Kentucky Derby 2012: Bodemeister Will Disappoint in Run for the Roses

Bodemeister is one of a handful of favorites heading into the 2012 Kentucky Derby. The three-year-old colt will disappoint trainer Bob Baffert in this year's Run for the Roses. 

Kentucky Derby horses face constant scrutiny in the days leading up to the race. Bodemeister's work on Sunday did not take any pressure off the horse and his jockey. Bodemeister ran five furlongs in an astounding 59.48 seconds. 

Times like that make it easy to pick Bodemeister to cross the finish line first in the 138th Kentucky Derby. This is why he won't...

History and Inexperience

Apollo is the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby without racing at age two. That happened in 1882. Bodemeister will try to buck that extremely long trend in this year's Run for the Roses. 

Bodemeister's inexperience could help his endurance in this year's race, but it could also hinder his jockey's ability to maneuver him. A horse and jockey must operate as one fluid machine at The Oaks, but Bodemeister's lack of seasoning will create a major hurdle in that area. 

The enormous Kentucky Derby stage could swallow up Bodemeister. He is not used to this much attention, and any skittishness could cost him the race. 

Inexperience also rings true with who will be riding Bodemeister in the Derby. Mike Smith rode the colt in his last victory, but Rafael Bejarano could be the jockey this time around. Chemistry/comfort could play a major role. 

Running the Race of His Life...Twice

Two weeks ago Bodemeister won the Grade I Arkansas Derby by 9 1/2 lengths. This was just his fourth career start. It couldn't have created higher expectations.

Considering Bodemeister's fluxing jockey situation, expectations are a tough thing to tackle. Bejarano will have to adjust to Bodemeister's unique gait and keep him moving toward the finish line against a more experienced field of horses. 

Every Bodemeister gallop is under a microscope right now. He will need a performance similar to his race at Oaklawn Park, but he will not deliver.