Predicting Which Contract Every NBA Team Will Regret Most
Every NBA team has at least one questionable contract.
Some stand out—like the Chicago Bulls and Zach Lavine—while others are more nuanced. A great deal today may be terrible in a couple of years. Some get better with age as they near conclusion.
The league hasn't had an amnesty clause since the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, a one-time get-out-of-jail-free tool that allowed teams to remove a player from their books entirely (though the player would still get paid).
For now, though, teams are stuck with bad contracts unless they can find a suitor in trade.
The following is a list of each team (alphabetically) with its most (potentially) regrettable contract. The level of worry is ranked from 1 to 10, with 10 being the most likely issue for the team.
Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young
1 of 30
Trae Young
Atlanta Hawks
2024-25 salary: $43 million
Remaining contract: $138 million/three years (player option before final season)
When Young led Atlanta to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals after the team's four-year playoff drought, the Hawks invested heavily in him and the roster around him.
With his All-NBA third-team selection in 2021-22, his rookie-scale extension jumped to 30 percent of the cap instead of the standard 25.
Since then, the franchise hasn't won a playoff series, missing the postseason in 2023-24. The Hawks tried to pair Dejounte Murray with Young as a second lead guard, but that didn't work well enough (Murray was sent to the New Orleans Pelicans this summer).
While his talent is undeniable, not many teams are interested in an expensive, small (6'1", 164 lbs) point guard who doesn't defend and needs the ball in his hands to be effective.
In recent years, the trade market has been said to be cold on Young. Atlanta is doing its best to put a winning product around him with diminishing returns.
Potential regret level: 7/10
Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum/Jaylen Brown
2 of 30
Jayson Tatum; Jaylen Brown
Boston Celtics
2024-25 salaries: $34.8 million; $49.2 million
Remaining contracts: $348.8 million/six years (player option); $285.4 million/five years
It's difficult to find faults in what the champion Celtics have built, but their supermax extensions with Tatum and Brown raise an important issue. Just because a player qualifies for 35 percent of the cap, is the team obligated to pay above 30 percent—when no other club can match the higher rate?
Boston clearly felt it was important to give its guys the most it can for as long as possible, and the results speak for themselves. But this team may or may not age well with that much salary on the books.
It's a minor quibble.
Potential regret level: 2/10
Brooklyn Nets: Cam Johnson
3 of 30
Cam Johnson
Brooklyn Nets
2024-25 salary: $22.5-$27 million (depending on incentives)
Remaining contract: $65.5-78.7 million/three years
The Nets added Johnson as part of the Kevin Durant deal, but Mikal Bridges was recently relocated to the New York Knicks and Brooklyn looks like it's heading into a rebuild.
Johnson (28) is a good player, and maybe a team will compensate the Nets well enough to give him up in trade, but he's also old for the 2019 draft class and hasn't played in more than 66 games in a season.
He may not bring back as much as the Nets had hoped when they acquired him from the Phoenix Suns.
Potential regret level: 5/10
Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball
4 of 30
LaMelo Ball
Charlotte Hornets
2024-25 salary: $35.1 million
Remaining contract: $203 million/five years
The Hornets maxed out Ball last summer, and his extension kicks in for 2024-25. He's their franchise player, but the team has been lousy since he arrived, with little sign of turning the corner.
That's not all on Ball, though; health and other circumstances have contributed to the team's lack of success. It's just a lot to reward a player this early in his career when he hasn't necessarily built up winning habits.
At least the Hawks got to the Conference Finals with Young. The Hornets haven't made the playoffs since 2016.
Potential regret level: 8/10
Chicago Bulls: Zach LaVine
5 of 30
Zach LaVine
Chicago Bulls
2024-25 salary: $43 million
Remaining contract: $138 million/three years (player option)
The Bulls have actively tried to move off LaVine, but the price has been too steep for them. Unfortunately, injuries have made his contract a negative asset. Perhaps a healthy, revitalized season will up his value.
