Rafael Nadal Will Have to Wait Until France for Next Grand Slam

Through all of his career accomplishments, Rafael Nadal is not set up well to win his next two matches and take the Australian Open. To do that, he will need to beat a rejuvenated Roger Federer in the semis and then likely Novak Djokovic in the finals. That is simply not going to happen. 

Nadal has too many question marks right now, and they were exposed in his match against Tomas Berdych. While the officiating was terrible, Nadal was flustered and too emotional about the calls. For other players, that temper works, but that has never been part of Nadal's game.

Also, while Nadal has always made running around a big part of his offense, he did that far too much against Berdych. If he was running around against the largely one-dimensional Berdych, the pressure Federer puts on him will be too much. 

Berdych doesn't do a lot more than serve well, and he doesn't have the kind of endurance that Nadal or Federer has. Rafa can rely on a late-round collapse from the big Czech, the same is not true for Fed-Ex. 

But the most troubling element of this match was the scoreboard. It wasn't just that Nadal running around; he dropped the first set and managed only a tiebreak victory in the second. That is how close the world No. 2 was to falling down 0-2. 

That is the kind of thing that Federer will thrive off of. He won't let Nadal back in the match after taking a big lead, and won't crumble in the final two sets like Berdych did. 

Federer's game is a lot more complete than Berdych's, and is healthier than Nadal. If the two were healthy, this would be a much better matchup. But Nadal's shoulder is giving him trouble, and he's clearly playing with an injured knee. 

While he's won in Australia, Rafa is nowhere near the player away from clay that he is on it. The battle is much closer between the two away from France. 

That will all be too much to overcome against Federer, who hasn't dropped a set and has won a match without even taking the court. 

Everything is working in Federer's favor here, and he is playing too well to not take advantage of that. Nadal will win the French Open in June, but his quest for Grand Slam No. 11 will have to wait until then.

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