2012 NFL Draft: Breaking Down the Odds of Ryan Tannehill to the Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins need a franchise quarterback. With the No. 8 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft, they could potentially nab one in Ryan Tannehill.

It’s a known fact that the organization is on the hunt for a QB and has not had an elite player at the position since Dan Marino retired following the 1999 season.

The Dolphins were not able to trade up with St. Louis to get the No. 2 pick and the right to draft Robert Griffin III, they failed to lure Matt Flynn from Green Bay to South Beach and could not convince Peyton Manning to finish his career with the team.

Now the Fins have limited options to secure a new signal-caller in time for the 2012-13 season.

Many insiders and analysts believe that the franchise will call Tannehill’s name if he is available when they select on Thursday. However, recent reports out of Miami’s camp aren’t exactly aligning with conventional wisdom.

GM Jeff Ireland told CBS Sports’ Derek Harper that he has a good idea of who he wants to draft in the first round, but did not specify the Texas A&M quarterback.

"There are times you should go after a first-round QB, but you shouldn't be pressured into it," said Ireland.

On Tannehill’s meteoric rise this offseason and how it has changed his big board:

"A player's stock doesn't change too much after the season's over," said Ireland. "Very few change drastically."

Another reason why it’s widely thought that Ireland would go with Tannehill is because he was reportedly owner Stephen Ross’ choice.

Armando Salguero of The Miami Herald has sources refuting that claim. The team insider who he discussed the earlier report with says that Ross and Ireland have had no conversations on whom they should choose and the owner does not have any plans to.

There is also a wild-card reason as to why the Dolphins will not select the Aggies QB. He may not be there.

The Seattle Seahawks are apparently interested in trading up to No. 7 to snag him before Miami can get a chance, according to Peter King of Sports Illustrated.

That could just be a smoke-and-mirrors show to force Miami to make a panic move. It doesn’t make the most sense for a team that just inked Flynn to a three-year, $19.5 million contract to move up and select a QB, but crazier things have happened.

When all is said and done, Tannehill is a great prospect with a ton of upside and a chance to become a franchise quarterback for the Dolphins. If he were available at No. 8, it would be wise for them to take him when considering the other options.

As Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has said:

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“To get that franchise quarterback is pretty tough. They just don’t fall off the trees. If you can get a guy that you feel is a franchise quarterback, then you’ve got to make decisions in the best interest of your organization

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With Matt Moore currently penciled in as the No. 1 QB in Miami, the Dolphins need to make a bold decision and take Tannehill if he is there when they pick. 

The odds of another team making a move to jump ahead of them to the No. 7 spot or earlier are low and the risk vs. reward of taking Tannehill at No. 8 is worth it. Pencil the Fins in for a 75 percent chance to select the QB on Thursday.