At his peak, the 29-year-old was a two-time All-Star, but injuries may be devastating to a player whose game is built around athleticism. Teams look at his lack of postseason success, iffy defense and injuries—and balk at his contract.
Potential regret level: 10/10
Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley
6 of 30
Evan Mobley
Cleveland Cavaliers
2024-25 salary: $11.2 million
Remaining contract: $235.5 million/six years
Mobley may develop into the next Anthony Davis. Although he's not as assertive offensively, he can be a top defender in the league.
His extension won't be officially set until the 2025-26 salary cap is announced, but the 23-year-old can earn up to 27.5 to 30 percent of the cap (by earning MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or any of the All-NBA teams).
Like Boston and Charlotte with their recent extensions, the Cavaliers seemingly paid out with little negotiation. Mobley deserved a nice deal, but was it too much?
Potential regret level: 5/10
Dallas Mavericks: Klay Thompson
7 of 30
Klay Thompson
Dallas Mavericks
2024-25 salary: $15.9 million
Remaining contract: $50 million/three years
The Mavericks advanced to the NBA Finals, but instead of sticking with continuity, they added Thompson via sign-and-trade from the Golden State Warriors.
Dallas is bringing back most of the same squad (minus Josh Green and Tim Hardaway Jr.), but does Thompson address a need?
Every team can add shooting, and the 34-year-old is one of the greatest to ever do it. However, he's recovered from serious leg injuries and isn't nearly the defender he was in his prime.
Dallas let Derrick Jones Jr. go to the LA Clippers to have the financial flexibility to bring in Thompson. In a Finals rematch vs. the Celtics, the Mavericks are significantly worse defensively at wing against Tatum and Brown.
Potential regret level: 6/10
Denver Nuggets: Michael Porter Jr.
8 of 30
Michael Porter Jr.
Denver Nuggets
2024-25 salary: $35.9 million
Remaining contract: $115 million/three years
The Nuggets do not win the 2022-23 title without Porter Jr., but the franchise paid him max dollars in 2021. That heavy investment is, in part, why the franchise wasn't able to give Bruce Brown a larger, longer contract in 2022 and why Kentavious Caldwell-Pope left in free agency to the Orlando Magic.
Paying more than the market on potential can have consequences (which is why Ball, Mobley and others are on this list), and Porter is the case study of a team going too hard, too soon financially.
Potential regret level: 9/10
Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham
9 of 30
Cade Cunningham
Detroit Pistons
2024-25 salary: $13.9 million
Remaining contract: $238.2 million/six years
Re-read the Charlotte, Cleveland and Denver slides—at least Mobley and Porter have contributed to a winning product. Cunningham has missed a lot of time and is extremely talented but may never develop into a consistent shooter.
It's just too heavy an investment, with Detroit taking on all the risk.
Cunningham's extension includes 30 percent language. If he has a breakout season, the Pistons must pay even more. While the franchise may love for him to earn All-NBA honors, was that potential price hike needed?
Potential regret level: 8/10
Golden State Warriors: Andrew Wiggins
10 of 30
Andrew Wiggins
Golden State Warriors
2024-25 salary: $26.3 million
Remaining contract: $84.7 million/three years (player option before final season)
Wiggins was an All-Star starter in 2022. His contract isn't egregious, but he faced some personal issues in 2022-23, and his game dipped last season (notably, his three-point shooting fell from 39.6 percent to 35.8, along with scoring from 17.1 to 13.2 points per contest).
That lowered the 29-year-old's trade value, and his salary may interfere with other plans (especially Jonathan Kuminga, who is due for an extension this offseason).
The best case for the Warriors is Wiggins rebounds in 2024-25.
Potential regret level: 7/10
Houston Rockets: Dillon Brooks
11 of 30
Dillon Brooks
Houston Rockets
2024-25 salary: $22.3 million
Remaining contract: $63.4 million/three years
Last summer, the Rockets pivoted from rebuilding to competing (or at least aspiring to compete). They didn't make the playoffs, but they made real progress.
