2012 NFL Draft: Robert Griffin III Isn't Worth Trading Up for

With Robert Griffin III’s official decision to enter the NFL draft, QB-needy teams are salivating over his game tapes.

The St. Louis Rams have the No. 2 pick, but they also have 2010 top pick Sam Bradford. That means the Rams will be looking for the highest bidder to make a deal, assuming Andrew Luck goes No. 1.

There is little doubt that Griffin has plenty of skills that will translate to the NFL, but the risk does not outweigh the reward.

He has off-the-charts arm strength and mobility that fits in the Michael Vick mold.

That’s the first problem.

He tucked the ball and ran 149 times in 2011, something that must be cut back at the pro level. He has a tendency to bail on a play about a second or two early, and that will get him crushed in the NFL. At 6'2", 220 pounds, his body can handle it…to a certain point. He missed almost the entire 2009 season with a torn ACL.

His decision making in the pocket has to improve or his body won’t last.

The other problem is his ability to overcome adversity and his mistakes. It’s no coincidence that four of his six interceptions came in losses. He rarely played from behind in 2011, but when he did the results weren’t great. B/R’s NFL draft expert Matt Miller does a terrific job of showcasing Griffin's questionable-at-times decision making in his scouting report on the Baylor QB.

I’m not saying Griffin won’t be successful in the NFL. I’m more than aware of his video game-like stats.

Griffin is Baylor's career passing leader. He completed 800 of 1,192 passes (67 percent) for 10,366 yards with 78 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. His 2,254 yards and 33 TDs rushing are records for a Bears quarterback.

He completed 291 of 402 passes (72 percent) for 4,293 yards and 37 TDs with only six interceptions this season, when he also ran for 699 yards and 10 more touchdowns.

But he’s not worth trading away a future first-rounder and more to select him. The Redskins, who have the No. 6 or 7 pick, would likely have to surrender two first-rounders to snag him. It’s just not worth it.

Griffin is the hottest name coming out of college at the moment but teams can’t overact. The potential upside of Griffin warrants a first-round pick…but not the second overall selection.