Duke vs UNC: Bold Predictions for Tonight's Showdown

North Carolina is going to win a well-played and exciting Tobacco Road showdown with Duke. They will accomplish this on the strength of the pivotal home-court advantage and a big advantage in the paint. 

This will be enough to propel the No. 5-ranked Tar Heels over the No. 10-ranked Blue Devils. It will also hand Duke their first straight back-to-back loss in three years. 

Here is how this game is going to pan out. 

North Carolina Will Grab 20 Offensive Rebounds

The matchup on the boards is decidedly lopsided—especially when the Tar Heels have the ball. With big men like Tyler Zeller and John Henson owning the paint, the guard-heavy Duke squad is going to have a hard time grabbing any boards. 

On the season, North Carolina is seventh in the nation with a 40 percent offensive rebounding mark. 

This essentially gives them the edge on the offensive glass in any game they play, and it gives them a huge edge in this one. 

The Blue Devils are only grabbing defensive rebounds at 68.4 percent. That ranks them a shockingly low 217th in the nation. 

North Carolina Will Have at Least 17 Turnovers

The Tar Heels have a hard time protecting the basketball. They are 88th in the nation with 12.6 turnovers per game. 

They will have more than that in this one. Duke's best chance on defense will be to pressure the guards before they get the ball inside, and the Blue Devils have the athletes to do this.

Duke has three players averaging at least a steal per game with Seth Curry, Austin Rivers and Ryan Kelly.

Curry and Rivers will provide the pressure on the perimeter, and Kelly will be there down low to help deflect errant passes that come in the face of that pressure. This is going to lead to plenty of turnovers and easy points for Duke.

Victory for UNC 

You can always expect a team's best effort in a rivalry like this, and this game will be no different. Duke will keep this one close by hitting a high percentage of their outside shots, while the Tar Heels will punish Duke on the inside. 

Ultimately, that inside game will prevail, as it will wear Duke down and force them into foul trouble. This is going to send the North Carolina crowd into a frenzy, and that will carry them to the finish line. 

Prediction: North Carolina 76, Duke 71