Brooks was part of the veteran group of players brought in to help change the culture, but the Rockets paid a price that was a bit high and long.
Houston doesn't have much else on its books locked in beyond 2023-24, but that may change soon with extensions due for Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green.
Potential regret level: 4/10
Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton
12 of 30
Tyrese Haliburton
Indiana Pacers
2024-25 salary: $42.2 million
Remaining contract: $244.6 million/three years
Staying consistent with the other supermax-type extensions, Haliburton earned 30 percent and is paid the same salary as eight-year veteran Pascal Siakam.
Like Tatum, Brown and Mobley, Haliburton has shown what he can do to get his team deep into the playoffs, but did the Pacers need to include that criteria (given before last year's result)?
Teams are clearly doing it, but that doesn't mean they should. Indiana's trajectory with Young is similar to the Hawks', but that's only an issue if they similarly fall off.
Potential regret level: 3/10
LA Clippers: Kawhi Leonard
13 of 30
Kawhi Leonard
LA Clippers
2024-25 salary: $49.2 million
Remaining contract: $149.5 million/three years
Much was made of Leonard taking below max to help the Clippers, but even discounting by $9.9 million, it's a risky contract for L.A.
The 33-year-old just hasn't been able to stay healthy for the playoffs. If the goal is a championship, can the Clippers get there with his spotty availability record?
Potential regret level: 7/10
Los Angeles Lakers: Gabe Vincent
14 of 30
Gabe Vincent
Los Angeles Lakers
2024-25 salary: $11 million
Remaining contract: $22.5 million/two years
While Vincent's contract isn't long, he missed most of his first year with the Lakers and shot 10.7 percent from three-point range in 11 regular season games.
L.A.'s budget was so tight that it couldn't add free agents on standard contracts this offseason (outside of its two drafted players).
Vincent may bounce back with a healthy season. If so, replace the above with Jarred Vanderbilt, who similarly missed most of last season but has a longer deal (four years) with the team.
Vanderbilt gets the benefit of the doubt from his part in the Lakers' run to the 2023 Western Conference Finals.
Potential regret level: 6/10
Memphis Grizzlies: Desmond Bane
15 of 30
Desmond Bane
Memphis Grizzlies
2024-25 salary: $34-35.1 million
Remaining contract: $197.2-203.9 million/five years
Assuming Ja Morant stays healthy and avoids off-court issues, Bane's contract is a potential eyesore.
At least Memphis didn't fall into the trap of giving him a full max with 30 percent potential. While he's a gifted scorer, the Grizzlies gave him a near-max extension off the team's playoff success—another example of how quickly a team's fortune can change.
That's why an NBA franchise may want to go by the market itself, looking at who might make a massive offer in restricted free agency given how scarce cap room has become in recent years.
Potential regret level: 7/10
Miami Heat: Bam Adebayo
16 of 30
Bam Adebayo
Miami Heat
2024-25 salary: $34.8 million
Remaining contract: $237.3 million/five years
Jimmy Butler is the team's top earner, but he, Terry Rozier and Duncan Robinson all have short deals. Tyler Herro isn't cheap, but he's averaged over 20 points per game in each of the last three seasons.
If there's one player to pick on, it's Adebayo—because he's Miami's most significant long-term investment. He's also helped lead the team to two NBA Finals.
Potential regret level: 3/10
Milwaukee Bucks: Khris Middleton
17 of 30
Khris Middleton
Milwaukee Bucks
2024-25 salary: $31.7 million
Remaining contract: $65.7 million/two years (player option)
Middleton, 33, helped the Bucks win their first title since 1971. The team rewarded him financially, even if injuries slowed him considerably.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard at $48.8 million apiece, Milwaukee has minimal flexibility. Some of that is Middleton getting too much for what he brings (vs. what he brought to help win the title).
