Resetting NFL QB Contract Market: How Much Is Every Starting QB Really Worth?
Now that Jared Goff has his bag and is the NFL's second-highest paid quarterback in terms of average annual value (AAV), where do the league's current/projected starting signal-callers stand in terms of pay?
Looking primarily at career stats, age, trajectory and leaguewide benchmarks, here's a rundown of the overpaid, the underpaid and everything in between.
We have excluded rookies Caleb Williams and Bo Nix, both of whom appear to be on track to start but can't be gauged before taking a single pro snap.
For the purposes of this exercise, we've assessed veterans in Washington (Marcus Mariota), New England (Jacoby Brissett) and Minnesota (Sam Darnold) who will almost certainly be replaced at some point by first-round rookies as well.
Overpaid
1 of 3
New York Giants QB Daniel Jones
AAV: $40 million
This is comedy. Jones has an 85.2 passer rating and has been a part of 22 victories in five NFL seasons. He's backup-caliber making a top-10 AAV.
What he's really worth: $10 million
New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr
AAV: $37.5 million
The 33-year-old was at his best with the Raiders half a decade ago. He's thrown one playoff touchdown pass in his career, and it doesn't appear as though that will change anytime soon.
What he's really worth: $15 million
Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith
AAV: $25 million
The 33-year-old has put up one good season out of 10, and it wasn't in 2023. He's a top-end backup at best.
What he's really worth: $12 million
Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert
AAV: $52.5 million
At age 26, the league's fourth-highest-paid quarterback has still never been a first-team or second-team All-Pro and has been named to just one Pro Bowl. He's also experienced practically no playoff success. It's just not enough, despite a ton of talent and some solid seasons on his resume.
What he's really worth: $40 million
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts
AAV: $51 million
Hurts was absolutely stellar in 2022, but he's also posted a sub-90 passer rating in each of his three other NFL campaigns. You have to wonder if the 25-year-old is becoming a one-year wonder.
What he's really worth: $40 million
Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins
AAV: $45 million
I get that the Falcons had to pay a premium considering the fact that Cousins was a rare well-accomplished quarterback on the open market, but there's little doubt that means he's overpaid as a 35-year-old zero-time All-Pro who's been a part of one career playoff win and is coming off a major injury.
What he's really worth: $35 million
Las Vegas Raiders QB Gardner Minshew II
AAV: $12.5 million
These days, you only get sub-$25 million a year if you're a borderline starter or on a rookie deal. Still, Minshew's on his fourth team in five years and sporting an 84.4 rating since the start of 2021. He should not be viewed as even a bridge.
What he's really worth: $7 million
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray
AAV: $46.1 million
Murray is an incredible talent, but it's possible he peaked in 2021, as he has limped through much of the last two seasons. The 26-year-old is being paid on a trajectory that is starting to drop off.
What he's really worth: $40 million
Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson
AAV: $39 million
The problem with Watson's contract is that it's fully guaranteed. Few will fault him for making Daniel Jones or Derek Carr money in terms of AAV. After all, the track record and the talent are there. That said, that exact number is still a tad high considering he hasn't been a consistently effective NFL player since 2020.
What he's really worth: $33 million
About Right
2 of 3
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow
AAV: $55 million
The 2020 No. 1 overall pick was clearly a star in 2021 and 2022, putting up triple-digit passer ratings in both seasons. Burrow took the Bengals to the Super Bowl in 2021 and to the AFC Championship Game the following year, but injuries slowed him down in 2023 and it's safe to say he hasn't been at his absolute best since 2021. So, he doesn't quite deserve to be the highest-paid player in NFL history.
What he's really worth: $50 million
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield
AAV: $33.3 million
The 2018 No. 1 pick deserves a ton of props (and cash) for a 4,000-yard breakout 2023 season in Tampa. That said, his track record before then explains why he isn't making elite quarterback money just yet. This is a fair spot.
What he's really worth: $30 million
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff
AAV: $53 million
Goff's new deal might seem eye-poppingly high on the surface, but the league's sixth-highest rated passer since the start of 2022 simply hit a contract year at the right time for the competitive Lions.
What he's really worth: $50 million
New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers
AAV: $37.5 million
Yeah, he's 40 and may be washed-up coming off a big injury, but when you're a four-time MVP on the way to the Hall of Fame, you need to at least be paid above the league median for starters. Rodgers is in the right territory.
What he's really worth: $35 million
Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold
AAV: $10 million
This might look like an overpay based solely on what he's accomplished, but Darnold, 26, has a lot of talent and could still come through as a late bloomer. That's worth a little more than guys like Minshew and Brissett.
