should be the top option in the backfield for the Cowboys. So if you don't mind cringing every time he takes a big hit, go ahead and roll the dice on Murray.

At his cost, I'll pass.

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