NFL Playoff Picks: Undermanned Texans Will Be Exposed in Baltimore

The Houston Texans won the first playoff game in franchise history on Saturday, downing the Cincinnati Bengals. That bought them a ticket to play the Baltimore Ravens in Landover, MD, and subsequently the end of their season.

Were the Texans 100 percent, I'd give them as good a shot at hoisting the trophy as any team in the NFL, Packers included; but a third string QB will not defeat the Ravens defense at home.

If you examine the Texans' performances over the final three weeks of the season, you'll see they failed mightily on third downs, even though the running really didn't miss a beat. They were 8 for 43 on third conversions during this time, and this falls on the shoulders of T.J. Yates.

The Texans lost all of those games. In fact, the only two games they've won over the past five weeks have come against the Cincinnati Bengals. They defeated them in Week 14, 20-19, and in Saturday's win on Wildcard Weekend.

The Texans do have their own dominant defense, and an impressive running game. Their makeup at this point, without the injured Matt Schaub is similar to the Ravens, so this shouldn't be a shootout.

Without Schaub, the Texans' depend even more heavily on the run than they did before he was sidelined. It plays right into the hands of the Ravens, who are number two in the league against the run.

In Week 5, the Ravens defeated the Texans 29-14. The Ravens held down the Texans' rushing attack. They limited Arian Foster to 49 yards on the ground and held the Texans to 93 yards as a team. That is 60 yards below their average.

What is more telling is that Matt Schaub was healthy for that game and the Texans' were still unable to get it done.

Ray Rice went for 101 yards in that game and the Ravens shook off two turnovers from Joe Flacco.

I expect both defenses to play well, but it will come down to ball control and big plays. On the road, in a hostile environment, the Ravens defense will rattle T.J. Yates, and the Ravens will force the key turnovers to launch them into the AFC Championship game.