Football Transfers 2012: Ranking 47 of the Smartest Buys by Statistical Analysis

It is that time of the year again when football clubs in Europe look to strengthen their squads. Some do it through extortionate sums of money while others do it through the money they get by selling their most expensive assets. 

With the advent of "financial fair play" in European Club football, spending on players will be taken that much more seriously. Each extra pound shelled out will be looked at with that much more scrutiny. Balancing the books will finally become a priority for all clubs who wish to participate in top leagues and European competitions.

Thus, why don't we take a look at 47 of the smartest buys this summer. Those that will give their purchasers each pound's worth that will be spent on them. Please note that some of these maybe tying down deals as we speak if they have not already.

Ranking 47 footballers is no walk in the park.

Ranking through opinion and facts is not only tedious, it is liable to uncertainty. Therefore we will take the aid of statistics. These statistics, combined with the manager's opinion of a player fitting in with the system, may well be all that is required to recruit great and cheap attacking footballers that make vital contributions.

Before we start ranking, I would like to make certain things clear:

1) The factors taken into consideration are age, previous season goals and assists, league, supposed price and number of appearances.

2) The prices have been extrapolated from Transfer Markt (2nd June 2012, currency does not matter as it it will be the same for every player). The stats have been taken from ESPN's Soccernet.

3) No player over the age of 25 or 15 million pounds has been considered.

4) If a player is younger, he scores more points on account of having potential to be developed and time on his hands. For example, a player aged 20 has an age factor of 2.5 while a player aged 25 has the age factor of two.

5) Points for a goal and an assist are in the ratio of 5:3. One point for a goal and 0.6 point for an assist.

6) Weightage of start to sub is in the ratio 5:2. One point for a start and 0.4 point for a substitute appearance.

7) Players with more appearances score more points on basis of consistency. Players that have total appearances (starts plus subs) have an appearance factor of one. Players that have appearances between 10 and 15 have an appearance factor of 0.86. 

8) The league strength is adjudged by UEFA Coefficients. England is a No. 1 while Scotland is at No. 14 out of the leagues that were considered. Thus the English league has a league factor of 4.4, while the Scottish league has a league factor of 3. This means that each goal scored in the English league has been taken equivalent to approximately 1.5 goals in the Scottish league.

Ultimately, the formula used is : 

(((league factor) x (goals + 0.6 x assists) x (age factor)) / ((starts + 0.4 x subs) x (price))) x (appearance factor)

47. Andre Ayew

Andre Ayew had eight goals and zero assists in 23 starts and three substitute appearances. He is 22 years old and his mean price taken is 13.25 million (again, currency does not matter as it it will be the same for every player). His age factor is 2.3, league factor is 3.9 and appearance factor is 0.95.

Name: Andre Ayew

Smart Rank: 47

League: French

Rating: 0.212606

46. Kevin Gameiro

Kevin Gameiro had 11 goals and two assists in 27 starts and seven substitute appearances. He is 25 years old and his mean price taken is 14 million. His age factor is two, league factor is 3.9 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Kevin Gameiro

Smart Rank: 46

League: French

Rating: 0.22353

45. Scott Sinclair

Scott Sinclair had eight goals and four assists in 35 starts and three substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 8.45 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 4.4 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Scott Sinclair

Smart Rank: 45

League: English

Rating: 0.329112

44. Gaston Ramirez

Gaston Ramirez had eight goals and four assists in 28 starts and five substitute appearances. He is 21 years old and his mean price taken is 9.4 million. His age factor is 2.4, league factor is 4.1 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Gaston Ramirez

Smart Rank: 44

League: Italian

Rating: 0.355636

43. Danny Welbeck

Danny Welbeck had nine goals and four assists in 23 starts and seven substitute appearances. He is 21 years old and his mean price taken is 12.25 million. His age factor is 2.4, league factor is 4.4 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Danny Welbeck

Smart Rank: 43

League: English

Rating: 0.373284

42. Sebastian Giovinco

Sebastian Giovinco had 15 goals and 11 assists in 36 starts and zero substitute appearances. He is 25 years old and his mean price taken is 11.75 million. His age factor is two, league factor is 4.1 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Sebastian Giovinco

Smart Rank: 42

League: Italian

Rating: 0.418723

41. Nolan Roux

Nolan Roux had nine goals and two assists in 28 starts and seven substitute appearances. He is 24 years old and his mean price taken is 5.65 million. His age factor is 2.1, league factor is 3.9 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Nolan Roux

Smart Rank: 41

League: French

Rating: 0.480048

40. Jose Salomon Rondon

Jose Salomon Rondon had 11 goals and four assists in 29 starts and eight substitute appearances. He is 22 years old and his mean price taken is 8.45 million. His age factor is 2.3, league factor is 4.3 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Jose Salomon Rondon

Smart Rank: 40

League: Spanish

Rating: 0.487067

39. Fabio Borini

Fabio Borini had nine goals and zero assists in 20 starts and four substitute appearances. He is 21 years old and his mean price taken is 7.5 million. His age factor is 2.4, league factor is 4.1 and appearance factor is 0.95.