What he's really worth: $8 million
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson
AAV: $8.5 million
Richardson barely played due to injury last season and thus loses a little value compared to his slotted rookie contract.
What he's really worth: $8 million
Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young
AAV: $9.5 million
Young bombed as a rookie, but we're still talking about a 22-year-old No. 1 overall pick with lots of room to grow.
What he's really worth: $9 million
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford
AAV: $40 million
Stafford hasn't been consistently healthy or overly effective since leading the Rams to a title in 2021, and momentum might not be on his side heading into his age-36 season. Still, he's an above-average QB making above-average money and his resume speaks for itself.
What he's really worth: $40 million
New England Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett
AAV: $8 million
Brissett is an occasional starter on his fifth roster in five years being paid about what you give a veteran backup with the ability to be a bridge quarterback. This checks out.
What he's really worth: $8 million
Washington Commanders QB Marcus Mariota
AAV: $6 million
See: Brissett, Jacoby.
What he's really worth: $6 million
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
AAV: $40 million
I can see why the Cowboys are unsure where to go with Prescott. As the 2024 MVP runner-up and in his prime, the 30-year-old is surely worth a lot more in terms of market value. That said, a lack of playoff success is a big factor ahead of a contract year. He's done more than higher-paid guys like Herbert, Hurts and Murray, but not to such an extent that he's overpaid for now. This will be a huge year in that regard.
What he's really worth: $42 million
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson
AAV: $52 million
His inability to finish the 2021 and 2022 seasons is indicative of a potential lack of sustainability, and he hasn't led the Ravens to much playoff success. Still, a two-time MVP with an incredible skill set has to be in this range at age 27.
What he's really worth: $54 million
Underpaid
3 of 3
Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis
AAV: $2.4 million
Considering some of the moments he had as a rookie in 2023, Levis should probably be commanding more than Cooper Rush/C.J. Beathard-level money and should at least be grouped with borderline guys like Mariota and Brissett.
What he's really worth: $7 million
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love
AAV: $13.5 million
The sample is small, but the fact is Love was an absolute star during the second half of his first season as an NFL starter. That alone makes him underpaid as he's in the same range as borderline starters like Minshew and Darnold.
What he's really worth: $25 million
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen
AAV: $43 million
The Approximate Value metric at Pro Football Reference registers Allen as the most valuable player in the NFL since the start of 2021. In his prime and with some team success already under his belt, he should be right near the top of the quarterback-pay totem pole.
What he's really worth: $56 million
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
AAV: $45 million
His deal is four years old now, which is why half-a-dozen quarterbacks make more money on an annual basis. That's criminal, because there's no doubt that as a three-time Super Bowl MVP and two-time MVP at age 28, he should be the highest-paid player in the sport.
What he's really worth: $60 million
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence
AAV: $9.2 million
The 2021 No. 1 overall pick has yet to become elite, but he's at least an average starter on paper with plenty of obvious upside. Even maintaining the status quo for the remainder of his rookie contract will likely land him a deal worth $30 million-plus a year.
What he's really worth: $25 million
Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson
AAV: $1.2 million
As bad as Wilson has been the last couple seasons, he's still a future Hall of Famer with incredible ability at age 35. This could be one of the biggest coups in sports in 2024. He should at least be getting low-end starter money like Minshew and Darnold, if not a lot more based on the chance he could rebound.
What he's really worth: $22 million
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa
AAV: $7.6 million
It's fair to wonder about his big-game ability and/or his durability, but Tagovailoa is the AFC's highest-rated passer since the start of 2022. He deserves a contract that puts him a step below the elite for now.
What he's really worth: $45 million
Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud
AAV: $9.1 million
It's only one year, but boy was it an unreal season for the 2023 No. 2 overall pick. Stroud threw interceptions on a league-low 1.0 percent of his 499 pass attempts while completing a conference-best 4.7 air yards per completed pass attempt. He had a triple-digit passer rating in the fourth quarter or overtime of one-score games, and he had an AFC-best 123.4 passer rating on deep passes as Houston won the AFC South. I'm ready to call him elite.
What he's really worth: $50 million
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy
AAV: $934,252
The final pick of the 2022 NFL draft is the highest-rated passer in NFL history among quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts, and he led the league in practically every rate-based category in 2023. That has to be enough to be on the cusp of elite QB money.
What he's really worth: $48 million
Contract information courtesy of Spotrac
.jpg?w=256 "Cowboys Schottenheimer Football")
.jpg?w=256 "49ers Future Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Cowboys Schottenheimer Football")
.jpg?w=480 "49ers Future Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Seahawks GM Reveals Draft Plan")
.jpg?w=600 "Hurts Posts After Brown Trade Report 🤨")
