Fantasy Football: Using Average Draft Position Rankings to Pick from No. 4 Slot

For the year-round thrill ride that is fantasy football, here's a dry run of draft expectations when holding the No. 4 slot in 12-team leagues (standard scoring), working exclusively off MockDraftCentral.com's current Average Draft Position (ADP) rankings (subscription required).

Today's installment of "It's All About The Slot" might have been the most difficult to navigate of the spring and summer.

As you'll see down the list, the opportunity to acquire three top-five wideouts in the first 52 picks surprisingly trumped any early plans to load up on running backs. And fantasy owners should hope for such a scenario in at least one draft come August...provided they crave value, value, value at every turn.

Round 1, Pick 4 overall: Motive—Best overall player

1st option: QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2nd option: RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
3rd option: WR Calvin Johnson, Lions

Round 2, Pick 21 overall: Motive—Best player available

1st option: WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
2nd option: TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
3rd option: RB Fred Jackson, Bills

Round 3, Pick 28 overall: Motive—Best player available, preferably tailback

1st option: RB Fred Jackson, Bills
2nd option: RB Steven Jackson, Rams
3rd option: WR Andre Johnson, Texans

Round 4, Pick 45 overall: Motive—Best receiver or running back

1st option: WR Roddy White, Falcons
2nd option: WR Wes Welker, Patriots
3rd option: WR Mike Wallace, Steelers

Round 5, Pick 52 overall: Motive—Best wide receiver or tailback available

1st option: WR Mike Wallace, Steelers
2nd option: RB Roy Helu, Redskins
3rd option: WR Jordy Nelson, Packers

Round 6, Pick 69 overall: Motive—Best running back available

1st option: RB Stevan Ridley, Patriots
2nd option: RB DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
3rd option: TE Vernon Davis, 49ers

Round 7, Pick 76 overall: Motive—Best high-end talent

1st option: TE Jermichael Finley, Packers
2nd option: WR Malcom Floyd, Chargers
3rd option: TE Kenny Britt, Titans (now option #3 after recent DUI arrest)

Round 8, Pick 93 overall: Motive—Best running back or receiver available

1st option: RB Toby Gerhart, Vikings
2nd option: WR Reggie Wayne, Colts
3rd option: TE Brandon Pettigrew, Lions

Round 9, Pick 100 overall: Motive—Best tailback or receiver available

1st option: RB Daniel Thomas, Dolphins
2nd option: WR Nate Washington, Titans
3rd option: RB Ryan Williams, Cardinals

Round 10, Pick 117 overall: Motive—Best player available, preferably tailback

1st option: RB Mikel Leshoure, Lions
2nd option: RB Tim Hightower, Redskins
3rd option: WR Laurent Robinson, Jaguars

Round 11, Pick 124: Motive—Best receiver tight end available

1st option: WR Laurent Robinson, Jaguars
2nd option: WR Titus Young, Lions
3rd option: TE Dustin Keller, Jets

Round 12, Pick 141: Motive—Best defense available

1st option: D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers
2nd option: D/ST Green Bay Packers
3rd option: D/ST Baltimore Ravens

Round 13, Pick 148: Motive—Best quarterback available

1st option: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
2nd option: QB Mark Sanchez, Jets
3rd option: QB Andy Dalton, Bengals

Round 14, Pick 165: Motive—Best kicker available

1st option: PK Rob Bironas, Titans
2nd option: PK Matt Prater, Broncos
3rd option: PK Randy Bullock, Texans

Round 15, Pick 172: Motive—Best upside tight end available

1st option: TE Kyle Rudoloph, Vikings
2nd option: TE Dallas Clark, Buccaneers
3rd option: TE Joel Dreessen, Broncos

Round 16, Pick 189: Motive—Best wide receiver available

1st option: WR Jerome Simpson, Vikings
2nd option: WR Donald Jones, Bills
3rd option: WR Danario Alexander, Rams

Breakdown

• Here's another reason to draft QB Aaron Rodgers, the likely overall points champion by season's end, with the No. 4 pick: The Packers only share a Week 10 bye with the Redskins, Browns and Cardinals, meaning fantasy owners should have few restrictions when seeking a backup quarterback sometime in Rounds 12, 13, 14 or even 15.
  
  
• It was hardly my intention to land Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White and Mike Wallace in the first four picks. Looking at my Tiers Of A Clown selections from the other day, all three receivers are reasonable locks for a minimum of 1,150 total yards and/or nine touchdowns. I sincerely doubt any other trio could touch that type of elite production.
  
  
• On the flip side, with every action...there is a reaction. By sticking to the value chart in the first five rounds (one QB, three receivers), I was then put in the highly uncomfortable position of scrambling to fill the depth chart at running back. Asking Stevan Ridley (454 total yards, 1 TD in 2011) to serve as a RB2 seems like a doomed mission; but then again, Ridley will likely garner the first shot to replace BenJarvus Green-Ellis as New England's feature back.
  
  
• Most people forget that Daniel Thomas tallied 249 total yards and one touchdown in his first two pro games last year (Week 2 vs. Houston, Week 3 at Cleveland)—a fantastic two-outing audition that, at the time, signaled the end of Reggie Bush's brief tenure as Miami's franchise back.
  
  
• It would have been a crime to pass on Mike Wallace in Round 5...and his absurd ADP of 53.
  
  
• Trent Richardson's rise up the ADP rankings is nothing short of amazing...and baffling. Yes, he's a supremely talented back, possibly in the class of Adrian Peterson (circa 2007); but there's no legitimate reason for Richardson (2,017 total yards, 24 TDs last year with Alabama) going from 62 to 16 to 9 to 6 in a month's time. Bottom line: There's a zero-percent chance that I would ever take a Round 2 or 3 plunge for a rookie in 12-team non-keeper leagues; history has shown there are more palatable veteran options within the first 30 picks.
  
  
• Speaking of Peterson, I hope and pray that he'll be ready for Week 1 action; but in the meantime, Toby Gerhart is an ideal "insurance" buy at No. 93 overall. Even if AP (or AD) plays in the first six games—and avoids the dreaded preseason PUP list—I love Gerhart's odds of fielding per-game averages of 80 total yards and 0.5 touchdowns in that span.
  
  
• Whichever owner lands the Steelers defense/special teams should rejoice in the following: Pittsburgh only shares a Week 4 bye week with Indy, meaning that fantasy owners will have 30 kicking options to ponder in the latter rounds. As a personal rule, I never roster kickers and D/STs with the same bye.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.