Big 12 Tournament 2012: Baylor Performance Will Foreshadow NCAA Tourney Run

The Baylor Bears are good enough to play with any team on any given day.

Unfortunately, they've crumbled against good competition this year and fell to both Kansas and Missouri twice in Big 12 play as well as losses to both Iowa State and Kansas State.

The Cyclones and Wildcats were both extremely feisty this season and have the potential to spring upsets left and right.

The Bears, who open their Big 12 tournament chase on Thursday, get a crack at redemption versus Kansas State right off the bat.

This tournament will be a perfect glimpse of what we can expect from Perry Jones III and Baylor in the NCAA Tournament later this month.

PJIII is one of the best prospects in this year's draft class, but the 6'11" sophomore was a nonentity in most of the Bears' losses.

For instance, in only two of Baylor's six losses this year did Jones score in double-digits. The other performances included: eight points against Mizzou, five points against Kansas, four points against Mizzou and four points against Kansas State.

It is hardly a coincidence that a guy who is rated in the top 15, and in some cases top 10, draft prospects in the class has worst performances in his team's losses.

Thus, if Baylor is able to overcome K-State in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tourney, they'll get a crack at Kansas (unless they are miraculously upset) in the semifinals.

How Baylor fares in their conference tournament will indicate how they'll play in the NCAA tournament. 

If PJIII and the Bears can't hang with the best, then we'll see an early exit from the big dance. If they come to play and actually make a run for the Big 12 title, we'll know there is a chance of them making noise the following weeks. 

It all starts in Kansas City for Baylor, but it could just as easily end there as well. An early exit in the Big 12 tournament means an early exit in the NCAA tournament is on the horizon.