Name: Fabio Borini

Smart Rank: 39

League: Italian

Rating: 0.519333

38. Robert Lewandowski

Robert Lewandowski had 22 goals and eight assists in 34 starts and zero substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 14 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 4.2 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Robert Lewandowski

Smart Rank: 38

League: German

Rating: 0.520235

37. Nicklas Bendtner

Nicklas Bendtner had eight goals and five assists in 25 starts and three substitute appearances. He is 24 years old and his mean price taken is 7.05 million. His age factor is 2.1, league factor is 4.4 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Nicklas Bendtner

Smart Rank: 37

League: English

Rating: 0.539263

36. Marco Ruben

Marco Ruben had nine goals and two assists in 26 starts and five substitute appearances. He is 25 years old and his mean price taken is 5.65 million. His age factor is two, league factor is 4.3 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Marco Ruben

Smart Rank: 36

League: Spanish

Rating: 0.543998

35. Brown Ideye

Brown Ideye had 15 goals and six assists in 32 starts and two substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 8.45 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 3.7 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Brown Ideye

Smart Rank: 35

League: Ukraine

Rating: 0.546269

34. Dries Mertens

Dries Mertens had 20 goals and zero assists in 23 starts and zero substitute appearances. He is 25 years old and his mean price taken is 11.25 million. His age factor is two, league factor is 3.8 and appearance factor is 0.95.

Name: Dries Mertens

Smart Rank: 34

League: Dutch

Rating: 0.558068

33. Anthony Mounier

Anthony Mounier had eight goals and three assists in 25 starts and four substitute appearances. He is 24 years old and his mean price taken is 5.15 million. His age factor is 2.1, league factor is 3.9 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Anthony Mounier

Smart Rank: 33

League: French

Rating: 0.574179

32. James Rodriguez

James Rodriguez had 13 goals and zero assists in 14 starts and six substitute appearances. He is 20 years old and his mean price taken is 12.25 million. His age factor is 2.5, league factor is four and appearance factor is 0.91.

Name: James Rodriguez

Smart Rank: 32

League: Portuguese

Rating: 0.58885

31. Steven Fletcher

Steven Fletcher had 12 goals and two assists in 26 starts and six substitute appearances. He is 25 years old and his mean price taken is 6.6 million. His age factor is two, league factor is 4.4 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Steven Fletcher

Smart Rank: 31

League: English

Rating: 0.607324

30. Nolito

Nolito had 11 goals and zero assists in 13 starts and 11 substitute appearances. He is 25 years old and his mean price taken is 7.5 million. His age factor is two, league factor is four and appearance factor is 0.91.

Name: Nolito

Smart Rank: 30

League: Portuguese

Rating: 0.61364

29. Younes Belhanda

Younes Belhanda had 12 goals and four assists in 26 starts and two substitute appearances. He is 22 years old and his mean price taken is 7.5 million. His age factor is 2.3, league factor is 3.9 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Younes Belhanda

Smart Rank: 29

League: French

Rating: 0.629774

28. Olivier Giroud

Olivier Giroud had 21 goals and nine assists in 36 starts and zero substitute appearances. He is 25 years old and his mean price taken is 8.95 million. His age factor is two, league factor is 3.9 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Olivier Giroud

Smart Rank: 28

League: French

Rating: 0.639106

27. Ola Toivonen

Ola Toivonen had 18 goals and zero assists in 27 starts and zero substitute appearances. He is 25 years old and his mean price taken is 7.5 million. His age factor is two, league factor is 3.8 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Ola Toivonen

Smart Rank: 27

League: Dutch

Rating: 0.662044

26. Martin Harnik

Martin Harnik had 17 goals and four assists in 33 starts and one substitute appearances. He is 24 years old and his mean price taken is 7.5 million. His age factor is 2.1, league factor is 4.2 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Martin Harnik

Smart Rank: 26

League: German

Rating: 0.683066

25. Tim Matavz

Tim Matavz had 14 goals and zero assists in 22 starts and four substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 6.6 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 3.8 and appearance factor is 0.95.

