The Case Against the NBA's Top 10 Title Favorites In 2025
With much of the NBA offseason tinkering complete, it's not (quite) too early to name the title favorites for the 2024-25 season. However, even the reigning-champion Boston Celtics have weaknesses in their quest to repeat.
Via FanDuel, which teams have the best odds to win the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy in 2024-25? Why are they ranked so high, and what's the case against them?
The following list counts down from 10 to one, with honorable mention for the team most likely to upset the leaderboard.
No. 10: Los Angeles Lakers
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Los Angeles Lakers (47-35)
2023-24 Playoffs: 4-1 loss to Denver Nuggets in Round 1
Odds: +3,500
Why So High?
LeBron James and Anthony Davis. James may be older, but as he showed in the Paris Olympics, he's still one of the most dominant players in the world.
Case Against
The Lakers weren't great last season, and aside from adding a couple of drafted players (Dalton Knecht and Bronny James), they haven't made any moves to improve. Does the coaching change from Darvin Ham to JJ Redick make that much of a difference?
L.A. had some injuries last year, but James and Davis were relatively sound. If everything goes right, sure, the Lakers have a shot, but No. 10 overall seems high. Just "hoping" not to draw the Denver Nuggets isn't a viable strategy.
No. 9: Phoenix Suns
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Phoenix Suns (49-33)
2023-24 Playoffs: 4-0 loss to Minnesota Timberwolves in Round 1
Odds: +2,400
Why So High?
Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are among the league's best scorers. The team should theoretically be better than it was a year ago.
Case Against
The trio of Bradley Beal, Durant and Booker is impressive on paper, but in practice, three scorers who need the ball in their hands to be effective are duplicative. Booker has improved as a playmaker, but he's naturally a finisher. Beal has struggled to stay healthy for much of the past five years.
Having Royce O'Neale for the entire season (after last year's deadline pickup) and the fortunate signing of Tyus Jones should help. But this team is oddly constructed and not quite top-tier despite the star power.
No. 8: Milwaukee Bucks
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Milwaukee Bucks (49-33)
2023-24 Playoffs: 4-2 loss to Indiana Pacers in Round 1
Odds: +1,300
Why So High?
Top-heavy star teams (like the Lakers, Suns and now Bucks—with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard) may get more love than they deserve.
Case Against
Even landing three solid players on minimum contracts (Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright), the Bucks don't have the depth. Antetokounmpo is good enough to keep pace with the rest of the East over the regular season, and Lillard is one of his generation's elite scorers.
Injuries have diminished Khris Middleton's game, and the team hasn't been as competitive since he started to fall off. While Jrue Holiday isn't as explosive as Lillard, the Bucks miss his backcourt defense badly.
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No. 7: Minnesota Timberwolves
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Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26)
2023-24 Playoffs: 4-1 loss to Dallas Mavericks in Western Conference Finals
Odds: +1,200
Why So High?
Coming off last year's result, the Timberwolves may be underrated on the list
Case Against
Perhaps the oddsmakers agree that Minnesota overachieved last season. Point guard may be an issue, as Mike Conley is almost 37, and Rob Dillingham (No. 8 in the draft) is only 19. Karl-Anthony Towns has also struggled to stay healthy.
Minnesota is very good and should be a playoff team, but Rudy Gobert-led teams tend to be vulnerable in the postseason, especially if opponents can draw him away from the basket.
No. 6: Dallas Mavericks
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Dallas Mavericks (50-32)
2023-24 Playoffs: 4-1 loss to Boston Celtics in NBA Finals
Odds: +1,000
Why So High?
Do the oddsmakers have no respect for Dallas' NBA Finals appearance, ranking the Mavs third in the West? They still have Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, no?
Case Against
Derrick Jones Jr. was a low-maintenance role player and key defender for the Mavericks in their surprise run to the Finals. However, Dallas let him go in free agency and chose to add another shooter in Klay Thompson, who isn't the defender he was back in the championship years with the Golden State Warriors before multiple leg injuries.
Banking on Naji Marshall to fill Jones' role may be too optimistic.
No. 5: New York Knicks
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New York Knicks (50-32)
2023-24 Playoffs: 4-3 loss to Indiana Pacers in Round 2
Odds: +900
Why So High?