The good news for the Bucks is that it's a short contract, but he's almost sure to opt in—unless he does the opposite and re-signs for longer (at a lower dollar).
Potential regret level: 6/10
Minnesota Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns
18 of 30
Karl-Anthony Towns
Minnesota Timberwolves
2024-25 salary: $49.2 million
Remaining contract: $220.4 million/four years (player option)
The Timberwolves advanced to the Western Conference Finals, but is that sustainable?
With Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels' extensions kicking in this season, Rudy Gobert at $43.8 million (extension-eligible) and Towns' salary, the team may not make financial sense. Naz Reid is also looking for a pay hike.
If someone has to go, would that be Towns? And how many teams can and will take on that large a contract for a player who has struggled to stay healthy?
Potential regret level: 7/10
New Orleans Pelicans: CJ McCollum
19 of 30
CJ McCollum
New Orleans Pelicans
2024-25 salary: $33.3 million
Remaining contract: $64 million/two years
McCollum is still a 20-point-per-game scorer, but at almost 33 years old, he's probably getting more than the Pelicans can afford.
Younger players like Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy III are extension-eligible, but McCollum's salary may be in the way.
Historically, the Pelicans don't pay luxury taxes. Unless that changes, sacrifices will be made.
Potential regret level: 7/10
New York Knicks: OG Anunoby
20 of 30
OG Anunoby
New York Knicks
2024-25 salary: $36.6 million
Remaining contract: $212.5 million/five years (player option)
The Knicks may move Julius Randle, but his contract is too short to be regrettable. Anunoby is an excellent fit on the team, but his number came in higher than industry people expected.
The heavy investment in Anunoby contributed to the Knicks' lack of resources to retain center Isaiah Hartenstein, which may be an issue this season.
Potential regret level: 7/10
Oklahoma City Thunder: Isaiah Hartenstein
21 of 30
Isaiah Hartenstein
Oklahoma City Thunder
2024-25 salary: $30 million
Remaining contract: $87 million/three years (team option)
The Thunder have managed their team about as well as any franchise. Hartenstein was paid more than many people in the industry expected, but it's a short deal.
Maybe Isaiah Joe or Aaron Wiggins stagnate, but their long-term contracts could be significant bargains.
Potential regret level: 2/10
Orlando Magic: Franz Wagner
22 of 30
Franz Wagner
Orlando Magic
2024-25 salary: $43 million
Remaining contract: $231.2 million/six years
Wagner's extension isn't set yet and can climb to 27.5 or 30 percent of the cap, which is a lot for a team that just made it back to the playoffs after some years in the lottery.
Many in the industry were surprised that Wagner got the full max. He's respected as a player, but does his lack of outside shot work in the postseason alongside Paolo Banchero?
The Magic are betting that it will, but that's a lot of risk to assume, especially when few teams project to have cap room in 2025.
Potential regret level: 6/10
Philadelphia 76ers: Paul George
23 of 30
Paul George
Philadelphia 76ers
2024-25 salary: $43 million
Remaining contract: $211.6 million/four years (player option)
The Sixers brought the top free-agent wing to play with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. When healthy, George is a tremendous shooter, scorer and defender.
But at 34, he showed signs of slowing down in L.A. with the Clippers last season (even as an All-Star), and his health record isn't the best (though not as bad as Leonard's).
Philadelphia took a risk with immediate upside, but the contract may be haunting if the franchise doesn't go deep into the postseason.
Potential regret level: 7/10
Phoenix Suns: Bradley Beal
24 of 30
Bradley Beal
Phoenix Suns
2024-25 salary: $50.2 million
Remaining contract: $181 million/three years (player option)
The Suns traded for Beal, and while they didn't give up much to get him from the Washington Wizards, that financial commitment—along with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant—puts Phoenix in difficult financial straits for at least the next two seasons.
As the Wizards saw, dealing a player with a rare no-trade clause can be extremely difficult.
