Phillies Third Place, Baseball Prospectus Says

Baseball Prospectus debuted their projected standings for the upcoming 2009 baseball season yesterday, and it was somewhat puzzling to me. According to their mathematical formulas, the Phillies will go 88-74, falling even with the Atlanta Braves (but the Phillies are listed as third place, maybe due to alphabetical ordering?). The New York Mets are predicted to be 93-69.

Elsewhere, they predict the Red Sox will lead all of baseball with a 98-64 record, one game better than the Yankees and six games better than the Tampa Bay Rays. The Chicago Cubs take the top record in the National League at 95-67.

I honestly think that the 2009 Phillies are going to be a better team than the 2008 squad.

Removing Adam Eaton from the rotation completely and getting a full year out of Joe Blanton should make a difference of a couple games alone. What if Brett Myers comes back to his work with his post-minor league stint ability? That should shake off a few bad losses as well. The offense is still going to be explosive even without Pat Burrell in the lineup. Cole Hamels is a stud, and Jamie Moyer is steady.

Oh, yes. The bullpen is also quite good.

I do not see the Phillies falling back a lot from their 2008 season. It will be a tough season, though, as they are now the team that everybody will want a piece of.

One of the hardest things to do in team sports is win a championship. The only thing harder may be to repeat as a champion. I don't expect the Phillies to run through 2009 en route to hoisting another trophy, but I don't see how they can fall to third place in the NL East.

Maybe the Mets finish in first. Maybe the Phillies have to play the Wild Card role.

But the Phillies will not be a third place team. Besides, all we really need is the Jimmy Rollins prediction, which has run its course.