2012 MLB Projections: Astros Making the Safe Move by Drafting Mark Appel

The Houston Astros are reportedly planning on drafting Stanford pitcher Mark Appel with the first overall pick, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.

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According to source the Houston Astros are expected to select Stanford RHP Mark Appel with the first over all selection in tomorrows draft.

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) June 3, 2012"

This is a smart move by the Astros, who could have taken a number of different routes here.

Houston's top options also included outfielder Byron Buxton, shortstop Carlos Correa and pitchers Lucas Giolito and Kevin Gausman.

While those players may have a higher ceiling than Appel (particularly Buxton and Correa), the right-hander from Stanford is more of a "sure-thing" than anybody else.

His fastball clocks in the mid-to-high 90s, and he's got a solid repertoire of pitches. His slider is just nasty and, although it could use some work, his changeup is passable. He also has an ideal frame for a No. 1 pitcher, measuring in at 6'5", 215 pounds.

With three years of playing at an elite college program, Appel is also much more MLB-ready than high school pitchers like Giolito and Max Fried. He's already pitched on some of college baseball's biggest stages, and he should spend relatively little time in the Astros farm system.

With his pedigree and skill level, there is virtually no way that Appel fails as an MLB starter. The best-case scenario is that he turns into an ace, while the worst case is he becomes a solid No. 3 or No. 4 option in the rotation.

His potential may not be as sexy as Buxton's or Correa's, but the Astros can't afford to gamble.

What's that old saying? Better safe than sorry?

The Astros should heed those words and make the safe pick in Appel.