Kentucky Derby Odds: Favorites Not Worth the Betting Money
The 2012 Kentucky Derby is wide open. In other words, it is a prime race to pick a mid to long-shot and hit for a big payday.
The favorites in this all have serious question marks surrounding them, which makes their low odds a bad risk/reward proposition.
Check out the three favorites I'm most leery of.
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Union Rags, 9/2
At 9/2, Union Rags is the current co-favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. This is a fast and powerful horse, that has been impressive in his pre-race workouts.
However, these workouts aren't coming at the full one and a quarter mile that the race will be run. And this is where the problem is.
In a recent outing in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, he finished third. That is a one and one-eighth mile race. It is the longest race of his career, and it came against a field that is not as strong as the one that will be featured in this historic race.
Expect Rags to be a factor, but his lack of experience or success in longer races is an ominous sign.
Bodemeister, 9/2
Bodemeister is a speedy horse that has caught the betting public's attention after a strong win at the G1 Arkansas Derby.
However, this horse is severely untested. He has just four races under his belt, and only two stakes starts.
And none of those races came as a two-year-old. A horse that hasn't raced as a two-year-old has only won the Kentucky Derby once, and that happened in far distant past of 1882.
That is not a streak I want to tackle with my betting money.
Dullahan, 8/1
Dullahan's odds are bolstered by his fourth place finish in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the fact that his brother, Mine That Bird, won this race in 2009.
However, a close look at the fourth place finish does not point to good things for Dullahan in this race.
He finished a full five-lengths back of the three horses to place in the money at that race.
This is a horse that is more comfortable on turf-like surfaces. It is hard to fathom that he will be able to roll into this dirt race against elite horses and take the victory.
Check out the full odds as found on May 1 at KentuckyDerby.info.
| Alpha | 11/1 |
| Bodemeister | 9/2 |
| Creative Cause | 11/1 |
| Daddy Long Legs | 30/1 |
| Daddy Nose Best | 15/1 |
| Done Talking | 50/1 |
| Dullahan | 8/1 |
| El Padrino | 16/1 |
| Gemologist | 7/1 |
| Hansen | 14/1 |
| Hero of Order | 100/1 |
| I'll Have Another | 15/1 |
| Liaison | 40/1 |
| Mark Valeski | 23/1 |
| My Adonis | 40/1 |
| Opimizer | 60/1 |
| Prospective | 50/1 |
| Rousing Sermon | 40/1 |
| Sabercat | 35/1 |
| Take Charge Indy | 16/1 |
| Trinniberg | 45/1 |
| Union Rags | 9/2 |
| Went The Day Well | 18/1 |
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