Fantasy Baseball 2012: The Michael Pineda Post-Injury, Pre-Draft Dilemma

In a perverse way, I'm glad the Yankees have starting pitcher Michael Pineda earmarked for the 15-day disabled list (shoulder tendinitis) before Opening Day.

To clarify, I would never cheer for any player to get injured; that's not my style. But from a fantasy perspective, this situation should be a fascinating case study of Jittery Fantasy Guy/Gal vs. Rational-Thinking Fantasy Guy/Gal, as both types prepare for their drafts sometime between today and the Wednesday "opener" of Cardinals-Marlins (Miami's official christening of its new stadium).

If you have already drafted Pineda, part of the blockbuster offseason trade involving the Mariners (Jesus Montero) and Yankees, there's no reason to do anything rash in the coming days. Simply wait a week or two to assess what might happen with Pineda (9 wins, 3.74 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 173 strikeouts last year with Seattle) getting some rest before making a rehab start or two. Besides, it's not like you'd get market value with any panic trades. For better or worse, you'll just have to stick it out for a bit.

As for those who have yet to draft...

Prior to Friday's erratic start against the Phillies and subsequent complaints of shoulder stiffness, Pineda had an Average Draft Position value of 104th overall and ranked as the 28th starting pitcher. Obviously, those numbers will dip in the coming days...but by how much? Here are some comparison questions to ponder:

1. What were your expectations of Pineda before the Yankees opened camp?

2. What will be your expectations if Pineda returns to the majors, fully healthy, by May 1?

3. Would you rather have Pineda, Atlanta's Tim Hudson (back) or the Cards' Chris Carpenter (nerve irritation) for the season ahead?

4. Where would you prioritize Pineda amongst Max Scherzer, Derek Holland, Brandon Morrow, Wandy Rodriguez—four pitchers ranked somewhere in the 30s—from May 1-Sept. 30 only?

If your answers are largely optimistic, then it makes sense to only let Pineda slide to Round 13 or 14. If your answers are predominantly pessimistic, there's probably no time before Round 17 that warrants any consideration. In fact, you may be privately thrilled when someone else grabs Pineda at his adjusted value.

Let someone else deal with that potential headache. Right? Wrong? Only time will tell.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.