Arkansas Derby 2012: Breaking Down Today's Favorites

Bob Baffert has to like his chances heading into today’s Arkansas Derby. With a $1 million dollar prize on the line, the odds makers have his two horses, Bodemeister and Secret Circle, as the smart money in today’s action. It’s clear that these are frontrunners for today’s race, but there are a few more in the mix that could spoil Baffert's day. 

Secret Circle: 5/2

This horse is getting the bulk of the action thanks in part to Bob Baffert himself. The world-class conditioner has had a string of hot horses over the last three years. According to Bloodsport.com, Secret Circle won his last race on March 17 by almost a full length. A hot trainer and a hot horse make for a good bet. 

Bodemeister: 9/5

Bodemeister presents a lot in terms of upside but not a lot in terms of results. The horse has been raced on occasion but doesn’t have nearly the track record that Secret Circle does. With that said there is something to be noted about the unknown and with a close second place finish at the San Felipe Stakes and one win under his belt, putting money on this horse isn’t necessarily a bad investment. 

Isn’t He Clever 6/1

If any horse his going to challenge the two Baffert horses that are the darlings of the Arkansas Derby, it’s Isn’t He Clever. 

Bloodhorse.com makes a very strong case for Isn’t He Clever going over at the Derby. 

"

I’m staying with Isn’t He Clever, who I picked in the Sunland Derby. He ran huge that day, but was caught late by Daddy Nose Best in the late stages. He’s tactical and should be able to sit a good trip just off the leaders. He already has a good nine-furlong test under his belt and has a sharp work since that last race.

"

Stat: 10/1

Stat has a legit shot to win the derby, so there is no reason to count him out. Though he hasn’t raced as impressively as Secret Circle or Isn’t He Clever, he does have quite a track record. In his four previous races, he’s managed two wins and a second place finish. Now the one thing working against stat is this is easily the longest track he’s had to compete on, but the only other race he’s done that has come this close is the Kee ALwOC, where he won. The distance could hinder him, or this Triple Crown hopeful just might bring home a much needed win before the derby.