Potential regret level: 9/10
Portland Trail Blazers: Jerami Grant
25 of 30
Jerami Grant
Portland Trail Blazers
2024-25 salary: $29.8 million
Remaining contract: $132.4 million/four years (player option)
Grant, 30, is under contract for four more seasons on a team currently rebuilding.
The extension was a bit perplexing. If he was re-signed to be traded, his contract may be initially off-putting with the strict rules of the 2023 collective bargaining agreement.
Portland may trade him before the deadline, though it's not rushing to do so. Total salaries are a bit too close to the luxury-tax threshold this year and next.
It will be fascinating to see if the Blazers can get value for Grant before February or next July.
Potential regret level: 8/10
Sacramento Kings: DeMar DeRozan
26 of 30
DeMar DeRozan
Sacramento Kings
2024-25 salary: $23.4-$24.4 million
Remaining contract: $73.9-$76.9 million/three years (third year $10 million guaranteed)
DeRozan is more a question of fit. He's among the top individual scorers of his generation, but he's rarely been a three-point threat. Is he the right investment alongside the primary duo of Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox?
Perhaps coach Mike Brown can make it all fit together, but it's an iffy fit on paper as the 35-year-old isn't a high-level wing defender, doesn't space the floor and is more of an isolation scorer.
His contract isn't egregious, but was DeRozan the best use of limited resources?
Potential regret level: 3/10
San Antonio Spurs: Devin Vassell
27 of 30
Devin Vassell
San Antonio Spurs
2024-25 salary: $29.3-$31.7 million
Remaining contract: $135-$170.8 million/five years
The Spurs didn't fall into the trap of paying max on potential, but Vassell hadn't yet reached the heights of a player like Haliburton or Ball.
Credit to the organization for not going too far overboard, but the 24-year-old's contract was still a bit high.
San Antonio worked incentives into the deal, so this is just nitpicking. Perhaps Keldon Johnson underperforms, or Harrison Barnes gets a little too much for what he provides on the court. The Spurs don't have much to complain about in their books.
Potential regret level: 3/10
Toronto Raptors: Scottie Barnes
28 of 30
Scottie Barnes
Toronto Raptors
2024-25 salary: $43 million
Remaining contract: $234.3 million/six years
Barnes may jump to 30 percent of the cap if he qualifies. The Raptors didn't make the playoffs and are assuming all the risk. Like the deals for Haliburton, Young, Mobley, Cunningham, etc., should teams pay the most for as long as possible?
Barnes and Haliburton were All-Stars in 2023-24, which makes them relatively safe bets, but the Hawks paid Young too much too early and have struggled to win ever since.
Potential regret level: 3/10
Utah Jazz: John Collins
29 of 30
John Collins
Utah Jazz
2024-25 salary: $26.6 million
Remaining contract: $53.2 million/two years (player option)
Collins' contract is short, so the Jazz may be able to turn him around when he's expiring. He's an NBA rotation player/borderline starter, but his salary doesn't match production.
The Hawks faced serious financial issues with their payroll, but Utah sent a second-round pick to Atlanta to take Collins into its cap space.
It didn't make a lot of sense at the time and hasn't aged particularly well.
Potential regret level: 6/10
Washington Wizards: Jordan Poole
30 of 30
Jordan Poole
Washington Wizards
2024-25 salary: $29.7-$33.9 million
Remaining contract: $95.5-$108.3 million/three years
The Wizards took Poole from the Warriors in June 2023 for Chris Paul, with a 2030 first-round pick (top-20 protected) as the primary incentive to absorb his unpleasant contract. Steph Curry is under contract through 2027; it's reasonable that the protection will drop the selection into the second round.
Poole's production doesn't match his contract, and the Wizards didn't get enough from the Warriors to take it on unless the guard can rehabilitate his value this coming season.
Potential regret level: 9/10
*Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X/Twitter @EricPincus.
.png?w=600 "2027 NFL Mock Draft 🔮")
.jpg?w=600 "Undrafted Free Agent Tracker ✍️")