2012 Australian Open: Why Rafa and Federer Will Struggle to See the Semis

The 2012 Australian Open draw has officially been released, and naturally, tennis fans around the world are not hesitating to voice their opinions and predictions. Longtime fans of Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer are certainly used to feeling comfortable with the chances of watching their beloved legends play through the late parts of the tournament.

These voices shouldn't necessarily be so quick to speak up as the upcoming Slam approaches.

In order to justify the possibility that neither star will reach the semifinals, it is necessary to examine the players themselves, along with their respective quarters in the draw.

We'll start with Federer:

With his impressive and record-breaking victory at the ATP World Tour Finals, Federer showed the world that he is still one of the top competitors in the game. This led his fans to rightfully feel confident that 2012 could definitely be another phenomenal year for the Swiss star, even at his relatively old age of 30.

Although he did show promise in Doha to start off the season, his disappointing withdrawal due to a back injury left fans concerned. Whether or not the short weeks leading up to the Aussie Open would be enough time to fully recover remains an unanswered question, but one thing is for sure—fans cannot be as confident knowing that he may not be his usual self for the start of the tournament. 

Looking at Federer's quarter of the draw, it does not appear that a first or second round upset is something to worry about. Even up to the quarter finals, he shouldn't face too much trouble, unless Fernando Verdasco, Alexandr Dolgopolov or crowd-favorite Bernard Tomic manage to put up a fight in the round of 16.

His problem will come in the quarterfinals, where he will likely face a worthy opponent. This obstacle might come in the form of Mardy Fish, the American veteran who played his best tennis in 2011. Or it might come in the form of Juan Martin Del Potro, who pulled off the unforgettable five-set victory over Roger in the 2009 U.S. Open.

Ordinarily, the experienced champion would have the edge over either Fish or Delpo, but with his injury, an upset here would not be a shock.

Rafa is in a similar situation; in the few weeks that have opened the 2012 season, he has been experiencing shoulder pain, which was evident in his straight-set loss to Frenchman Monfils in the Doha semis.

Fans of the Spaniard cannot be quick to assume that he will be playing his best tennis, either.

His quarter does not appear to be too difficult at a quick glance. Unfortunately for hopeful American fans, even if Donald Young manages to see the third round, Rafa should have no trouble dismissing him.

However, John Isner sits in a position to be his likely opponent in the round of 16. On paper, it seems like it should be a domination of a match in Rafa's favor—until you remember their last encounter in the first round of the 2011 French Open, when Isner lost an intense five-set battle.

In that match, Rafa was playing on his best surface (arguably Isner's worst) and he was healthy. If this matchup occurs again in Melbourne, it will be on Isner's best surface and he will be facing an unhealthy Rafa.

If Rafa does manage to win in the round of 16, he will most likely have to get past either Nicolas Almagro or Tomas Berdych, both top-10 players with the ability to defeat an injured Rafa.

Federer and Rafa are both capable of making the semifinals, and I wouldn't go as far as to say it is a doubtful possibility for either of them. It certainly won't be a walk in the park, though.

For players like the ones mentioned above, this Slam can definitely be viewed as a big opportunity to make an unexpected appearance in the semifinals or finals.