Kentucky Derby Predictions 2012: Top Horses That Will Falter at Churchill Downs

Undefeated three-year-old colt Gemologist isn't the odds-on favorite to win the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby, but he has the best chance for success.

Breaking from the 15th post, Gemologist will be the first horse in the second gate, giving him ample room to maneuver and allowing him to set up where he wants.

Trinniberg, the expected pacesetter, breaks from the 9th post. Gemologist will be well clear of the pace. He'll work from the back, pick his spots and make his move when the time comes.

He's the one horse that has to be watched carefully.

As for the other big names, here's a few reasons why they'll falter.

Dullahan 

A current 8-1 ride, Dullahan is back at a track where he's yet to taste victory. He's sandwiched in between Bodemeister and Union Rags in the starting gate, and all three are inside of Trinniberg.

Expect his numbers to go down by the time race day rolls around, but don't expect him to live up to the billing. 

Take Charge Indy

Jockeyed by Calvin Borel, Take Charge Indy is getting a lot of love as the race nears. The three-time Derby-winning jockey loves to work close to the rail and Take Charge Indy drew the No. 3 post.

He's inside the pacesetter and will have to be careful, but if any jockey can handle it, it is Borel.

This race has a lot going on, though, and it wouldn't be surprising at all if he wasn't near the money when all is said and done. There are a number of more talented closers in this field. 

Daddy Nose Best

Riding just to the outside of Trinniberg is going to cause problems for Daddy Nose Best. The pace-setting horse is likely going to fire out like a cannonball and others around will chase him. 

If Garrett Gomez can keep him composed, he might be able to survive it, but this is the Derby we're talking about.