Name: Tim Matavz

Smart Rank: 25

League: Dutch

Rating: 0.713842

24. Miralem Sulejmani

Miralem Sulejmani had 10 goals and zero assists in 15 starts and one substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 6.6 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 3.8 and appearance factor is 0.91.

Name: Miralem Sulejmani

Smart Rank: 24

League: Dutch

Rating: 0.748485

23. Alain Traore

Alain Traore had nine goals and four assists in 26 starts and one substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 4.7 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 3.9 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Alain Traore

Smart Rank: 23

League: French

Rating: 0.772532

22. Ricky Van Wolfswinkel

Ricky Van Wolfswinkel had 14 goals and zero assists in 15 starts and four substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 8.45 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is four and appearance factor is 0.91.

Name: Ricky Van Wolfswinkel

Smart Rank: 22

League: Portuguese

Rating: 0.799259

21. Wilfried Bony

Wilfried Bony had 17 goals and seven assists in 28 starts and two substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 7.5 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 3.8 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Wilfried Bony

Smart Rank: 21

League: Dutch

Rating: 0.804108

20. Carlos Vela

Carlos Vela had 12 goals and seven assists in 28 starts and seven substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 5.65 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 4.3 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Carlos Vela

Smart Rank: 20

League: Spanish

Rating: 0.880657

19. Raul Garcia

Raul Garcia had 11 goals and eight assists in 30 starts and three substitute appearances. He is 25 years old and his mean price taken is 4.7 million. His age factor is two, league factor is 4.3 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Raul Garcia

Smart Rank: 19

League: Spanish

Rating: 0.926623

18. Mattia Destro

Mattia Destro had 12 goals and two assists in 27 starts and four substitute appearances. He is 21 years old and his mean price taken is 4.25 million. His age factor is 2.4, league factor is 4.1 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Mattia Destro

Smart Rank: 18

League: Italian

Rating: 1.047225

17. Isaac Promise

Isaac Promise had 11 goals and zero assists in 31 starts and zero substitute appearances. He is 24 years old and his mean price taken is 2.45 million. His age factor is 2.1, league factor is 3.5 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Isaac Promise

Smart Rank: 17

League: Turkish

Rating: 1.064516

16. Diego Costa

Diego Costa had 10 goals and four assists in 15 starts and one substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 6.1 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 4.3 and appearance factor is 0.91.

Name: Diego Costa

Smart Rank: 16

League: Spanish

Rating: 1.136328

15. Tomas Pekhart

Tomas Pekhart had nine goals and three assists in 29 starts and two substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 2.8 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 4.2 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Tomas Pekhart

Smart Rank: 15

League: German

Rating: 1.172054

14. Luuk De Jong

Luuk De Jong had 25 goals and zero assists in 24 starts and zero substitute appearances. He is 21 years old and his mean price taken is 7.5 million. His age factor is 2.4, league factor is 3.8 and appearance factor is 0.95.

Name: Luuk De Jong

Smart Rank: 14

League: Dutch

Rating: 1.203333

13. Siem De Jong

Siem De Jong had 13 goals and zero assists in 17 starts and zero substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 4.7 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 3.8 and appearance factor is 0.91.

Name: Siem De Jong

Smart Rank: 13

League: Dutch

Rating: 1.237782

12. Imanol Agirretxe

Imanol Agirretxe had 10 goals and four assists in 27 starts and nine substitute appearances. He is 25 years old and his mean price taken is 2.8 million. His age factor is two, league factor is 4.3 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Imanol Agirretxe

Smart Rank: 12

League: Spanish

Rating: 1.244631

11. Gary Hooper

Gary Hooper had 24 goals and eight assists in 34 starts and three substitute appearances. He is 24 years old and his mean price taken is 4.25 million. His age factor is 2.1, league factor is 3.1 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Gary Hooper

Smart Rank: 11

League: Scottish

Rating: 1.253262

10. Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang had 16 goals and seven assists in 36 starts and zero substitute appearances. He is 22 years old and his mean price taken is 3.75 million. His age factor is 2.3, league factor is 3.9 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

Smart Rank: 10

League: French

Rating: 1.342178

9. Bas Dost

Bas Dost had 32 goals and zero assists in 25 starts and zero substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 7.5 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 3.8 and appearance factor is 0.95.