The injured Knicks were a game away from the Eastern Conference Finals. With health and the addition of Mikal Bridges, New York should be better than 2023-24.
Case Against
The Knicks look like they're poised for a strong season, but can Tom Thibodeau manage his players' minutes so they're not burnt out and injured in the playoffs? Historically, he can't seem to help himself—he's a great coach, but he tends to grind his players down with a heavy workload.
No. 4: Philadelphia 76ers
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Philadelphia 76ers (47-35)
2023-24 Playoffs: 4-3 loss to New York Knicks in Round 1
Odds: +900
Why So High?
Already with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, the 76ers reloaded by adding Paul George—one of the biggest names and scorers in this year's free-agent market.
Case Against
Until you've shown you can do it, you can't do it. Embiid, with the Sixers, and George, with multiple teams, haven't gotten it done at the highest level over their lengthy All-Star careers.
Why is this year any different? The Sixers have a nice roster, but as many Philadelphia fans tend to suspect, they always seem to fall short.
No 3: Denver Nuggets
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Denver Nuggets (57-25)
2023-24 Playoffs: 4-3 loss to Minnesota Timberwolves in Round 2
Odds: +900
Why So High?
Nikola Jokić is still a serious problem for the NBA.
Case Against
The unique chemistry of their championship starting five—Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Jokić —was special, but economics led to Caldwell-Pope's departure to the Orlando Magic.
The team wasn't as good last year after losing Bruce Brown Jr. and Jeff Green. Lack of depth is a real issue. The additions of Dario Šarić and Russell Westbrook don't offset losing a key starter.
No. 2: Oklahoma City Thunder
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Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
2023-24 Playoffs: 4-2 loss to Dallas Mavericks in Round 2
Odds: +700
Why So High?
Adding Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein to a team that was already on the come up, the Thunder are young, deep and talented.
Case Against
It's difficult to argue against the Thunder, who finished (via tiebreaker) as the No. 1 seed last year in the West and have since improved. But this is still a very young, inexperienced team.
Caruso has a championship with the Lakers, and Hartenstein was vital to the Knicks in their run last season. The Thunder's core players added experience in last year's postseason, but the team may be a year away when it comes to having the "know-how" to close out later rounds of the playoffs.
No. 1: Boston Celtics
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Boston Celtics (64-18)
2023-24 Playoffs: Championship
Odds: +300
Why So High?
The Celtics return essentially the same rotation that just won the title.
Case Against
The best argument against the Celtics is that the Mavericks were a lower-tier NBA Finals team. As great as Dončić and Irving were last year, Dallas was just a poor matchup against the Celtics. If a more powerful team like the Nuggets with Jokić gets through the West, that's a bigger challenge for Boston.
Complacency shouldn't be an issue, but health and luck are real variables. Boston should be the favorite, but there's a reason no team has repeated since the Warriors (in 2017 and 2018).
The Field
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What of the remaining franchises? Who has the best chance to upset the "favorites?"
Not the rebuilding teams with +100,000 odds: Portland Trail Blazers, Detroit Pistons, Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Hornets, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards, Brooklyn Nets and Utah Jazz. The Raptors stand out as the best of the bunch, but they're not title contenders.
The San Antonio Spurs (+15,000) leapfrogged the Atlanta Hawks (+34,000)—it's too early for Victor Wembanyama, and the Hawks haven't been able to reproduce their early success with Trae Young.
The post-George LA Clippers (+8,000) are no longer considered a contender, but the Houston Rockets (+8,000) have real talent and the trade bait to climb this season. Counting out the Golden State Warriors (+4,500) with Stephen Curry seems obtuse, and the Miami Heat (+5,500) seem to get to the Finals every other season.
The Memphis Grizzlies (+4,000) are hoping to rebound after a lost year. The Orlando Magic (+4,000), Cleveland Cavaliers (+5,000) and New Orleans Pelicans (+4,500) are viable playoff teams. The Sacramento Kings (+5,500) just missed the postseason.
But how are the Indiana Pacers (+5,500), who advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals, so low? Yes, they were swept by the Celtics, but after two hard-fought series against the Bucks and Knicks?
The Pacers' 16th overall ranking seems a significant slight and the one most likely to exceed oddsmakers' expectations.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X/Twitter @EricPincus.
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