Why Every NFL Team Could Finish in Last Place in 2024
It's that point of eternal optimism on the NFL calendar. So let's be pessimistic.
As training camps get underway, it's easy to see how most teams could make a run if everything goes right. But it's just as easy to see how Murphy's Law could take any of them down.
With that in mind, here's why each NFL squad could finish last in their division and miss the playoffs in 2024.
AFC East
1 of 8
Buffalo Bills: Without his top two receivers on paper from 2023, and with the team taking a hit altogether in free agency, Josh Allen can't carry a Bills team that is challenged heavily by Aaron Rodgers' return and a potential resurgence in New England.
Miami Dolphins: The injury issues that plagued Tua Tagovailoa earlier in his career become an issue again, and a roster that also bled a little in the offseason can't keep up in a strong division.
New England Patriots: That aforementioned resurgence doesn't come to a team that has a fresh feel at head coach and quarterback but possesses far less talent than the rest of the division.
New York Jets: Status quo for the Bills and Dolphins and another injury or poor play from Aaron Rodgers should do the trick for a team that could easily contend for a Super Bowl or wind up in the AFC East basement.
AFC North
2 of 8
Baltimore Ravens: A slightly depleted roster with an offensive line that could easily become a liability lets Lamar Jackson down, or Jackson's pre-2023 injury issues perk up again in a division without a sub-par team.
Cincinnati Bengals: Another injury to quarterback Joe Burrow could absolutely land Cincinnati in the No. 4 spot, but it's hard to imagine much else leading to such a shockingly bad result in Cincinnati.
Cleveland Browns: Quarterback Deshaun Watson is a wild card who hasn't participated in a full season since 2020, and he doesn't have the weapons that reside in Baltimore and Cincinnati. Plus, the Steelers continue to have a high ceiling thanks to the Russell Wilson/Justin Fields potential and a talented defensive core.
Pittsburgh Steelers: They haven't had a losing season since 2003, but they could be due with Cleveland getting Watson back for what should be a full campaign. If Wilson or Fields can't get it together, they likely finish last for the first time this century.
AFC South
3 of 8
Houston Texans: Considering their trajectory as well as issues in Tennessee, only a major injury to quarterback C.J. Stroud would likely send the Texans from first to worst in 2024.
Indianapolis Colts: It's essentially a wild-card rookie season for Anthony Richardson, whom they haven't exactly spoiled with veteran weapons and supporters.
Jacksonville Jaguars: If Stroud, Richardson and Will Levis break out in Houston, Indy and Tennessee, an unreliable and inconsistent Jags team could wind up back in a familiar spot.
Tennessee Titans: There's a damn good chance Levis isn't the answer after coming back to earth following a hot start as a rookie, and there's little doubt the Titans have less talent overall than the rest of the members of this division.
AFC West
4 of 8
Denver Broncos: They perform just the way they're expected to in a division featuring the two-time defending Super Bowl champions as well as competitive and/or talented squads in Las Vegas and the Chargers.
Kansas City Chiefs: There's no way the Chiefs go from first to worst unless Patrick Mahomes misses a ton of games and, sadly, that's always possible.
Las Vegas Raiders: If neither Gardner Minshew II nor Aidan O'Connell prove to be the answer at quarterback, and if Bo Nix can creep up on the league a little bit in Denver, fourth place easily happens.
Los Angeles Chargers: Look, it happened last year despite the fact the Broncos were a mess and Justin Herbert started 13 games. With a lot of adjustments coming to the offense and the defense looking subpar, the path exists again.
NFC East
5 of 8
Dallas Cowboys: Lame-duck-related tensions with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb boil over and the Cowboys implode under heavy scrutiny. They blow it all up midseason.
New York Giants: The Giants finished third or fourth in five of Saquon Barkley's six seasons with the team, and now he's gone. Unless Daniel Jones suddenly becomes decent, fourth place is a probability.
Philadelphia Eagles: They lost six of the last seven games they played in 2023, and you never know what Jones and Jayden Daniels could bring to New York and Washington.
Washington Commanders: New coach/quarterback combo Dan Quinn and Daniels may need time to adjust in a talented division. The Commanders are within toss-up range of this being a third straight last-place campaign.
NFC North
6 of 8
Chicago Bears: You never know with a rookie, even one as talented as Caleb Williams. The Lions and Packers remain bigger favorites, and Minnesota has enough talent to beat Chicago out if Williams doesn't find an early groove.
Detroit Lions: It would take significant lost time for Jared Goff or a slew of other key players.
Green Bay Packers: It would take significant lost time for Jordan Love or a slew of other key players.
Minnesota Vikings: They could generally perform exactly as expected, while their division rivals generally do the same. They're just not as talented, pretty much across the board. This is at least a mini rebuild for the Vikes.
NFC South
7 of 8
Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins can't stay on the field and rookie Michael Penix Jr. isn't ready for a Falcons team that we already know has a mediocre-at-best defense.
Carolina Panthers: Anything resembling 2023 for Bryce Young almost certainly means another no-doubt last-place showing for the Panthers.
New Orleans Saints: A roster that has been slowly declining for years finally breaks while Cousins, Young and Baker Mayfield guide their teams to strong campaigns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: We discover that Mayfield's strong 2023 season was a fluke, and an aging roster can't help him or the team recover as Cousins, Young and the still-experienced Saints put up solid results.
NFC West
8 of 8
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray misses six-plus games for a third consecutive season, or he manages not to but the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks keep the status quo and still squash the division's least talented team.
Los Angeles Rams: They're competitive but at a crossroads with a lot of key veterans. If they start poorly, they could throw in the towel and host a fire sale. At that point, a last-place finish would become ideal.
San Francisco 49ers: It's possible Murray and Matthew Stafford and Co. keep the Cards and Rams competitive while the 49ers fall victim to injuries and/or the fact it's still possible Brock Purdy comes spiraling back to earth like a dramatically overperforming seventh-round pick.
Seattle Seahawks: If Murray returns to help the Cardinals and the Rams and 49ers just avoid catastrophe, the Seahawks could easily drop back to the bottom of this division.
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