2012 Australian Open: 2 Bold Title Predictions

Welcome to the final rounds of the 2012 Australian Open!

When the tournament started, there were two hundred-odd players in both draws, but now, as we enter the semifinal round, most are gone.  In fact, both the men's and women's sides feature the top-ranked contenders and tournament favorites!

But that still leaves tennis fans with plenty of intrigue to watch for: Will Maria Sharapova make it through a semifinal matchup with women's tennis' best young player, Petra Kvitova?  Can Victoria Azarenka go from pretender to contender with a win over Kim Clijsters?  Will Roger Federer finally put some of his Rafael Nadal demons to rest?  Can Novak Djokovic defend his title and continue his remarkable run of success?

Although I cannot predict the future (if I did, the government would no doubt have me locked up somewhere), I've done by best to dig through some history and statistics and combined them with gut instincts to provide two bold predictions for the final rounds of the Australian Open!

Novak Djokovic Will Defend His Australian Open Title

He's just that good.  I know he dropped a set to Lleyton Hewitt but did you really think that match was in doubt?  It's getting near the end of the second week and Djokovic has not felt any heat.  Can anyone beat him?

Right now it doesn't look that way.  His 2011 season was incredible and Djokovic shows no signs of slowing down.  His fitness is at peak levels, he is playing in his physical prime and tennis just finished the offseason so he is fresh.  His skill level is better than ever: in particular his serve is no longer a liability and he is completely dictating play with his forehand. The forehand was always the strongest part of Djokovic's game but now he gets so much depth and power on his shots that opponents are playing well behind the baseline.  In 2011, he even used it to blow Nadal off the court five times!

If he beats Ferrer, which is very likely, Djokovic will face Andy Murray in the semis.  The Scot has made two straight finals but he lost both handily, including to Djokovic in straight sets last year.  There is nothing new in his game to suggest the result will be any different this time around.  

In the final, he will get (you guessed it!) either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal.  Both champions have owned him in the past but that all changed in 2011.  Federer played better against him last year but is he likely to survive a tough finals matchup with Djokovic after facing the grueling task of finishing Nadal?  For his part, the Spaniard hasn't figured Djokovic out since 2010 and, considering that he has looked rusty this entire tournament and is dealing with lingering injuries, his chances against the surging Serb are slim.  

So, look for Djokovic to defend his title and start a new 2012 run!

Maria Sharapova Will Win the 2012 Australian Open

I promise I didn't just pick her to have an excuse to search Google Images for the right photo. Promise.  What I can't promise is that all my jokes will be good...the evidence is staring right in front of you.

Anyway, picking Sharapova is bold because she has not been the top player in women's tennis for years.  She has not won a Grand Slam since 2008 and her serve remains a serious liability in big matches.

But Sharapova has steadily improved since 2010 and looks better than any time since her run of shoulder injuries began several years ago.  She reached the 2011 Wimbledon Final and lost only three matches from the start of the clay-court season in March through the end of Wimbledon in July!  

Since then, she has continued to rebound physically and looks as good as ever entering her semifinal match with Petra Kvitova.  It's a tough matchup for Sharapova because Kvitova is the best young player on the women's tennis tour.  But if Sharapova can keep her double faults under control and make her serve a neutral aspect of the match (rather than a fatal liability) her punishing groundstrokes should be enough to get her to the final and beyond!