Name: Bas Dost

Smart Rank: 9

League: Dutch

Rating: 1.355435

8. Christian Stuani

Christian Stuani had nine goals and three assists in 24 starts and eight substitute appearances. He is 25 years old and his mean price taken is 2.35 million. His age factor is two, league factor is 4.3 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Christian Stuani

Smart Rank: 8

League: Spanish

Rating: 1.424005

7. John Guidetti

John Guidetti had 18 goals and zero assists in 15 starts and two substitute appearances. He is 20 years old and his mean price taken is 6.6 million. His age factor is 2.5, league factor is 3.8 and appearance factor is 0.91.

Name: John Guidetti

Smart Rank: 7

League: Dutch

Rating: 1.492232

6. Anthony Stokes

Anthony Stokes had 12 goals and 10 assists in 25 starts and nine substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 2.8 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 3.1 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Anthony Stokes

Smart Rank: 6

League: Scottish

Rating: 1.502308

5. Jozy Altidore

Jozy Altidore had 15 goals and zero assists in 23 starts and eight substitute appearances. He is 22 years old and his mean price taken is 2.8 million. His age factor is 2.3, league factor is 3.8 and appearance factor is 0.98.

Name: Jozy Altidore

Smart Rank: 5

League: Dutch

Rating: 1.751336

4. Yannick Sagbo

Yannick Sagbo had 10 goals and four assists in 30 starts and three substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 1.625 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 3.9 and appearance factor is one.

Name: Yannick Sagbo

Smart Rank: 4

League: French

Rating: 2.098462

3. Daniel Didavi

Daniel Didavi had nine goals and two assists in 18 starts and five substitute appearances. He is 22 years old and his mean price taken is 1.4 million. His age factor is 2.3, league factor is 4.2 and appearance factor is 0.91.

Name: Daniel Didavi

Smart Rank: 3

League: German

Rating: 3.20229

2. Glynor Plet

Glynor Plet had 12 goals and zero assists in 11 starts and 14 substitute appearances. He is 25 years old and his mean price taken is 1.2 million. His age factor is two, league factor is 3.8 and appearance factor is 0.91.

Name: Glynor Plet

Smart Rank: 2

League: Dutch

Rating: 4.166265

1. Sone Aluko

Sone Aluko had 11 goals and three assists in 18 starts and two substitute appearances. He is 23 years old and his mean price taken is 0.7 million. His age factor is 2.2, league factor is 3.1 and appearance factor is 0.91.

Name: Sone Aluko

Smart Rank: 1

League: Scottish

Rating: 6.036426

Conclusion

I love to play with numbers, hence my affiliation with statistics. Although I agree that buying a player should not be done solely based on statistics, I do believe there is a degree of importance that should be given to such numbers and figures. 

FSG, the owners of Liverpool Football Club, supposedly used the Moneyball approach last season and ended up with the metaphorical egg on their faces. I actually liked their idea, but in terms of execution they got it horribly wrong. Statistics also will aid you only if you use them wisely. I just didn't get and still have not got what model of "rocket-science" approach Damien Comolli actually used.

I have to back my words and will do so quite willfully. Let us look at four of Liverpool's buys last season. Before moving ahead, I will again clarify some things. Firstly, this last slide has been made right at the end, so that you know there has been no intentional manipulation to show that the model FSG and Comolli used were far from impressive. Besides this, the prices that I am taking are 60 percent of what Liverpool paid to adjust to Transfermarkt's lower pricing than actual market values. 

Here are the results based on my model:

1) Stewart Downing gets a rating of 0.194526 and comes in at No. 48

2) Charlie Adam gets a rating of 0.895349 and comes in at No. 19

3) Andy Carroll gets a rating of 0.305067 and comes in at No. 45

4) Jordan Henderson gets a rating of 0.160541 and comes in at No. 49

It is clear that only Adam was a smart buy. The rest were ordinary buys when Liverpool had to get it right in the transfer market. The next time you use statistics, you will think before betting your money on it. 

I would finally take an opportunity to mention that this list did not contain your Eden Hazards, Marko Marins, Hulks or Falcaos. It includes some very good players and some rough diamonds that can be gambled with at meagre sums of money. It is an eye-opener for all fans who think that their team will bite dust without Champions League football. There are a lot of players still to be had even without Champions League to lure them. Just look at Newcastle. You just got to have an eye for them and perhaps the aid of a such a statistical model.