Super Bowl Line: Why It Will Take Courage to Pick Patriots over Giants

The idea of the New England Patriots being favored to beat the New York Giants is nothing we haven't seen before. According to VegasInsider.com, the Pats were favored by 12 over the Giants ahead of Super Bowl XLII.

As I'm sure you remember, the Patriots lost.

Because of that, you have to be at least a little worried about the Pats as we speed towards Super Bowl XLVI. They're playing the Giants again, and this Giants team is even more dangerous than the team the Pats ran into four years ago.

But the spread favors the Pats anyway. Per Bovada, New England is a three-point favorite over the G-Men.

Does that line make you nervous? 

It should. I for one have already outlined why the Giants are a tough matchup for the Patriots, and I'm of the mind that they're actually a better team from top to bottom. The Giants struggled during the regular season, yes, but they really took off once they finally got healthy at the end of the season.

There are two things the Pats (and those who would bet on them) should be frightened of. The first is the fact that the Giants still have a killer defensive line, meaning they can bother Tom Brady in the same way they bothered him in Super Bowl XLII. The second is the fact that Eli Manning is now an elite quarterback, and he has a couple very dangerous wide receivers to throw to.

But the Patriots can beat the Giants, let's make no mistake about that. If you want to bet on them, you have to trust in a couple different things.

Above all, you have to trust that Tom Brady will be Tom Brady. He failed in this regard in the AFC Championship Game, completing only 22 of his 36 passes and throwing two picks against the Baltimore Ravens. Brady was lucky to get away with such a lousy performance against the Ravens. He will not be that lucky again.

For Brady to be Brady, his offensive line is going to need to be at its very best. Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Jason Pierre-Paul are going to be coming for Brady, and it's up to his O-line to make sure they don't get to him. If they do, the Patriots are doomed. Doomed, I say.

Thirdly, it is absolutely imperative that New England's secondary keeps Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz in front of them at all times. If not at all times, most of the time will do. If Manning is finding both of them downfield with any kind of regularity, the Pats are, you guessed it, doomed.

These things can happen. They're not likely to happen, mind you, but they can happen.

The question is whether you're willing to bet on the Patriots doing these things and winning the game because of it. If you have it in mind to do that, you're probably looking for some assurances.

Well, too bad. If you're looking to bet on the Patriots, you're going to have to be bold.

There's no other way I can put it. The truth is that this matchup favors the Giants. The spread may not say so, but that's how it is. You're better off looking at the Patriots as an underdog and approaching them as an underdog. Instead of asking if they can do what they're supposed to, ask if they can do what they're not supposed to.

On the bright side, the Patriots doing something they're not supposed to is not an unprecedented idea. A decade ago, they beat the St. Louis Rams in the Super Bowl despite being double-digit underdogs.

Maybe some of that magic still exists in the Foxborough area.