Why New England Patriots Will Ruin Tim Tebow's Magical Run

To understand why the Broncos won't beat the Patriots in the Divisional Round on Saturday, we must first understand why they didn't beat them when the two teams met in Week 15.

That day, the Broncos scored on their first three possessions, rushed for 167 yards in the first quarter and found themselves leading 16-7.

The game appeared to be ripe for the taking.

But the Broncos fumbled three times in the second quarter, Tom Brady and the offense woke up and the Patriots ended up winning easily, 41-23.

The Broncos did an excellent job of taking Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker out of the first meeting, holding the two to eight catches for 94 yards and no touchdowns.

But Aaron Hernandez owned the Broncos secondary to the tune of nine receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown, little-used Chad Ochocinco torched Denver for a 33-yard touchdown and the Patriots rushed for 141 yards and two touchdowns to accompany Brady's 320 passing yards.

The Broncos will have similar difficulties again this time around.

Part of their success against the Steelers was that they were able to pressure Ben Roethlisberger, sacking him five times. But as John Parolin of ESPN writes, attacking Brady with five or more rushers was a recipe for disaster in their first meeting:

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Denver sent at least five pass rushers on 46.3 percent of dropbacks this season, the third-highest rate in the league. But when the Broncos tried to blitz Brady, he made them pay. Brady finished 10-of-12 for 171 yards and a touchdown against five or more rushers. He set season highs for a Denver opponent in yards per attempt (14.3) and completion percentage (83.3) against extra pressure.

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As Parolin notes, the Broncos have to sustain consistent pressure without rushing more than four players. The Patriots simply have too many weapons in the passing game to take men out of coverage to pressure Brady.

But that means either taking Von Miller or Elvis Dumervil out of doing what they do best—rushing the quarterback—or dropping a less effective defensive tackle or end into coverage.

The Broncos could also use a different formation where they use Miller and Dumervil as traditional ends in a 4-3 or nickel look, though in non-passing situations that would make the Broncos susceptible against the run.

It seems too tall a task for the Broncos. Don't look for their defense to slow down the Patriots.

Which means the game will fall to the Broncos offense stringing together long drives, controlling the clock and grinding out touchdowns against New England's defense.

While we praised Tebow for his ability to throw the ball down the field against the Steelers last week, the key this week will be running the ball and limiting turnovers.

But as Parolin notes, the Patriots did well in adjustments to slow down the Broncos running attack the last time the two teams met:

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The Patriots moved from an even-spaced front (offensive tackles and centers uncovered, a traditional 4-3 look) to an odd-spaced look similar to a 3-4 defense, and had success stopping the run. Anticipating both fronts from New England will be important in preparing their running game.

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And we're talking about Bill Belichick here—he'll have some new concoction cooked up for clogging holes in the running game and confusing Tebow when he drops back to pass.

And Denver won't have the juice of its home crowd like it had last week, or a hobbled Steelers team that was lacking several key players.

Instead, the Broncos will have a fresh New England team, in Foxboro, eager to crush Tebowmania and in the process erase a three-game losing streak in the playoffs.

Whether you buy into Tebowmania or not, it's hard to imagine him pulling this one off and outscoring Tom Brady and the prolific New England offense.

Hope for a miracle, Broncos fans.

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