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Germany vs. Italy Predictions: Breakdown of Colossal Semifinal Match

John RozumJun 26, 2012

With a chance to play in the 2012 Euros final on the line, Germany vs. Italy is a matchup of opposites.

Germany field a dynamic offense that can consistently move the ball well, and Italy remain impenetrable on defense. Not surprising, Italy's forte is low-scoring affairs while the Germans prefer to work at a fast pace.

Here, let's break down this colossal matchup of polar opposites for Thursday in Warsaw.

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Mario Gomez vs. Italy Defense

On a roll right now, Mario Gomez has scored three goals with one assist for the Germans. A tough player to isolate one-on-one, Gomez will have to get multiple defenders if the Italians want to completely blanket his production.

However, that will then leave Italy more vulnerable elsewhere, and especially so since Christian Maggio is out according to the Associated Press via Sports Illustrated.

Still, expect Italy to occasionally send more than one defender at Gomez in the hopes of forcing multiple turnovers. Doing so can frustrate Gomez and the Germans, who would rather outscore than play defense. Contrarily, anticipate Germany to be attacking full-go from the beginning.

Goalkeeper Duel

A legendary goalkeeper in Gianluigi Buffon versus the younger Manuel Neuer, who has a supreme amount of potential, will be a great duel to see.

Buffon and the Italians have allowed just two goals during the Euros and look to slow down the explosive German offense. Well, that's easier said than done, as Germany have scored nine goals in four games.

Nonetheless, we can't discount the talent and experience Buffon brings. As for Neuer, he and the German defense have been solid in allowing only four goals during the tournament.

Italy's offense isn't a major threat to keep pace with Germany's, so it's reasonable to suspect that Neuer will play a near flawless game.

Length will Determine Victor

The Germans want to push the pace while Italy will look to play defense and control the ball.

As the game progresses, Italy's best hope comes from a longer contest. Germany, though potent, can get into a funk at times and really play below its potential. Unfortunately for Italy, we have yet to see that from the Germans during the Euros this year.

To that end, don't anticipate Germany slowing down with their possessions. An early score will make a significant difference, because Italy will gain confidence if the game remains tied throughout. For two teams with opposing philosophies, offensive efficiency is needed to control the tempo.

Prediction

The popular matchup will be Germany's offense versus Italy's defense. But the key matchup is Germany's defense versus Italy's offense.

Each country's strength is basically a wash, so exposing the other's weakness will be the deciding factor. Germany has a solid keeper in Neuer, but Buffon is arguably the greatest ever. Both will have to be on top of their game, because even with scoring opportunities being scarce, that leaves little room for error.

And with scarce scoring opportunities, the better and more effective offense has the slight edge.

Germany 1, Italy 0

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