Kentucky Derby 2012 Horses: Why This Is Year to Bet on Long Shots

Some people make it a habit to bet on long shots in horse races. At the 2012 Kentucky Derby, it may actually prove to be a wise decision.

This year's 20-horse field is wide open. You have six legitimate contenders, and even they aren't safe. My prime contenders are Union Rags, Bodemeister, Gemologist, Creative Cause, Dullahan and Take Charge Indy.

Deciding between those six, not to mention taking into account the rest of the field, has proven to be difficult.

Wednesday's post position draw will be another determinant in who has the best chance of winning. With a 20-horse field, being cursed with the 1 stall could prove to be crippling. For example, if some of the favorites find themselves in stalls 1 through 3, their odds of winning go way down, in my opinion.

Of course, not choosing to bet at all in this year's race may be the best bet, given the sheer unpredictability of the race. However, let's be honest, that's not going to happen. Therefore, it may be wise to place a little money down on a long shot.

I'm not talking about simply a dark horse; I'm talking about finding another "Animal Kingdom" with good post position.

It may not be about making the safe decision this year. In fact, the bold and brave may come out on top while the "favorites" go down in flames. There is so much uncertainty in this year's race that it almost makes sense to make an odd pick. 

That's not to say pick a name out of the hat. However, if a horse does have good position, and you feel good about his recent performances and think he's primed for an upset, go for it.

This is the year to defy convention.