4 Teams with Realistic Trade Packages for Maple Leafs Forward Mitch Marner
Problem in Toronto? It's Mitch Marner's fault. Or so runs public sentiment these days, anyway.
With the Maple Leafs exiting the first round of the playoffs for the seventh time in the last eight seasons, it feels likely general manager Brad Treliving will choose to break up the team's core.
Marner, 27, has been the target of most fan and media ire. And with one year left on his contract, he's the best candidate to be moved.
One wrinkle in this theory is Marner's full no-move clause (NMC), which he would need to choose to waive. But the lure of a fresh start elsewhere may mean he will choose to explore his options.
His cap hit is $10.9 million AAV for one more year, and that's not as significant as it sounds for a player of his caliber—especially for teams with space and the desire to jump to the next level.
In an ideal world, the return for a player like Marner would look something like a decent roster player, a high-level prospect and a high pick (probably a first-rounder). Because his NMC puts the ball in his court, though, the Leafs' hands will be tied in terms of possible return.
Trade partners will be limited to places Marner is willing to go, and within that, teams with cap space, assets attractive to the Leafs and potential extension viability.
Chicago Blackhawks
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Chicago Gets: Marner
Toronto Gets: Oliver Moore (C), Kevin Korchinski (D) and 2024 first-rounder (TBL, No. 20)
Seth Jones may seem the obvious choice to head out of Chicago in a Marner trade, but while he would fill a need, acquiring the 29-year-old isn't realistic for Toronto given his $9.5 million cap hit through 2029-30.
With Jones' defensive partner, Alex Vlasic, recently signing a six-year extension, Kevin Korchinski could be available as a trade chip.
He's a much cheaper option than Jones at a $918,000 cap hit and plays a swift-skating, puck-moving game. On the surface, the 19-year-old had a rough rookie season this past year, being thrown directly into the fire. In a better environment where he can improve his game away from the puck, he has the potential to be an effective offensive defenseman.
Oliver Moore is fast and agile and has excellent attention to detail. The University of Minnesota center won't be ready right away—he has work to do on his consistency, for one—but he could be a potent addition if the Leafs are patient.
For Chicago, adding Marner beside Connor Bedard is a boost in itself.
The 2023 No. 1 pick is a human cheat code, and if he and Marner jell, there's potential for Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl-like chemistry.
Giving up Moore means the Blackhawks keep Frank Nazar, the 2022 No. 13 pick who recently signed his entry-level contract, and sending the Lightning's first-rounder (20th overall) allows Chicago to keep this year's second overall pick.
Vegas Golden Knights
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Vegas Gets: Marner
Toronto Gets: Shea Theodore (D) and 2024 first-rounder
Before we get angry comments about Vegas finding a way to add yet another star player, let us state that if any team can figure out how to fit Marner under the cap, it's the Golden Knights.
Don't believe them? Just look at their trade history/cap shenanigans in the last two seasons.
Shea Theodore comes back at around half ($5.2 million) the cap hit of Marner with the same amount of time left on his contract and bolsters the Leafs' defense. They can use the first-rounder that comes with him to add a good forward prospect.
Most importantly, they won't bring back someone in this trade who blocks other forward prospects they already have—most likely Easton Cowan or Fraser Minten—and can add those guys from within their system at a lower cost.
Would this require other money moves on Vegas' part? Yes. Would it be worth it to maximize 27-year-old star Jack Eichel's prime? Also yes. In the worst-case scenario, they can put Mark Stone on LTIR again, especially given how his back looked during the first round against the Dallas Stars.
It's a move that's old hat for the Golden Knights.
Utah
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Utah Gets: Marner
Toronto Gets: Marner for Alex Kerfoot (C/LW), Maveric Lamoureux (D), and 2024 second-rounder
If there's a better way for Utah to make a splash in its first season than acquiring Marner, it's not coming to mind. It also allows him to put his mark on what is effectively a new franchise outside a media-heavy market.
Ideally, this sort of trade would include a first-rounder, but the Leafs' hands are tied by the no-move, and the chances of Utah trading its sixth overall pick are low.
The second-rounder sweetens the pot, though, because Toronto doesn't have one this season and the team formerly known as the Arizona Coyotes has three.
On the Leafs' end, Alex Kerfoot gives it a cheaper player it's familiar with who can be effective alongside the young stars they're retaining. Maveric Lamoureux, a 2022 first-rounder, is still a raw prospect but has a legitimate NHL ceiling. He's 6'7" but a fluid skater—a quality that is becoming less rare but no less beneficial—and combines his size with an awareness of how to use it.
New Jersey Devils
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New Jersey Gets: Marner
Toronto Gets: Marner for John Marino (D), 2025 first-rounder
With Jack Hughes on the mend from shoulder surgery, having a ready-to-go infusion of offense in October is important. Put Marner alongside Nico Hischier and watch them fly.
The Devils would need to move an asset to make the numbers work to bring in Marner (Ondřej Palát and Erik Haula come to mind) but with Hughes ($8 million AAV), Hischier ($7.25 million AAV) and Jesper Bratt ($7.875 million AAV) locked into long-term team-friendly deals, New Jersey has the financial flexibility to pull off the deal.
On the Toronto side, John Marino is an effective defensive defenseman. With the way the Leafs tend to regress into "we need less flash and more focus" mode when making big changes, he seems like a reasonable target.
His struggles this season are uncharacteristic, and it would be fair to expect the 26-year-old to bounce back from his minus-six performance to something closer to the plus-21 player he was the season before.
With a new system and a new coach, he can likely recover key aspects of his play, particularly his ability to control the game in transition. A first-round pick in 2025 is something the Leafs don't have, and next year's draft class—with players such as James Hagens, Michael Misa and Porter Martone—already looks appealing.
Salary-cap info via CapFriendly unless otherwise noted.
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